Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 06/03/09 (Write Up)
New York Mets -105 to outpitch Pittsburgh Pirates
With the consistant Mike Pelfrey taking the mound for the New York Mets, the Pittsburgh Pirates will have trouble mounting any offense. Four other games round of the card for Wednesday.
Pick 1: New York Mets -105 over Pittsburgh Pirates
Let’s make no mistake about it; this battered and bruised Mets lineup is bad. Really bad.
But Ross Ohlendorf is no Zack Duke. In Ohlendorf’s 10 starts this season, he has only given up less then three runs three times; and has given up three or more in six of his last seven. More interestingly, he has given up at least one homerun in seven straight starts. Through May he has only gone more than six innings once, meaning the Mets should get to the Pirates susceptible bullpen before it gets too late in the game.
Mike Pelfrey meanwhile has been extremely consistent since returning from elbow tendonitis in late April. He also appears to be getting stronger as he goes. He has given up two runs or less in five of his last seven starts, including four straight starts. With the way Pelfrey has been pitching against a relatively punch-less Pittsburgh team, I expect him to go deep into this game and keep the runs down. The under is also worth considering, but I could see the Mets breaking out of their offensive slump today, beat-up offense or not.
Pick 2: Philadelphia Phillies -103 over San Diego Padres
It is no secret that Chris Young pitches well at Petco. But I also think J.A. Happ is capable of doing the same.
Happ has been a pretty solid prospect, and after being strong in relief he has finally received his shot in the starting rotation with Chan Ho Park’s struggles and Brett Myers’ injury. He has turned in two respectable outings against two tough offenses in the Yankees and the Nationals. 6 innings, four hits, no walks, and only two earned runs in Yankee stadium against that lineup in your first start of the season? You are going to catch my attention.
Considering that Happ’s two starts have both been solid in hitter friendly ballparks against tough hitting teams, a nice pitchers’ ballpark against an average offense should bode very well for him. Philadelphia’s offense is too strong to be contained completely, and I believe they will scrape together enough offensive support for Happ to pick up the win.
Pick 3: Cincinnati Reds +115 over St. Louis Cardinals
Johnny Cueto has not been as strong over his last four starts as he was in the four prior. That said, even "bad" Cueto has been decent, going seven innings in all four of those and giving up three runs or less in three of them. Last time out against St. Louis on May 8th he pitched seven innings of one run baseball.
But the real focus tonight is on Kyle Lohse. After a strong April, Lohse crashed back to reality in May, getting tagged for six runs, seven runs, and four runs in his first three starts of the month before his last outing against Kansas City, which was a strong scoreless eight innings. After that start on May 23, Lohse hasn’t pitched in 11 days due to stiffness in his right forearm. Not good for a right-handed pitcher.
Factoring in potential rust and potential injury, as well as Cincinnati sending one of their best to the mound, it is a wonder that you can get the Reds at +anything today.
Pick 4: Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins Under 8 (+100)
With a shoulder injury, Asdrubal Cabrera joins Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner in the injured-bats-Cleveland-desperately-needs club. Four of Cleveland’s last six games have produced three runs or less on offense, and losing their productive. Rookie Anthony Swarzak has turned in two strong efforts to start off his career, and if he can handle Milwaukee and Boston, I’m sure he can handle a beat up Cleveland.
Cliff Lee takes the mound for the Indians, and he speaks for himself. While getting no run support all season, Lee has been incredible, giving up three runs or less in nine straight starts. Don’t see either starter giving up more than three runs, and one of them will probably do even better than that. Should be a good old fashioned pitcher’s duel in Minnesota.
Pick 5: Oakland A’s @ Chicago White Sox Under 8.5 (-105)
Clayton Richard was pitching well in relief, but got the call to be a starter and has done so very well. In his first start of the season he was shaky, giving up four runs in less then four innings to Cleveland. But since then he has settled into the roll nicely, putting together three straight strong starts. Granted, they weren’t against the best offenses; a slumping Toronto, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City; but isn’t Oakland in that category, too?
Outman continues to be one of the best kept secrets in baseball, somehow quietly compiling a 3.06 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over eight starts and two relief appearances. Pull up his game log this season and look for an outing he’s given up more than three earned runs in. You will be looking for a while; it hasn’t happened.
Chicago ranks 24th in total offense. Oakland ranks 26th. With two good young pitchers on the mound, I’ll take the under.
Good Luck!
FULL DISCLOSURE: I am negative units on the season, as you can see in my signature and on my spreadsheet. While I do work really hard to cap these games and hope to finish the season in the green, don't want anyone tailing me thinking I'm better than I actually am. Hopefully if you choose to tail me its because you agree with my write-ups
.
