Mr. Crumbs Leans for Friday 6/5/09

conmanx420 · 06-05-09, 03:59 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

For today's action I like four games which I will expand upon tomorrow:

Red Birds-1.5+125
Snakes/Padres under 7.5 -110
Royals/Blue Birds under 7.5 -105
Seattle-1.5 +145

I agree with STL and Royals Under picks.

I'm also leaning toward the UNDER for Min/Sea and Mil/Atl games. What are your thoughts?

Jimbo42 · 06-05-09, 06:22 AM

Thanks for opening the thread today Mr. Crumb....
Let's do this....

Booked:
Oakland A's -120
Oakland A's -1.5 +180

Boston Red Sox -140
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +145

San Diego Padres -120
San Diego Padres -1.5 +180

GL Ya'll!

theplagy · 06-05-09, 06:27 AM

I like toronto today

KC cant give grienke any run support

ploben · 06-05-09, 06:55 AM

Hey CK...just wondering how the 1st inning run thing is going?

Panekkkk · 06-05-09, 08:42 AM

Anyone like the CWS/CLE under? Danks should hold off CLE and CWS are the lowest hitting team in baseball

cocknocker · 06-05-09, 08:55 AM

ploben, it's going along fine.

conmanx420

I don't like the Minny/Seattle under, as both teams have slugging % over .450. Milwaukee/Atlanta could go either way. Jurrjy has a poor ground outs to fly outs ratio, and the Brewers usually are a big air team. Plus he is a low strikeout pitcher. The only reason why I didn't take the Brewers in that game is because they are hitting a little worse than the Braves. Gallardo is the real thing

The Red Birds are hitting at a lower slugging % than Colorado now with the updates to the hitting stats, so it now becomes a NO PLAY for me.

Seattle also has bad movement on it overnight, which is not leasing. But since I haven't made my plays on those yet, I can still work with other plays that have presented themselves as pure plays for what I look for in a game. I must have the bats and WHIP on my side in order to take a play. Those games lost check marks in key areas overnight, so once the morning came I liked these sides

Florida-1.5 +135 The line and value is good for runline. Giants swept a double header too with travel

Texas+120 Great value here for a better pitcher as a dog. Bats & WHIP are on the Rangers side too

cocknocker · 06-05-09, 09:01 AM

The only other game that fit my criteria today is the Pirates, but there is bad movement on it and Karstens sucks on the road. However, they are tearing the lid off of the baseball. So I decided toleave this game alone. But as far as being a sound wager, they are looking pretty good

Panekkkk · 06-05-09, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

ploben, it's going along fine.

conmanx420

I don't like the Minny/Seattle under, as both teams have slugging % over .450. Milwaukee/Atlanta could go either way. Jurrjy has a poor ground outs to fly outs ratio, and the Brewers usually are a big air team. Plus he is a low strikeout pitcher. The only reason why I didn't take the Brewers in that game is because they are hitting a little worse than the Braves. Gallardo is the real thing

The Red Birds are hitting at a lower slugging % than Colorado now with the updates to the hitting stats, so it now becomes a NO PLAY for me.

Seattle also has bad movement on it overnight, which is not leasing. But since I haven't made my plays on those yet, I can still work with other plays that have presented themselves as pure plays for what I look for in a game. I must have the bats and WHIP on my side in order to take a play. Those games lost check marks in key areas overnight, so once the morning came I liked these sides

Florida-1.5 +135 The line and value is good for runline. Giants swept a double header too with travel

Texas+120 Great value here for a better pitcher as a dog. Bats & WHIP are on the Rangers side too

Gonna get on Florida heavy. Volstad has a 1.13 WHIP at home. His home losses have all come against big hitting teams. With SF on a double-header win last night they are due up for a loss. SF is 1-5 in Zito's last 5 starts on the road as a dog.

ploben · 06-05-09, 09:15 AM

Good to hear. You have an overall record so far?

cocknocker · 06-05-09, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by ploben

Good to hear. You have an overall record so far?

264-210. PM me from now on with questions about this thing. The first rule about the thing is that it doesn't exist. The second rule is that it is not to be discussed in open.

Panekkkk · 06-05-09, 09:27 AM

CK where you getting your slugging % last 3 days numbers? (Thanx in advance

)

cocknocker · 06-05-09, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

CK where you getting your slugging % last 3 days numbers? (Thanx in advance

)

I use Cleanup hitter.com. They are slow about updating the numbers and it usually doesn't occur until the next day which sucks, but at least they stay current. Sometimes I have to change a play because they haven't updated their figures in a timely enough fashion. I get my power ranking numbers from the Spread.com,and I trace the line movement on Sportsinsights as well as Vegas Insider.com. I get my research for players at CBS.Sports.com, and lat but not least, I get my pitcher information with regard to how they perform against the assigned number and opposing team at winningedge.com

I am a little thorough when it comes to researching a game, but I am sure that the readers and so on appreciate that fact. And just think. If there are 16 games, I do this for ALL 16 games until I find what i am looking for

jellobiafra · 06-05-09, 09:52 AM

Alright boys, I got....

