Mr. Crumbs Leans for Thursday 6/10/09

TheLemonDropKid · 06-10-09, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by solobass

anyway it is good to be back on the horse and back in the forum.

Tigers RL +120
Rays -110
Jays +135

lemon you would so dig my spreadsheet action right now.

best of luck today everyone!

It's good to have you back....was wondering where you went.

And you just gave me butterflies with "you would so dig my spreadsheet action right now."

solobass · 06-10-09, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid

It's good to have you back....was wondering where you went.

And you just gave me butterflies with "you would so dig my spreadsheet action right now."

here is an easy gem for you. i have an autobet on a team RL when the pitcher is in the CY predictor (found on espn.com), offense in the top 15 in runs scored and a top 10 defensive efficiency and a .480 or better road record (if that is applicable) and a .400 home record (again, where applicable).

(yukon cornelious voice) wahoo! gooold!

that is how i came up with the tigers play today.

Jimbo42 · 06-10-09, 12:55 PM

Added:

Pittsburgh +185
Pittsburgh -1.5 +300

GL homies!

TheLemonDropKid · 06-10-09, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

Added:

Pittsburgh +185
Pittsburgh -1.5 +300

GL homies!

Get back to work bro!!

Can't believe you're taking the Marlins AGAIN TODAY!! Jerk.....

TheLemonDropKid · 06-10-09, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by solobass

here is an easy gem for you. i have an autobet on a team RL when the pitcher is in the CY predictor (found on espn.com), offense in the top 15 in runs scored and a top 10 defensive efficiency and a .480 or better road record (if that is applicable) and a .400 home record (again, where applicable).

(yukon cornelious voice) wahoo! gooold!

that is how i came up with the tigers play today.

LOL!! Yukon Cornelious.......I love that guy. Now you got me humming Christmas songs in JUNE!!!

Bradyd · 06-10-09, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

Added:

Pittsburgh +185
Pittsburgh -1.5 +300

GL homies!

Thank you, finally someone willing to take them

Panekkkk · 06-10-09, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid

Get back to work bro!!

Can't believe you're taking the Marlins AGAIN TODAY!! Jerk.....

STL will rally behind Wainright tongiht and finally end the streak.

TheLemonDropKid · 06-10-09, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

STL will rally behind Wainright tongiht and finally end the streak.

I would have to agree.....I think he's just taking the Marlins to spite me.

solobass · 06-10-09, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by Bradyd

Thank you, finally someone willing to take them

i am not on this one, but is a very savvy play. atl is due for a slide and pit is due for a slight uptick.

cocknocker · 06-10-09, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by solobass

the thing about the nats is how god awful they really are. i use the pythagorean sabermetric formula as part of my overall capping formula (with custom exponent of course) and that tells the tale of the tape. the nats are REALLY underperforming even compared to how many chunks they should be blowing.

And this gives credence to the fellow who is fading the Nats every game. I think the appropriate way to take the nats mone yis to consistently wager against them for the series price. They won't win three series in a row at any time this year, so it will be a constant money maker. If you need to pay the light bill on Monday morning, bet against the Nats on the series at the beginnin of the week. Lest ye should be alright then!

solobass · 06-10-09, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

And this gives credence to the fellow who is fading the Nats every game. I think the appropriate way to take the nats mone yis to consistently wager against them for the series price. They won't win three series in a row at any time this year, so it will be a constant money maker. If you need to pay the light bill on Monday morning, bet against the Nats on the series at the beginnin of the week. Lest ye should be alright then!

good call brother you are a walking ATM.

therber2 · 06-10-09, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

No JM for me today. I don't like the matchups

Yeah, not playing a B with Wang in. Too erratic. The price should be +200...then maybe I'd touch it. Who knows, he might do it tonight. I like your new write ups CK.

ram1502 · 06-10-09, 02:23 PM

Is Lackey really fade material?

macadams · 06-10-09, 03:35 PM

What about FLA/STL UNDER? STL in a lot of low scoring games it seems, good pitchers, wind blowing in...

macadams · 06-10-09, 03:56 PM

Man, playing BOS is like getting to play two gams at the price of one. Decent chance Wang just gives it away, I mean if the sink's not there forget about it right? Then, if he pitches a good game, you still get the chance of BOS simply winning a tight, close game.

Panekkkk · 06-10-09, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

And this gives credence to the fellow who is fading the Nats every game. I think the appropriate way to take the nats mone yis to consistently wager against them for the series price. They won't win three series in a row at any time this year, so it will be a constant money maker. If you need to pay the light bill on Monday morning, bet against the Nats on the series at the beginnin of the week. Lest ye should be alright then!

I could have told ya that without sabermetrics. There's no way they can continue to be so bad. They do have some decent hitters ;P. But they are also under the Adam Dunn curse. I swear, team .avg's drop when he is on the team.

I just wish Pinnacle had series prices. Might have to open another book just for the series Nats fade =).

Nats also have yet to win game 1 of a road series.

jellobiafra · 06-10-09, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by macadams

What about FLA/STL UNDER? STL in a lot of low scoring games it seems, good pitchers, wind blowing in...

This was initially my play for today but I didn't like the trends. Something told me to stay away, but it might still be a solid play.

