Totals Streak 2017

[sportsbetter21]

Keeping this simple
If you want to know how Im determining plays simply ask and I shall tell
so for now will just list plays and see where it goes

Todays plays
Starting bankroll $1000
Betting units are to win 1% of bankroll
Tor vs NYY over 7.5
Bal vs Bos over 8.5
Cle vs Det over 8.5
CWS vs KC over 9

Record 0-0
Current bankroll $1000

[TechnicalTrader]

Well, how are you determining plays kind sir?

Please no video reply!

[sportsbetter21]

Im going to try and do a better job and posting that total streaks
once a team has 3 overs or 3 unders, Im going to bet 1 unit that the streak continues then continue betting it until the streak ends
For example: Team X has 3 current overs so i will bet the over on the total (not the team total) for that game for 1 unit.
If it wins the over streak for team X moves to 4. I will then bet another unit on the over. I will continue this betting pattern until an under occurs for team X.

[cooperman]

How far back have you back tested this to determine it's feasibility? No doubt teams go on stretches of good offense and bad offense. I think umpires are worth tracking too. They favor over or under base on how they see the strike zone from year to year

Good luck on your effort my friend

[TechnicalTrader]

I haven't looked all teams yet but I have the Yankees at 23-19 in 2016. Assuming you are paying -110, that is breakeven. Do you have any exact numbers?

[TechnicalTrader]

OK, I'm not sure if I did this correctly because the numbers are almost too good to be true. Below is the performance of each and every play, sorted by streak length:


2016:

Over plays:

Streak	Over	Under	Push	Units won/loss
3	300	242	20	33.8
4	184	137	12	33.3
5	72	65	9	0.5
6	43	24	6	16.6
7	27	14	0	11.6
8	13	12	2	-0.2
9	6	6	1	-0.6
10	1	4	1	-3.4
11	0	1	0	-1.1

Under plays:

Streak	Over	Under	Push	Units won/loss
3	253	311	22	32.7
4	126	168	12	29.4
5	67	96	3	22.3
6	40	54	2	10
7	21	32	1	8.9
8	11	21	0	8.9
9	7	14	0	6.3
10	5	9	0	3.5
11	3	6	0	2.7
12	2	4	0	1.8
13	1	3	0	1.9
14	1	2	0	0.9
15	1	1	0	-0.1
16	1	0	0	-1.1

What you basically see is (top row, overs); out of 562 plays were a team went over three times in a row, 300 went over, 242 went under and 20 pushed with a profit of ca. 33.8 units.


Let me know if you came up with similar numbers! Thanks

[sportsbetter21]

I did a generic back test of last years numbers and it was 70+ units

I realize this is a smaller sample size but it is what it is
My theory is this, at end of the season it will be 49% win loss ratio with 1% push
Team X goes on 3 game total streak and you make your first bet (which would be game 4 of the streak) and it loses for 1.1%
Team Y goes on 3 game total streak and you make your first bet and it wins for +1%
Team Y is now on a 4 a game total steak and you make your 2nd bet and it wins for +1% running total 2 units
Team Y is now on a 5 game total steak and you make your 3rd bet and it wins for +1% running total 3 units
Team Y is now on a 6 game total streak and you make your 4th bet and it wins for +1% running total 4 units
Team Y is now on a 7 game total streak and it loses for -1.1% for a total of 2.9 units
Catch my drift?

How far back have you back tested this to determine it's feasibility? No doubt teams go on stretches of good offense and bad offense. I think umpires are worth tracking too. They favor over or under base on how they see the strike zone from year to year

Good luck on your effort my friend

[sportsbetter21]

Theoretically similar numbers
if both teams playing are at game 3 you would bet 2 units (one for each team)
33.8 x 2 = 67.4 units

OK, I'm not sure if I did this correctly because the numbers are almost too good to be true. Below is the performance of each and every play, sorted by streak length:


2016:

Over plays:

Streak	Over	Under	Push	Units won/loss
3	300	242	20	33.8
4	184	137	12	33.3
5	72	65	9	0.5
6	43	24	6	16.6
7	27	14	0	11.6
8	13	12	2	-0.2
9	6	6	1	-0.6
10	1	4	1	-3.4
11	0	1	0	-1.1

Under plays:

Streak	Over	Under	Push	Units won/loss
3	253	311	22	32.7
4	126	168	12	29.4
5	67	96	3	22.3
6	40	54	2	10
7	21	32	1	8.9
8	11	21	0	8.9
9	7	14	0	6.3
10	5	9	0	3.5
11	3	6	0	2.7
12	2	4	0	1.8
13	1	3	0	1.9
14	1	2	0	0.9
15	1	1	0	-0.1
16	1	0	0	-1.1

What you basically see is (top row, overs); out of 562 plays were a team went over three times in a row, 300 went over, 242 went under and 20 pushed with a profit of ca. 33.8 units.