TEX/BOS under 10

I don't love it, but I like it. I'm also leaning under MIL/ATL under 8. Might add it later. And for sides today I'll back CLE +115

My afternoon delight is UVA -150 (ESPN2 at 2pm EST). Was really surprised by this number when I saw it. I guess they aren't a secret anymore. 7-0 postseason and their starter today is LH ACC freshman of the year. 9-1 with a 2.01 ERA if ya need him.

cocknocker · 06-05-09, 09:56 AM

I am surprised that no one likes the Rays today. They have the hottest bullpen in the majors over their last 3 gams as well as the best slugging% in the majors. Sabathia is horrid against the tall number. The Yanks are overvalued by almost 60 cents on the dollar. I show a power ranking of -139 for the Yanks and the line is now -200. With recent bullpen numbers like the Rays have, if they get ahead in this game around the 7th inning or so, there will be alot of disappointed people who laid that heavy chalk....

The Rays are simply NOT a +200 team even if a corpse were pitching for them

Panekkkk · 06-05-09, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I am surprised that no one likes the Rays today. They have the hottest bullpen in the majors over their last 3 gams as well as the best slugging% in the majors. Sabathia is horrid against the tall number. The Yanks are overvalued by almost 60 cents on the dollar. I show a power ranking of -139 for the Yanks and the line is now -200. With recent bullpen numbers like the Rays have, if they get ahead in this game around the 7th inning or so, there will be alot of disappointed people who laid that heavy chalk....

The Rays are simply NOT a +200 team even if a corpse were pitching for them

I think there are some scars left over from the Texas series. Yankees bats are just too hot right now.

Panekkkk · 06-05-09, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I use Cleanup hitter.com. They are slow about updating the numbers and it usually doesn't occur until the next day which sucks, but at least they stay current. Sometimes I have to change a play because they haven't updated their figures in a timely enough fashion. I get my power ranking numbers from the Spread.com,and I trace the line movement on Sportsinsights as well as Vegas Insider.com. I get my research for players at CBS.Sports.com, and lat but not least, I get my pitcher information with regard to how they perform against the assigned number and opposing team at winningedge.com

I am a little thorough when it comes to researching a game, but I am sure that the readers and so on appreciate that fact. And just think. If there are 16 games, I do this for ALL 16 games until I find what i am looking for

Thanks CK, really appreciate it. Laid down on Marlins heavy, only thing that worries me is 12.1 IP for Marlins bullpen last 3 games. SF only 4, but they have a whip of over 3 in those 3 games... ouch!

Panekkkk · 06-05-09, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Alright boys, I got....

TEX/BOS under 10

I don't love it, but I like it. I'm also leaning under MIL/ATL under 8. Might add it later. And for sides today I'll back CLE +115

My afternoon delight is UVA -150 (ESPN2 at 2pm EST). Was really surprised by this number when I saw it. I guess they aren't a secret anymore. 7-0 postseason and their starter today is LH ACC freshman of the year. 9-1 with a 2.01 ERA if ya need him.

Pinny doesn't have the UVA game... AGAIN! Listed as "Offline". They know too much

cocknocker · 06-05-09, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Thanks CK, really appreciate it. Laid down on Marlins heavy, only thing that worries me is 12.1 IP for Marlins bullpen last 3 games. SF only 4, but they have a whip of over 3 in those 3 games... ouch!

Yeah the Giants have an awful bullpen to be sure, but so does Florida. It all comes down to which team is traveling and which team played a doubleheader the previous day. Zito allows a ton of baserunners and does not get a majority of ground ball outs as anyone knows. He is not a strikeout pitcher either and gives up more than half as many walks (26) as strikeouts (43) on the year. Compare that to Volstad with 54 strikeouts and 21 walks.

Volstad is going against a tired team. The Giants are on the road once again... fresh off a sweep of a double header of the Nappies. Meanwhile the Marlins are at home and playing well having taken three out of four against the Brewers. The fact is that the Marlins are a superior team over the Giants based on talent alone. The Giants just have Cain and Lincecum. This series has the look af a split to it...

The only thing saving this play from being heavy is that this game is being played in the same time zone as the day before. Hopefully the Marlins can get out to a quick start and jump all over the Giants and get so far ahead that the bullpen won't be a factor anymore.

Zito is 1-6 for a reason. He can't get the big out because he doesn't have the steam. It's that simple.

POTVINSUX · 06-05-09, 12:43 PM

Have to go with TB/NYY U9(-115). The reason being C.C. will be taking the mound tonight against Price. Two solid pitches, from what Iv'e seen from Price his stuff reminds me of C.C's a bit. Longoria is expected not to play until Sat. So all likely will be out of the card. Only thing that worries me is that the gm is being played in the bronx and we all know how the new stadium fares with the long ball, these pitchers do not walk many batters per start so well have to see,take our chances with the occasional dinger.

