Arizona Diamondbacks -185 win series opener vs. Houston Astros
Arizona Diamondbacks -185 win series opener vs. Houston Astros
With their offense already in a funk, facing the Diamondbacks' Dan Haren on Friday won't help the Houston Astros at all in the series opener at Arizona.
Interleague play returns this weekend, and for the next 17 days there are going to be some really good and really bad Al-NL matchups. Mets-Yankees this weekend is a tough series to beat. Mariners-Rockies, not so much.
Along the way with the interleague play there is also going to be one NL-only series taking place during the Al-NL schedule, and I'm going to have my eyes on these series since they get overlooked at this point on the slate so much. My beloved Astros get to take part in the first of these as Houston travels west to Arizona to meet the Diamondbacks.
This three-game set will wind up meaning less to the national media than the Seattle, Colorado series. Two last place teams are meeting in a strange time zone and it's a given this series means nothing to the immediate future for either club other than draft position a year from now in the 2010 amateur draft. By immediate I mean neither will be playing past Oct 4 this year unless there's some weird rainout make-up because the other team is still mathematically in the playoff hunt.
There will be a couple of big name hurlers taking the mound in this one, only not against each other. A Roy Oswalt (5-7, 4.66), Dan Haren (6-6, 2.33) matchup would have been nice, but they won't face each other. Instead Oswalt will meet Jon Garland (6-6, 5.61) on Saturday with a Brian Moehler (4-5, 6.95), Billy Buckner (2-2, 5.25) battle on Sunday. Seriously, will Baseball Tonight on ESPN even show highlights from that one?
But the game I'm looking at now is Friday's matchup with Haren on the home mound and Mike Hampton (4-7, 4.65) for the visitors. It's a pitching mismatch by all rights, and the oddsmakers agree by hanging a -185 and higher line on the Diamondbacks. But as always there is more behind the stats and odds.
Since being swept in Cincinnati in late-May, Houston has won nine of 13 and taken four consecutive series. But their 7-3 mark the last 10 comes during the club's second of three 10-game homestands this season. Arizona meanwhile has dropped three of their last four and six of their last nine, and the D-Backs haven't won a series since May 22-24 when they took two of three from the A's in Oakland.
Like Haren, Hampton got off to a tough start this season in the W-L column though it was more to do with his pitching than his offense not supporting him. The little lefthanded slinger was 2-4, with Houston 2-7, through nine starts on May 24 and sporting a 5.63 ERA. He has since won his last two trips to the mound, going seven innings in each assignment while allowing just a run both times. He looks a lot like the Mike Hampton I used to watch pitch regularly at the Astrodome in the late 90s.
Ah, but on closer inspection we see that those two most recent starts have come against the Pirates who are actually worse than the Astros this year. In fact, in his three starts vs. Pittsburgh in 2009, Hampton and the Astros are 3-0 while he's chunked 20 innings and allowed just two runs. In the other eight starts, the Astros are 1-7 while Hampy has sported a 6.42 ERA.
You look at Haren's numbers and you can't help but think he should be better than 4-4, and the team 6-6 in his starts, with a 2.33 ERA and 83-11 K/BB ratio in 85 innings. Chalk it up to simply having his turn come in the rotation on the same days that the D-Backs offense fails to show up at the office.
Arizona has supported Haren with 45 runs all season, less than four per game. But a lot of that impotency in the bats was early on; in his first eight starts this year, the Snakes crossed the plate 18 times – seven of those in one game – while in his last four starts they have scored 27 times. Not coincidentally, the Diamondbacks are 3-1 in those most recent four trips Haren has made to the mound.
Still, here's a trend that has developed in his starts while the offense has been giving Haren more support. Haren's first eight starts this season saw the bullpen give up just five runs in 15.1 IP of work (2.93). Over his last four outings, the same relief corps has allowed 12 runs in 17 innings (6.35). A couple of extra inning contests, including Haren's last start that went saw his pen work 11 innings of the 18-inning marathon win at San Diego, are included in that number.
He had two starts and a relief appearance versus the Astros when he first came up, losing both starts. He made up for some of that more recently with a winning assignment against Houston in Arizona last year in a he pitched well (7.2 IP, 3 ER).
Houston's bullpen has been superb during their little surge here. Guys with names like Chris Sampson, Jeff Fulchino and Alberto Arias have been the keys, total unknowns. Houston added another reliever after the game in lefty Wesley Wright being activated while starter Felipe Paulino hits the DL. The word is that closer Jose Valverde might also be activated for Friday's game, with my guess Alberto Arias that gets sent down whenever that takes place in this series, so keep your eyes on that possible news. Houston is coming off a couple of tough extra inning wins over the Cubs, and bringing up two 'fresh' relievers for this series makes sense with them not needing the starter until next week on the road in interleague play.
On the road is where the Astros will be for a while now as they travel to Phoenix, back to Texas to face the Rangers and then to Minnesota before their next home game. Sitting in last now, they're still just five games out of first and...
Nah! No way. Houston's offense should be simply no match for Haren on Friday night. Arizona's bats are also pathetic, but they have far more home run power than the Astros and more than a quarter-run per game average higher playing a park that has been home run friendly this season. If Hampton can keep the D-Backs hitting groundballs tonight like he's done to the Pirates the last two games, then I'll believe he might be back. But my wallet says D-Backs at the -185 and the Under 8½.