Let me know if you came up with similar numbers! Thanks

[TechnicalTrader]

I completely understand what you are trying and the numbers I see back up your theory. I'm just a bit concerned about the performance I see. 218 units in one season is a lot! I'll give it a rest for today and take a more detailed look at it tomorrow.

Take a look at what the Orioles did in July of last year:



That's 13-2!!! Then 15-7!

[TechnicalTrader]

Today's plays???

BAL OVER
STL OVER
CIN OVER
DET OVER
CWS OVER
NYY OVER


(NO unders)


Did you miss CIN and STL or maybe you're just using different closing odds....

[Scrivero]

Damn, this sounds very tempting. Very nice backtesting results. I cant figure out the SDQL query/queries so could someone (TT?) check the 2015 season as well (or post the SDQL query/queries)? This sounds almost too good to be true.

[TechnicalTrader]

season=2015 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O

That gives you all games, where the team went over during their last three. Just add p4:O to get last 4. And so on and so on.

[Scrivero]

Thanks TT! Well, the results:
2015: Overs after a streak of 3 and 4 and 5 and 6 and even 7 and even 8 did again very very good. After a streak of 8 it still went 19-8-1 after a streak of 9 still 13-6. Im gonna stop there, this one looks amazing.

2015: Unders did NOT do well. They were basically negative or +-0 for everything, after a streak of 3, 4, 5 and so on.

But the Over streak.. damn....

Season 2014 was negative for all Over streaks. Same thing with the Under streaks as well.

Season 2017 has been good again with the Overs with streaks of 3 and 4.

[sportsbetter21]

Yes on the cin and stl with their streaks being at 6 and 8
Just wanted to start clean with teams on their starting streak

Today's plays???

BAL OVER
STL OVER
CIN OVER
DET OVER
CWS OVER
NYY OVER


(NO unders)


Did you miss CIN and STL or maybe you're just using different closing odds....

[sportsbetter21]

Starting bankroll $1000
Betting units are to win 1% of bankroll
Todays plays
Mil vs stl over 8
tor vs nyy over 8.5
oak vs min over 8
tb vs mia under 8

Yesterdays results

Tor vs NYY over 7.5 win
Bal vs Bos over 8.5 loss
Cle vs Det over 8.5 loss
CWS vs KC over 9 loss

Current record: 1-3 for -2.3 units
Current bankroll $967

[TechnicalTrader]

Stl, over 7.5
tb, under 8.0
min, over 8.0
nyy, over 9.0
??

[Looking4Winners]

Stl, over 7.5
tb, under 8.0
min, over 8.0
nyy, over 9.0
??

Shouldn't the Mets also be a play even though they have a push in the mix?

[TechnicalTrader]

When I ran the numbers, a push reset the sequence. Not sure how OP is running his system though.

[sportsbetter21]

Starting bankroll $1000
Betting units are to win 1% of bankroll
Todays plays 5/3
NY Yankees vs tor Over 8.5
Minnesota vs oak Over 8.
5NY Mets vs atl Over 8
Tampa Bay vs mia Under 8
Boston vs bal Under 9


Yesterdays results 5/2
Mil vs stl over 8 loss
tor vs nyy over 8.5 win
oak vs min over 8 win
tb vs mia under 8 win



Current record: 4-4 for -0.4 units
Current bankroll $996

[Scrivero]

Starting bankroll $1000
Betting units are to win 1% of bankroll
Todays plays 5/3


Yesterdays results 5/2
Mil vs stl over 8 loss
tor vs nyy over 8.5 win
oak vs min over 8 win
tb vs mia under 8 win



Current record: 4-4 for -0.4 units
Current bankroll $996

Nice job! Im tailing everything unless my fades and nfl_huskers plays have the opposite. The numbers from this thread are enough for me to trust your system.

[sportsbetter21]

I would seriously think twice before doing so
numbers havent been proven live yet
Just giving you fair warning

Nice job! Im tailing everything unless my fades and nfl_huskers plays have the opposite. The numbers from this thread are enough for me to trust your system.