With the consistant Mike Pelfrey taking the mound for the New York Mets, the Pittsburgh Pirates will have trouble mounting any offense. Four other games round of the card for Wednesday.
Pick 1: New York Mets -105 over Pittsburgh Pirates
Let’s make no mistake about it; this battered and bruised Mets lineup is bad. Really bad.
But Ross Ohlendorf is no Zack Duke. In Ohlendorf’s 10 starts this season, he has only given up less then three runs three times; and has given up three or more in six of his last seven. More interestingly, he has given up at least one homerun in seven straight starts. Through May he has only gone more than six innings once, meaning the Mets should get to the Pirates susceptible bullpen before it gets too late in the game.
Mike Pelfrey meanwhile has been extremely consistent since returning from elbow tendonitis in late April. He also appears to be getting stronger as he goes. He has given up two runs or less in five of his last seven starts, including four straight starts. With the way Pelfrey has been pitching against a relatively punch-less Pittsburgh team, I expect him to go deep into this game and keep the runs down. The under is also worth considering, but I could see the Mets breaking out of their offensive slump today, beat-up offense or not.
Pick 2: Philadelphia Phillies -103 over San Diego Padres
It is no secret that Chris Young pitches well at Petco. But I also think J.A. Happ is capable of doing the same.
Happ has been a pretty solid prospect, and after being strong in relief he has finally received his shot in the starting rotation with Chan Ho Park’s struggles and Brett Myers’ injury. He has turned in two respectable outings against two tough offenses in the Yankees and the Nationals. 6 innings, four hits, no walks, and only two earned runs in Yankee stadium against that lineup in your first start of the season? You are going to catch my attention.
Considering that Happ’s two starts have both been solid in hitter friendly ballparks against tough hitting teams, a nice pitchers’ ballpark against an average offense should bode very well for him. Philadelphia’s offense is too strong to be contained completely, and I believe they will scrape together enough offensive support for Happ to pick up the win.
Pick 3: Cincinnati Reds +115 over St. Louis Cardinals
Johnny Cueto has not been as strong over his last four starts as he was in the four prior. That said, even "bad" Cueto has been decent, going seven innings in all four of those and giving up three runs or less in three of them. Last time out against St. Louis on May 8th he pitched seven innings of one run baseball.
But the real focus tonight is on Kyle Lohse. After a strong April, Lohse crashed back to reality in May, getting tagged for six runs, seven runs, and four runs in his first three starts of the month before his last outing against Kansas City, which was a strong scoreless eight innings. After that start on May 23, Lohse hasn’t pitched in 11 days due to stiffness in his right forearm. Not good for a right-handed pitcher.
Factoring in potential rust and potential injury, as well as Cincinnati sending one of their best to the mound, it is a wonder that you can get the Reds at +anything today.
Pick 4: Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins Under 8 (+100)
With a shoulder injury, Asdrubal Cabrera joins Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner in the injured-bats-Cleveland-desperately-needs club. Four of Cleveland’s last six games have produced three runs or less on offense, and losing their productive. Rookie Anthony Swarzak has turned in two strong efforts to start off his career, and if he can handle Milwaukee and Boston, I’m sure he can handle a beat up Cleveland.
Cliff Lee takes the mound for the Indians, and he speaks for himself. While getting no run support all season, Lee has been incredible, giving up three runs or less in nine straight starts. Don’t see either starter giving up more than three runs, and one of them will probably do even better than that. Should be a good old fashioned pitcher’s duel in Minnesota.
Pick 5: Oakland A’s @ Chicago White Sox Under 8.5 (-105)
Clayton Richard was pitching well in relief, but got the call to be a starter and has done so very well. In his first start of the season he was shaky, giving up four runs in less then four innings to Cleveland. But since then he has settled into the roll nicely, putting together three straight strong starts. Granted, they weren’t against the best offenses; a slumping Toronto, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City; but isn’t Oakland in that category, too?
Outman continues to be one of the best kept secrets in baseball, somehow quietly compiling a 3.06 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over eight starts and two relief appearances. Pull up his game log this season and look for an outing he’s given up more than three earned runs in. You will be looking for a while; it hasn’t happened.
Chicago ranks 24th in total offense. Oakland ranks 26th. With two good young pitchers on the mound, I’ll take the under.
Good Luck!
FULL DISCLOSURE: I am negative units on the season, as you can see in my signature and on my spreadsheet. While I do work really hard to cap these games and hope to finish the season in the green, don't want anyone tailing me thinking I'm better than I actually am. Hopefully if you choose to tail me its because you agree with my write-ups
.