Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 05/29/09 (Write-Ups)
Cliff Lee and the Indians (-126) to beat hot Yankees
Cliff Lee has been pitching like a Cy Young winner this season and should tame the hot bats of the New York Yankees tonight. Oakland and Cincinnati are also nice bets this evening.
Pick 1: Cleveland Indians -126 over New York Yankees
After two rough starts to start the season, Cliff Lee righted the ship and has looked like the strong pitcher he was last year. Clearly his good fortune from last year has leveled off this year as he is no longer getting the run support he was last year, and more fly balls and seeing eye ground balls are resulting in base hits instead of outs like they were in 2008.
Even with the inevitable leveling-off, Lee has still put together a sparkling 3.04 ERA on the season, and has given up three runs or less in eight straight starts (two runs or less in six of the eight). His command of the strike zone is excellent, and his ability to throw pitches for strikes and get ahead of batters continues to pay dividends this season.
On the flip side, Andy Pettitte has been the beneficiary of New York’s daunting offense. After getting off to a good start this season, Pettitte has had a terrible May, giving up four runs or more in four of his five starts and putting together a 5.46 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and a .310 BAA. Despite that, he is 2-0 this month.
Tonight I think the luck reverses for these guys. The Indians should finally get Lee the run support he deserves, and the Yankees won’t be able to do the same for Pettitte with Lee on the mound.
Pick 2: Oakland Athletics -106 over Texas Rangers (Game 1)
Josh Outman has made a believer out of me.
Outman used to be known for his unorthodox delivery, but has worked with pitching coaches to correct it, showing a great deal of maturity in overcoming the mental and physical struggles that come with re-learning how to pitch. Nowadays he is known for making people miss, to the tune of a 2.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a .212 BAA.
Through five starts in May he has been even better, with a 2.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a .185 BAA against. He has given up two runs or less in four of his five starts in May.
I don’t expect those numbers to look so dazzling after a run-in with Texas. But tonight he faces Tommy Hunter, who was miserable in a brief stint in the pros last year and has been nothing special in the minors this year with a 4.98 ERA and a .297 BAA in nine combined starts between Double A and Triple A. If Outman can keep the Rangers’ bats within reason, the A’s should be able to hit Hunter hard enough to pick up the win tonight.
Pick 3: Cincinnati Reds -115 over Milwaukee Brewers
There is definitely more to capping baseball than starting pitching; but sometimes, its best not to over think it.
You have Johnny Cueto on one side who has been outstanding all season long with a remarkable 2.37 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He has gone seven innings or more in seven straight starts. The kid can flat out pitch, and he has been doing so consistently all season long. Does it hurt that his career against Milwaukee in three starts includes and ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 0.93?
On the other side you have Braden Looper, who got off to a nice start to the season but has seen the wheels fall off in May. Much like Pettitte above, he has given up at least four runs in his last five starts, compiling a May ERA of 6.04 and a WHIP of 1.41.
Looper is a serviceable starter while Cueto is a potential star in the making. While Looper is pitching like a serviceable starter and Cueto is pitching like a star, what’s not to love about the young gun tonight?
Cliff Lee has been pitching like a Cy Young winner this season and should tame the hot bats of the New York Yankees tonight. Oakland and Cincinnati are also nice bets this evening.
Pick 1: Cleveland Indians -126 over New York Yankees
After two rough starts to start the season, Cliff Lee righted the ship and has looked like the strong pitcher he was last year. Clearly his good fortune from last year has leveled off this year as he is no longer getting the run support he was last year, and more fly balls and seeing eye ground balls are resulting in base hits instead of outs like they were in 2008.
Even with the inevitable leveling-off, Lee has still put together a sparkling 3.04 ERA on the season, and has given up three runs or less in eight straight starts (two runs or less in six of the eight). His command of the strike zone is excellent, and his ability to throw pitches for strikes and get ahead of batters continues to pay dividends this season.
On the flip side, Andy Pettitte has been the beneficiary of New York’s daunting offense. After getting off to a good start this season, Pettitte has had a terrible May, giving up four runs or more in four of his five starts and putting together a 5.46 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and a .310 BAA. Despite that, he is 2-0 this month.
Tonight I think the luck reverses for these guys. The Indians should finally get Lee the run support he deserves, and the Yankees won’t be able to do the same for Pettitte with Lee on the mound.
Pick 2: Oakland Athletics -106 over Texas Rangers (Game 1)
Josh Outman has made a believer out of me.
Outman used to be known for his unorthodox delivery, but has worked with pitching coaches to correct it, showing a great deal of maturity in overcoming the mental and physical struggles that come with re-learning how to pitch. Nowadays he is known for making people miss, to the tune of a 2.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a .212 BAA.
Through five starts in May he has been even better, with a 2.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a .185 BAA against. He has given up two runs or less in four of his five starts in May.
I don’t expect those numbers to look so dazzling after a run-in with Texas. But tonight he faces Tommy Hunter, who was miserable in a brief stint in the pros last year and has been nothing special in the minors this year with a 4.98 ERA and a .297 BAA in nine combined starts between Double A and Triple A. If Outman can keep the Rangers’ bats within reason, the A’s should be able to hit Hunter hard enough to pick up the win tonight.
Pick 3: Cincinnati Reds -115 over Milwaukee Brewers
There is definitely more to capping baseball than starting pitching; but sometimes, its best not to over think it.
You have Johnny Cueto on one side who has been outstanding all season long with a remarkable 2.37 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He has gone seven innings or more in seven straight starts. The kid can flat out pitch, and he has been doing so consistently all season long. Does it hurt that his career against Milwaukee in three starts includes and ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 0.93?
On the other side you have Braden Looper, who got off to a nice start to the season but has seen the wheels fall off in May. Much like Pettitte above, he has given up at least four runs in his last five starts, compiling a May ERA of 6.04 and a WHIP of 1.41.
Looper is a serviceable starter while Cueto is a potential star in the making. While Looper is pitching like a serviceable starter and Cueto is pitching like a star, what’s not to love about the young gun tonight?