Mr. Crumbs Leans for Thursday 6/10/09

[cocknocker]

I am busy still crunching the numbers, and probably won't have the full report until tomorrow morning. Took some close tough losses yesterday, so I have to tighten up my game a little bit.

It's too early to tell yet, but I have a yen for the road teams to even up the series, and one home dog.


Rays-108
Phillies-124
Mariners-108
Cardinals-108 HEAVY
Twins+110 HEAVY Added Play



Breakdown coming later on!

[CP Thrizzle]

I wish today was actually Thursday, lol!

[cnleaf]

Wednesday, CK.

[cocknocker]

Well whatever...

[cocknocker]

No JM for me today. I don't like the matchups

[texhooper]

i wish i didn't know what day it was either. for real. that would mean i wasn't counting the days until i didn't have to go to work again.

[darthfader]

cardinals break their tough streak tomorrow. nice call.

[suicidekings]

I'm liking the BOS RL -1.5 (+150) tomorrow. Wakefield has been solid at home, while Wang has been anything but... Also comtemplating Wandy and the Astros, HOU ML (+102), but I don't really understand the line movement that's happening right now in that one... Wandy at home with only 6% of the public on him and moving from -108 -> +102... How is he getting so little respect?

[jellobiafra]

KC/CLE under 9


It was 9 last night but I don't know how long it will stay there. Pavano is pitching as well as anyone right now and Meche does really well as a dog and on the road.

Good luck!

[Jimbo42]

What up!

Booked:
Florida -112

GL

[RoagBettor]

My plays for today:

Reds
Cubs
Giants
Indians
Yankees
Jays
Twins

[pho3nix32]

No JM for me today. I don't like the matchups

the JM play yesterday bombed

[jellobiafra]

You guys are gonna go broke on that JM bullsh*t for baseball. Good luck with Wang tonight.

[Joe Sharp]

JM play on Lakers didn't though... I hit that one hard. OK... back to baseball!


Minny / Oakland OVER 8 for me

[rawkstarr]

St.Louis and Philadelphia today HEAVY for this cat!

[jellobiafra]

Nothing but respect for JM's basketball system. I think the baseball one is a joke though and if you didn't learn how easliy it can lose by having the first series this year with your team losing the [C] game by 2 with 2 outs in the 8th.... well then you are not going to learn anything until the day you lose that huge [C] bet on top of the [A] and [B] that preceded it. And I think you've got a real good shot at learning that lesson the hard way this week with the Yankees.

Like I said, good luck with Wang tonight on a [B] bet. Yeesh.

[cocknocker]

You guys are gonna go broke on that JM bullsh*t for baseball. Good luck with Wang tonight.

I have the appropriate filters in place. I don't play all of them as most of the readers know. I actually have faded them a few times this season too. But I do play most of them. The matchups tonight however, don't look too good. Matter of fact, they are fade material this evening, lol!

[pho3nix32]

You guys are gonna go broke on that JM bullsh*t for baseball. Good luck with Wang tonight.

LOL jello...CK's heavy are much accurate

[ploben]

I'm liking the BOS RL -1.5 (+150) tomorrow. Wakefield has been solid at home, while Wang has been anything but...

Love this play...and not because I have been a Sox fan all my life . RLM on the NYY line. Public is pounding the Yanks and the line is moving backwards. BOS's offense is kicking, bullpen is the strongest I have seen it in a looooooong time, and Papi jacked one last night so all signs point to value with the RL.

[suicidekings]

I'm liking the BOS RL -1.5 (+150) tomorrow. Wakefield has been solid at home, while Wang has been anything but... Also comtemplating Wandy and the Astros, HOU ML (+102), but I don't really understand the line movement that's happening right now in that one... Wandy at home with only 6% of the public on him and moving from -108 -> +102... How is he getting so little respect?

Up to +160. Damn.. Should have waited...

[Panekkkk]

Also on the Cards and Cubbies tonight. Both starting pitchers fare well on the road and the Cards are breaking their streak tonight.

Cubs writeup:

Cubbies rattled off 15+ hits tonight while Lilly held the Stros to just 4. Zambrano let up 1 ER in his last 2 starts. Rodriguez on the other hand has let up 12 ER in his last 2 starts and is due for a major correction to his 2.97 ERA. Zambrona's splits are looking very nice: he's holding righties to just a .212 BA (Houston mostly righties cept for Berkman). Zambrano's last start in Houston only 1 ER with the Cubbies pulling it out 4-2 earlier this season.

Add to that: Cubs are 6-0 in Zambranos last 6 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

Look for the Cubbies to stay hot!!!

GL all!

Also leaning on the TB/LAA Under 9

[jellobiafra]

KC/CLE under 9


It was 9 last night but I don't know how long it will stay there. Pavano is pitching as well as anyone right now and Meche does really well as a dog and on the road.

Good luck!

This one is dropping like a rock. I got it on BetJam last night at -120. It's now 8.5 -120. I still like it at 8.5, but not as much as 9!

[cocknocker]

WHIP

Philly 1.27
Mets 1.50

Advantage Phillies (Duh!)

Power ranking

Philly-139

Line

Philly-122
Mets+114

Advantage Philly as the line has risen to -140 on some books to support the 79% of bettors on their side

Slugging% last 3 games

Philly .454
Mets .443

Advantage Phillies

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

Phillies 1.240
Mets 1.250

Advantage Phillies

My pick: Phillies -130

**************************************** ***************************************

WHIP

LAA 1.41
Rays 1.37

Advantage Rays

Power ranking

Tampa Bay-127

Line

Angels-110
Rays +102

Advantage Rays as there is a false favorite in ths game. Line is now -110 both ways with 61% on the Rays

Slugging% last 3 games

LAA .437
Rays .277

Advantage Angels, but I factored in the Rays facing Yankees best pitching in the previous three games.