Good luck.

macadams · 06-10-09, 05:22 PM

Booked:

1 unit DET @ 1.76
1 unit SEA @1.95

_____________________________________ _

June record: - 1.05

macadams · 06-10-09, 05:26 PM

Jello, 8.5 o/u for the HOU Cubs game, low total for that ballpark with Wandy struggling a bit as of late if there is any residual heat on the cubbie bats, no?

Panekkkk · 06-10-09, 05:31 PM

....

showtime2000 · 06-10-09, 05:33 PM

MLB play,

Cin/Was over 9
Harang's #'s,
-ERA over 7 last 3 games
-ERA over 5 away games
-ERA over 5 night games

Martis #'s,
-ERA over 7 last 3 games
-ERA over 6 night games
-ERA over 3 at home

GLA

jellobiafra · 06-10-09, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by macadams

Jello, 8.5 o/u for the HOU Cubs game, low total for that ballpark with Wandy struggling a bit as of late if there is any residual heat on the cubbie bats, no?

This is a tough total, imo. You expect near greatness from Wandy at home, but he didn't give it last time out. His last two overall he's given up 12 ER in less than 10 IP. You expect greatness from Z almost every time he takes the hill, but he's shown a tendency to blow up at the drop of a hat.

Basically, there's too many unknowns in this one for me to offer an opinion. When I cap totals I'm looking exclusively for unders and basically trying to find reasons to exclude a game as a potential play. This one was automatically dismissed b/c of Wandy's last 2. But then again he's a good pitcher and he could pitch a gem. This goes to my philosophy of not playing overs. These guys should all be able to pitch a good game on any given night. That's why they're up here. In this one you've got two #1 to #2 caliber guys facing each other. Despite Wandy's last two outings, it's just as likely you'll see a 4-2 game here as you might see a 7-4, imo.

Dexter · 06-10-09, 05:57 PM

no time for write ups:

phillies -130 (3x)
over brewers 8.5 (2x)
indians -140 (3x)
over redsox 11 (Autobet - 5x)
tigers -130

Dexter · 06-10-09, 06:50 PM

The results from round 1 are in, and play begins again tomorrow with everyone back at the 60 unit starting bankroll. I guess theres something to the contest creator getting knocked out in the first round (see sam) but its cool - i'll be back to break that hex with a sweet ass structured NFL season long contest

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapping-contests/178746-sbr-16-man-4-month-tournament-p2.html#post1927695

The only thing I will change for next years baseball contest is reseeding after each round factoring in your net units, and make the daily limit be 20% instead of 15%

Good Luck all and pm me or suicidekings with any questions.

RoagBettor · 06-10-09, 07:05 PM

Pavano doesn't have it tonight for the Tribe.

jellobiafra · 06-10-09, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Pavano doesn't have it tonight for the Tribe.

He did early, but then he started leaving the ball over the plate.

Good thing for the under that Meche is on fire. Looking dismal right now, but Meche is really rolling so who knows....

jellobiafra · 06-10-09, 07:31 PM

Jeezus. Pavano gives up a granny in the 5th. 9-0 KC in the 5th.

Dexter · 06-10-09, 07:38 PM

Thur 6/11

Game 4: Lakers +3 (5x)

_____________

under drays (5x) - david price has been as good as advertised, and should be a difficult read for the angels having never seen his magical left arm. i watched ervin santana's last start, and he is completely back to his old form. a ton of value on this total at 9 right now.

rockies (RL) (Autobet) - play the dog +1.5 with a total at 7.5 or < etc etc

dbacks (ML) (2x) - sanchez has a 6.43/1.86 in his last 3 and a 6.88/1.80 career vs arz

under tigers (2x) - jackson has a 1.16/.68 in his last 3, and floyd has a 2.49/1.02

yankees (ML) (3x) - have to back cc to avoid the sweep in bos vs penny

phillies (ML) (Autobet - 4x) - moyer has a whip of 1.00 or < in his last 3, and redding has a whip of 1.80 or >

Dexter · 06-10-09, 07:39 PM

carl pavano is who we thought he was...shame on me for re-thinking that year on the marlins. he fooled me but good.

cocknocker · 06-10-09, 07:51 PM

Cole Hamels is getting shelled tonight. He definitely doesn't have his best stuff tonight

jgbgsox · 06-10-09, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Cole Hamels is getting shelled tonight. He definitely doesn't have his best stuff tonight

he must still be hurting in 10 starts this year he has an era of 4.40 no way a healthy hamels puts up numbers like that

cocknocker · 06-10-09, 08:04 PM

We've got some early ones tomorrow, fellers. So far in the early games I like the Red Birds and Rockies. Gallardo is good, but let's face it, he's going up against some hot bats with the Rockies. As far as the Red Birds are concerned, they are going to bust out the whoopin' sticks tomorrow against Miller who's a below average pitcher.

Dexter · 06-10-09, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Cole Hamels is getting shelled tonight. He definitely doesn't have his best stuff tonight

phillies are fightin

sportsguy04 · 06-10-09, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

Reds ML
Phillies ML
Cubs ML

Parlayed
Reds ML
Phillies ML
Cardinals ML
Cubs ML
Red Sox RL

HOLY SHIT!!! This is looking decent so far. My bankroll could just of gone from 10 units to like 40 units! This Parlay would be huge! Phillies just tied game up!

EDIT: Red Sox only up 1 run now

Dexter · 06-10-09, 08:30 PM

back to back homers for the yanks! one more run please