[Mike Huntertz]

I'm also following this. Using it as another tool rather than tail blindly.
I have a lot of other filters for over plays.
GL

[Scrivero]

I would seriously think twice before doing so
numbers havent been proven live yet
Just giving you fair warning

Indeed, system is not proven until its proven. And like my backtesting in post number 13 showed, season 2014 would have been negative/+-0 for Over and Under streaks. 2015 would have been good with Overs but not with Unders. This year is again good with Overs but not with Unders. Still, I feel that when it comes to Over/Under systems, yours seem to be a very potential one at least. It seems to be either +-0 OR a very good profit, depending on the season. Also, like I mentioned, I have a few stages with my tails. In the first stage I "filter" 80 % of the plays from this board and turn them into my fades. Then I check the nfl_huskers O/U plays from his system that seems to be very very effective and tail the ones I have not yet filtered out/faded. After that, if you seem to have some plays left which I havent played yet, I will tail.

To make it short, thanks for posting the plays!

[sportsbetter21]

Starting bankroll $1000
Betting units are to win 1% of bankroll

Sorry for late posting. Missed the early games but will keep then on for tracking purposes
there are a ton of games today due to both teams are beyond the minimum 3 streak requirement

Todays plays 5/4
phi vs chi over (2 units)
ny mets vs atl over (2 units)
oak vs min over (2 units)
cle vs det under (2 units)
bal vs bos under (2 units)
cws vs kc under (2 units)
LAA vs Sea (1 unit)


Yesterdays results 5/3
NY Yankees vs tor Over 8.5 win
Minnesota vs oak Over 8. win
NY Mets vs atl Over 8 win
Tampa Bay vs mia Under 8 loss
Boston vs bal Under 9 win
Current record: 8-5 for +2.5units
Current bankroll $1025

[sportsbetter21]

Starting bankroll $1000
Betting units are to win 1% of bankroll
ouch for me
since i missed the early games i chose not to bet any of today's game


Todays plays 5/5

Yesterdays results 5/4phi vs chi over 6.5 (2 units) win
ny mets vs atl over (2 units) no game
oak vs min over 9 (2 units) win
cle vs det under (2 units) no game
bal vs bos under 9.5 (2 units) win
cws vs kc under 7.5(2 units) win
LAA vs Sea over 8.5 (1 unit) win

Current record: 17-5 for +11.5units
Current bankroll $1025

[Scrivero]

Doing rather well, to say the least. I missed last night's post as I had to bounce already before I saw your post. Im gonna run the query for the streaks myself on the coming evenings and try to get the right plays (shouldnt be a problem, killersports should show everything right). Not posting them here though. Just to not miss the plays just because I cant be here when youre posting. Nice job man

I think I might even put your plays before my fade plays. As in check what your plays would be and play them even if my fade system would show a fade for the play. Probably doing the same with huskers' plays too.

[sportsbetter21]

Starting bankroll $1000
Betting units are to win 1% of bankroll

NYY vs Cubs over (2 units) no line yet
Min vs bos over 9
Oak vs Det over 8 (2 units)
Sea vs tex over 7.5 (2 units)
NY mets vs Mia over 9
Was vs phi over 8
Atl vs stl over 8.5
LAA vs hou over 2 units no line yet
Tor vs TB over 7.5
Cle vs KC Under no line yet

Todays plays 5/5

Yesterdays results 5/4phi vs chi over 6.5 (2 units) win
ny mets vs atl over (2 units) no game
oak vs min over 9 (2 units) win
cle vs det under (2 units) no game
bal vs bos under 9.5 (2 units) win
cws vs kc under 7.5(2 units) win
LAA vs Sea over 8.5 (1 unit) win

Current record: 17-5 for +11.5units
Current bankroll $1115

[Looking4Winners]

Starting bankroll $1000
Betting units are to win 1% of bankroll

NYY vs Cubs over (2 units) no line yet
Min vs bos over 9
Oak vs Det over 8 (2 units)
Sea vs tex over 7.5 (2 units)
NY mets vs Mia over 9
Was vs phi over 8
Atl vs stl over 8.5
LAA vs hou over 2 units no line yet
Tor vs TB over 7.5
Cle vs KC Under no line yet

Todays plays 5/5

Yesterdays results 5/4phi vs chi over 6.5 (2 units) win
ny mets vs atl over (2 units) no game
oak vs min over 9 (2 units) win
cle vs det under (2 units) no game
bal vs bos under 9.5 (2 units) win
cws vs kc under 7.5(2 units) win
LAA vs Sea over 8.5 (1 unit) win

Current record: 17-5 for +11.5units
Current bankroll $1115

Bal vs Boston was a loser - Final 8-3
CWS vs KC was a loser - Final 8-3

Thinking you may have looked at wrong days results..

Curious about today's A's/Tigers match up. You have it as an over play. The A's are on a 4 game Over streak while the Tigers are on a 3 game under streak. Did you select Over since the A's are on a longer streak?