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

LAA 1.500
Rays 1.290

Advantage Rays

My pick: Rays -110 The Angels are not a good dome team to begin with and they won the first game as a dog.

**************************************** ****************************************

WHIP

SEA 1.28
BAL 1.49

Advantage Seattle

Power rankings

SEA-110

Line

SEA+100
BAL-108

Advantage Seattle as there is a false favorite. The line is now Seattle -108, Baltimore -112 defying the public number. But Seattle will have the advantage with the public in ANY game that these teams play. Just have to go with te capping on this one.

Slugging% last 3 games

SEA .424
BAL .327

Advantage Seattle

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

SEA 1.209
BAL 0.692

Advantage Baltimore, skewed somewhat by Felix doing his usual 7 innings.

My pick: Seattle -108

**************************************** **************************************

WHIP

STL 1.28
FLO 1.16

Advantage Florida

Power ranking

STL -104

Line

STL+102
FLO-110

Advantage Cardinals as the line is now Cardinals -108, Florida-112, and the Cards moved up 4 cents on the dollar. Plus according to power numbers there is a false favorite in this game.

Slugging % last 3 games

STL .273
FLO .374

Advantage Florida

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

STL 1.471
FLO 0.800

Advantage Florida

My pick: St. Louis. Strong indicators last night that they are ready to bust out of their slump as they collected 9 hits. Plus Pujols went hitless. It'll never happen two games in a row. I honestly see the Cardinals ending ther 5 game losing streak. Once that they do I will play them again the following day just as I am going to do with Minnesota today as well.

**************************************** ************************************

WHIP

MIN 1.58
OAK 1.35

Advantage Oakland

Power ranking

Oakland-111

Line

MIN +116
OAK -124

Advantage Oakland as the line has gone up to -135 with 55% of the public on them

Slugging% last three games

MIN .374
OAK .207

Advantage Minnesota

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

MIN 1.341
OAK 1.500

Advantage Minnesota

My pick: Minnesota+115 The Twins are primed to win another game in a row. Liriano showed some promise shutting down the Mariners to two runs and 3 hits in 6 innings. His walks to strikeouts ratio was still bad at 5 strikeouts and 4 walks but he is improving by listening to Mauer.

[solobass]

yar and stuff,

now back to your scheduled programming......

[cap10]

suikings

wandy has been in a 3 game freefall ;; how can he turn it around today vs big Z;;

cubs ml has to be the play;; and let the chips fall where they may;

gl

[TheLemonDropKid]

whats up everyone, i hope all is well. i will only have this post up for a short time. i am near the conclusion of an IRS audit (it has been killing me for a few weeks here) and i would like to share a few tips to keep you all on the up and up.

1. if you are a serious gambler and do it as a profession, or put more than 10K a month in play, (and this has saved my A$$) PUT A GOOD LAWYER ON RETAINER. if you are like me and your income goes up drastically from one year to the next you are raising the flags all over. prepare for it and spend the coin on a lawyer with a background in tax law and who works with/or is a CPA.
2. they could care less about how you made the money and are not interested in prosecuting for gambling. they are just blood sucking leaches who will go through all of your plays, deposits, withdrawals, banking records etc etc and make you pay. my mistake was only declaring income that i transferred into the USA and not the rest.
3. trust in your legal team, they are there for you. do not sweat the details, just keep making your plays and do not let it slow your roll. you will need to bounce back once you get the final bill.
4. keep your head in shape and mind in the game. when it comes time to cap, DO NOT OVERREACH because of the pending IRS slapdown.

now back to your scheduled programming......

Hey Solo, thanks for the info.......but im a little confused. How would the IRS know about income received from gambling?

[melincrea]

Wow.. Wakefield at -115, how can I give that up?

Boston
Toronto
Milwaukee

All for 2 units, all MLs

[sportsguy04]

Reds ML
Phillies ML
Cubs ML


Parlayed
Reds ML
Phillies ML
Cardinals ML
Cubs ML
Red Sox RL

[thegenix]

Hey Solo, thanks for the info.......but im a little confused. How would the IRS know about income received from gambling?

Seems like they would know if you were spending a lot of money all of a sudden. You just have to be smart about how you use your money that you win from gambling and you should be fine.

[solobass]

i declared some as income. all of the money made in vegas i declared and then some. honestly there is no "smart" way to be with the money, there is no way i could just sit on it because it is my profession. it pays the bills, puts the food on the table, keeps the cars running etc.

[solobass]

Reds ML
Phillies ML
Cubs ML


Parlayed
Reds ML
Phillies ML
Cardinals ML
Cubs ML
Red Sox RL

typically i back Harang @ home not on the road his numbers are much better in the friendly confines. best of luck and i hope you cash that parlay!

[TheLemonDropKid]

i declared some as income. all of the money made in vegas i declared and then some. honestly there is no "smart" way to be with the money, there is no way i could just sit on it because it is my profession. it pays the bills, puts the food on the table, keeps the cars running etc.

Ahhh....okay....I understand.

[sportsguy04]

typically i back Harang @ home not on the road his numbers are much better in the friendly confines. best of luck and i hope you cash that parlay!

Thanks solobass! I agree but after all I cant resist betting against the Nats.

[solobass]

anyway it is good to be back on the horse and back in the forum.

Tigers RL +120
Rays -110
Jays +135

lemon you would so dig my spreadsheet action right now.

best of luck today everyone!

[solobass]

Thanks solobass! I agree but after all I cant resist betting against the Nats.

the thing about the nats is how god awful they really are. i use the pythagorean sabermetric formula as part of my overall capping formula (with custom exponent of course) and that tells the tale of the tape. the nats are REALLY underperforming even compared to how many chunks they should be blowing.