Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 05/28/09 (Write-Ups)
Derek Lowe (+114) to outduel Dan Haren in the desert
Both Dan Haren and Derek Lowe have been impressive this season, but look for the Braves to get the last laugh tonight. Randy Wolf leading the Dodgers to an upset over the Cubs rounds off the card.
Pick 1: Atlanta Braves +114 over Arizona Diamondbacks
On paper, this looks like a good old fashioned pitchers duel.
Derek Lowe has given up exactly two runs in five of his last six starts, most against tougher offenses than the Diamondbacks, so there is no reason to believe that today shouldn’t be another two run or less performance for Lowe.
Dan Haren meanwhile has returned to earth a bit after his insanely strong April. In his last three starts he has given up at least three runs in each, including a five run outing against the Oakland A’s in which he surrendered four long balls in his last trip out.
The stage is set for a pitchers duel in the desert, and I’d argue that Lowe is not only in better form at the moment but also has the better supporting cast. If you like the "how they’ve pitched against this team in the past" stat (which I find to be a bit overrated), you’ll like that Lowe has a 3.66 ERA in 17 starts against the Diamondbacks while Haren has a 6.88 ERA in three starts against the Braves.
That last fairly useless stat or not, there is plenty of reason to like the Braves today against a weak Diamondbacks team, especially at +money.
Pick 2: Los Angeles Dodgers +118 over Chicago Cubs
Randy Wells has certainly taken the league by storm, starting off his season with two straight scoreless outings before giving up only three in a respectable seven inning effort in his last out.
Randy Wolf has been no slouch himself this season, compiling a 3.02 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, giving up two earned runs or less in five of his last six games (including three one run games and one no earned game). When he has been off this season he has given up four runs at the maximum, at least giving his team a chance to stay in the game.
Yes the Cubs have broken their eight game losing streak against the Pirates with two straight wins, but I don’t think all of their problems are in the past. The offense still looks shaky, and the Dodgers have been on a roll, winning eight of their last ten and hitting the ball well.
If Wells has another fantastic outing and beats me, so be it. I’ll ride with the hot bats and the pitcher that has been consistent all season long and take the Dodgers at surprisingly great value today.
Good Luck!
Both Dan Haren and Derek Lowe have been impressive this season, but look for the Braves to get the last laugh tonight. Randy Wolf leading the Dodgers to an upset over the Cubs rounds off the card.
Pick 1: Atlanta Braves +114 over Arizona Diamondbacks
On paper, this looks like a good old fashioned pitchers duel.
Derek Lowe has given up exactly two runs in five of his last six starts, most against tougher offenses than the Diamondbacks, so there is no reason to believe that today shouldn’t be another two run or less performance for Lowe.
Dan Haren meanwhile has returned to earth a bit after his insanely strong April. In his last three starts he has given up at least three runs in each, including a five run outing against the Oakland A’s in which he surrendered four long balls in his last trip out.
The stage is set for a pitchers duel in the desert, and I’d argue that Lowe is not only in better form at the moment but also has the better supporting cast. If you like the "how they’ve pitched against this team in the past" stat (which I find to be a bit overrated), you’ll like that Lowe has a 3.66 ERA in 17 starts against the Diamondbacks while Haren has a 6.88 ERA in three starts against the Braves.
That last fairly useless stat or not, there is plenty of reason to like the Braves today against a weak Diamondbacks team, especially at +money.
Pick 2: Los Angeles Dodgers +118 over Chicago Cubs
Randy Wells has certainly taken the league by storm, starting off his season with two straight scoreless outings before giving up only three in a respectable seven inning effort in his last out.
Randy Wolf has been no slouch himself this season, compiling a 3.02 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, giving up two earned runs or less in five of his last six games (including three one run games and one no earned game). When he has been off this season he has given up four runs at the maximum, at least giving his team a chance to stay in the game.
Yes the Cubs have broken their eight game losing streak against the Pirates with two straight wins, but I don’t think all of their problems are in the past. The offense still looks shaky, and the Dodgers have been on a roll, winning eight of their last ten and hitting the ball well.
If Wells has another fantastic outing and beats me, so be it. I’ll ride with the hot bats and the pitcher that has been consistent all season long and take the Dodgers at surprisingly great value today.
Good Luck!