[Dano85]

Bal vs Boston was a loser - Final 8-3
CWS vs KC was a loser - Final 8-3

Thinking you may have looked at wrong days results..

Curious about today's A's/Tigers match up. You have it as an over play. The A's are on a 4 game Over streak while the Tigers are on a 3 game under streak. Did you select Over since the A's are on a longer streak?

This as far as record and was thinking exactly this question today...what happens when opposite streaks collide

[Scrivero]

Bal vs Boston was a loser - Final 8-3
CWS vs KC was a loser - Final 8-3

Thinking you may have looked at wrong days results..

Curious about today's A's/Tigers match up. You have it as an over play. The A's are on a 4 game Over streak while the Tigers are on a 3 game under streak. Did you select Over since the A's are on a longer streak?

You are correct about the results. I just checked the plays for tonight with those mistakes in mind. The plays for tonight are still correct, as Cleveland has a 3 game Under streak even if KC's streak was ended.

[Dano85]

You are correct about the results. I just checked the plays for tonight with those mistakes in mind. The plays for tonight are still correct, as Cleveland has a 3 game Under streak even if KC's streak was ended.

thats corrects but he asked about Oak vs Det where it is opposite streaks

2017 3O v 3U = OU:

3-3-0 (-0.17, 50.0%)

avg total: 8.2

over / under: -$25 / -$45

ROI: -3.8% / -6.7%

2016 3O v3U = OU:

10-10-0 (1.10, 50.0%)

avg total: 8.6

over / under: -$104 / -$80

ROI: -4.7% / -3.7%

2015 3O v 3U =OU:

13-10-1 (0.21, 56.5%)

avg total: 7.8

over / under: +$207 / -$468

ROI: +8.0% / -17.3%

2014 3O v 3U = OU:

7-6-0 (1.23, 53.8%)

avg total: 7.5

over / under: +$50 / -$255

ROI: +3.2% / -16.7%

2013 3O v 3U = OU:

11-9-0 (0.42, 55.0%)

avg total: 8.0

over / under: +$85 / -$360

ROI: +3.9% / -16.2%

They all move to + if the O team lost their previous game....fairly small samples though

[Looking4Winners]

You are correct about the results. I just checked the plays for tonight with those mistakes in mind. The plays for tonight are still correct, as Cleveland has a 3 game Under streak even if KC's streak was ended.

Scrivero - I'm not questioning the Cleveland play for today. The one I was asking about was the A's/Tigers. Both teams are on streaks but opposite of each other. A's riding a 4 game Over streak while the Tiger's have gone Under in 3 straight. As Dano85 stated what happens when opposite streaks collide? Is Sportsbetter playing the Over because the A's are on a longer Over streak then the Tigers Under streak?

[Scrivero]

Sorry for being a bit uncler on what I meant. I was not answering the question but merely confirming that those wrong results of those two games did not mess up the list of plays by sportbetter. I should have left that part of the quote out where Looking4Winners was askimg about the A's/Tigers game. Sorry for the confusion.

I would also assume that sportbetter just follows the longer streak as he already started playing that streak when it was just a streak of 3. One could of course just let the two two streaks cancel out each other and not play the streak for that night for either team. One could also play both streaks but that would be just throwing money away because one streak of course continues (either over or under streak wins) but the bookie gets their cut still.

I just played all the plays listed by sportbetter to keep it simple.

[sportsbetter21]

Thanks
I will correct when i get home from work
As for the As im just taking because it "outranks" the under
In situation like these One of them will change after tonights game

Bal vs Boston was a loser - Final 8-3
CWS vs KC was a loser - Final 8-3

Thinking you may have looked at wrong days results..

Curious about today's A's/Tigers match up. You have it as an over play. The A's are on a 4 game Over streak while the Tigers are on a 3 game under streak. Did you select Over since the A's are on a longer streak?

[Dano85]

3 straight overs and a <=7.5 line
2017 -

7-12-2 (-0.95, 36.8%)

avg total: 7.3

over / under: -$622 / +$405

2016 -

61-71-3 (0.14, 46.2%)

avg total: 7.3

over / under: -$1,696 / +$471

2015 -

149-123-15 (0.76, 54.8%)

avg total: 7.2

over / under: +$1,476 / -$3,978

2014 - OU:

95-127-12 (0.09, 42.8%)

avg total: 7.2

over / under: -$4,320 / +$2,165

2013 - OU: 80-99-5 (0.32, 44.7%) avg total: 7.2 over / under: -$2,885 / +$1,015 Since 2010 - 590-660-56 (0.35, 47.2%) avg total: 7.2 over / under: -$13,112 / +$1,148

Might be worth avoiding these???