With their offense already in a funk, facing the Diamondbacks' Dan Haren on Friday won't help the Houston Astros at all in the series opener at Arizona.
Interleague play returns this weekend, and for the next 17 days there are going to be some really good and really bad Al-NL matchups. Mets-Yankees this weekend is a tough series to beat. Mariners-Rockies, not so much.
Along the way with the interleague play there is also going to be one NL-only series taking place during the Al-NL schedule, and I'm going to have my eyes on these series since they get overlooked at this point on the slate so much. My beloved Astros get to take part in the first of these as Houston travels west to Arizona to meet the Diamondbacks.
This three-game set will wind up meaning less to the national media than the Seattle, Colorado series. Two last place teams are meeting in a strange time zone and it's a given this series means nothing to the immediate future for either club other than draft position a year from now in the 2010 amateur draft. By immediate I mean neither will be playing past Oct 4 this year unless there's some weird rainout make-up because the other team is still mathematically in the playoff hunt.
There will be a couple of big name hurlers taking the mound in this one, only not against each other. A Roy Oswalt (5-7, 4.66), Dan Haren (6-6, 2.33) matchup would have been nice, but they won't face each other. Instead Oswalt will meet Jon Garland (6-6, 5.61) on Saturday with a Brian Moehler (4-5, 6.95), Billy Buckner (2-2, 5.25) battle on Sunday. Seriously, will Baseball Tonight on ESPN even show highlights from that one?
But the game I'm looking at now is Friday's matchup with Haren on the home mound and Mike Hampton (4-7, 4.65) for the visitors. It's a pitching mismatch by all rights, and the oddsmakers agree by hanging a -185 and higher line on the Diamondbacks. But as always there is more behind the stats and odds.
Since being swept in Cincinnati in late-May, Houston has won nine of 13 and taken four consecutive series. But their 7-3 mark the last 10 comes during the club's second of three 10-game homestands this season. Arizona meanwhile has dropped three of their last four and six of their last nine, and the D-Backs haven't won a series since May 22-24 when they took two of three from the A's in Oakland.
Like Haren, Hampton got off to a tough start this season in the W-L column though it was more to do with his pitching than his offense not supporting him. The little lefthanded slinger was 2-4, with Houston 2-7, through nine starts on May 24 and sporting a 5.63 ERA. He has since won his last two trips to the mound, going seven innings in each assignment while allowing just a run both times. He looks a lot like the Mike Hampton I used to watch pitch regularly at the Astrodome in the late 90s.
Ah, but on closer inspection we see that those two most recent starts have come against the Pirates who are actually worse than the Astros this year. In fact, in his three starts vs. Pittsburgh in 2009, Hampton and the Astros are 3-0 while he's chunked 20 innings and allowed just two runs. In the other eight starts, the Astros are 1-7 while Hampy has sported a 6.42 ERA.
You look at Haren's numbers and you can't help but think he should be better than 4-4, and the team 6-6 in his starts, with a 2.33 ERA and 83-11 K/BB ratio in 85 innings. Chalk it up to simply having his turn come in the rotation on the same days that the D-Backs offense fails to show up at the office.
Arizona has supported Haren with 45 runs all season, less than four per game. But a lot of that impotency in the bats was early on; in his first eight starts this year, the Snakes crossed the plate 18 times – seven of those in one game – while in his last four starts they have scored 27 times. Not coincidentally, the Diamondbacks are 3-1 in those most recent four trips Haren has made to the mound.
Still, here's a trend that has developed in his starts while the offense has been giving Haren more support. Haren's first eight starts this season saw the bullpen give up just five runs in 15.1 IP of work (2.93). Over his last four outings, the same relief corps has allowed 12 runs in 17 innings (6.35). A couple of extra inning contests, including Haren's last start that went saw his pen work 11 innings of the 18-inning marathon win at San Diego, are included in that number.
He had two starts and a relief appearance versus the Astros when he first came up, losing both starts. He made up for some of that more recently with a winning assignment against Houston in Arizona last year in a he pitched well (7.2 IP, 3 ER).
Houston's bullpen has been superb during their little surge here. Guys with names like Chris Sampson, Jeff Fulchino and Alberto Arias have been the keys, total unknowns. Houston added another reliever after the game in lefty Wesley Wright being activated while starter Felipe Paulino hits the DL. The word is that closer Jose Valverde might also be activated for Friday's game, with my guess Alberto Arias that gets sent down whenever that takes place in this series, so keep your eyes on that possible news. Houston is coming off a couple of tough extra inning wins over the Cubs, and bringing up two 'fresh' relievers for this series makes sense with them not needing the starter until next week on the road in interleague play.
On the road is where the Astros will be for a while now as they travel to Phoenix, back to Texas to face the Rangers and then to Minnesota before their next home game. Sitting in last now, they're still just five games out of first and...
Nah! No way. Houston's offense should be simply no match for Haren on Friday night. Arizona's bats are also pathetic, but they have far more home run power than the Astros and more than a quarter-run per game average higher playing a park that has been home run friendly this season. If Hampton can keep the D-Backs hitting groundballs tonight like he's done to the Pirates the last two games, then I'll believe he might be back. But my wallet says D-Backs at the -185 and the Under 8½.