Also like the fish here nocker. Your right..plain and simple...
Volstad going up against Zito who hasn't shown any sign of life in years. Especially with the Giants comin off back to back wins definatley look for a let down traveling to Miami. Expect Zito to walk plenty of batters in this one, hanging breaking ball after another.
Marlins(-154) Marlins-1.5(+138)

djpremier36 · 06-05-09, 12:51 PM

Let's get it crackin. Good Luck!

SIDES

CHC -121...Big Z owns CIN

PHI +118...good line movement, crushing lefties

TOTALS

NYM/WAS over 10 -107

CHC/CIN under 9.5 -126

MIL/ATL over 7.5 -106

TEX/BOS under 10 -102

ram1502 · 06-05-09, 01:40 PM

Really starting to like the Indians and Pavano today. Pavano has 0.98 WHIP with 3.1 ERA in his last 3 games, while Danks sports a 1.71/4.76. Pavano only gave up 3 ER in his last start to the Yankees in 7 1/3 Innings. He is starting to round back into form while Danks has been shaky, kinda hit or miss, all year and has thrown at least 100 pitches in his last 3 starts. The Indians are out-slugging the White Sox, they hit lefties better than righties (average 6 rpg vs lefties), and the Sox do poorly against righties (average 4 rpg vs righties).

-----> Indians ML +120

-----> Indians RRL +190

The_Kid · 06-05-09, 02:53 PM

Two game parlay:

Cleveland Indians +115
Tampa Bay Rays +175

1 unit to win ~ 5 units

peterpan19 · 06-05-09, 03:16 PM

anyone who is playing the Dbacks game tonight...remember Davis is 0-5 with a plus 5 ERA in night games this year...but he always pitched great against SD...

ebbearsfb1 · 06-05-09, 03:42 PM

ck just wondering why it matters about posting records... no big deal if you just wanna pm me.. great work either way

bravoday · 06-05-09, 03:43 PM

met/was game

who do u guys like in this game?

macadams · 06-05-09, 03:59 PM

Baltimore 1u @ 2.10

SanFran 1u @ 2.51

Chisox 1u @ 1.8

-----------------------------------------------------------

June: - 0.89 units (7-7)

mcbaseball10 · 06-05-09, 05:07 PM

Raining like an SOB here just 15 minutes from Landshark stadium. Don't see it letting up anytime soon. May not have a game for Marlins tonight.

Dexter · 06-05-09, 05:27 PM

Fri 6/5-

over mets - redding has a 9.20/1.90 in his last 3 and martis has a 9.56/1.56.

cards (RL - 3x) - delarosa has a 13.50/2.33 in his last 3 (6.27/1.82 career vs sl) and wainwright has a 2.38/1.10 (.69/1.15 career vs col)

tigers (RL - 2x) - santana is still not right (see above post) and sports an 11.08/2.30 in his last 3. verlander has a 1.89/1.05 in his last 3

yankees (RL) - price has to deal with yankee stadium on a friday night in just his 3rd start of the year. no longoria for tb, and sabbathia has been in a groove (2.86/.95 last 3 and 2.44/1.03 career vs tb).

mariners (RL) - something is not right with liriano. 12.00/2.58 in his last 3, and hasnt gone past the 4th inn in any of those games. both pitchers have faced each other twice this year. its hernandez's turn to win now back at home (2.98/1.07 career vs the twins)

Dexter · 06-05-09, 05:28 PM

cocknocker - got your message. you saw my post yesterday regarding santana. he even admits hes not right yet. we both know the form verlander is in right now. i have to keep riding him.

jellobiafra · 06-05-09, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

UVA -150

Classic choke job by my hoos. I don't know why I ever get my hopes up for any of their teams. They break my heart year after year. It's been happening since 1981, when they had the most dominant player in the history of college basketball (and another All-American at gaurd), the consensus #1 team for the majority of 4 consecutive years, and could not win not only an NCAA championship but even an ACC championship.

Don't even get me started on the 1991 football team with Shawn and Herman Moore that started 7-0 and #1 in the nation, only to lose 4 out of 5 down the stretch.

UVA has a long, sordid history of choking in the big game. This debacle today will be just of footnote on that long list. Sorry Panekkkk and anybody else that might have tailed me here. I should have known better than to ever put money on such a cursed athletic program.

Dexter · 06-05-09, 05:31 PM

fyi - raining all day in ny

mcbaseball10 · 06-05-09, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by mcbaseball10

Raining like an SOB here just 15 minutes from Landshark stadium. Don't see it letting up anytime soon. May not have a game for Marlins tonight.

Forgot I am in South Florida where the rain can move out in no time..They should be ok to play tonight.

showtime2000 · 06-05-09, 05:39 PM

MLB plays for me,

LAA/DET over (Santana is 5-2 w/a 4.06 ERA in seven career starts against the Tigers and is 2-2 w/a 7.17 ERA pitching in Comerica Park and Verlander is 0-2 w/a 6.08 ERA in four career starts against the Angels)

KC/TOR under (CK)
Florida (CK)

GLA

Pick'nParlays · 06-05-09, 06:29 PM

gl ck. Personally i like Zito.