MLB - Thursday, 4/20/17

LT Profits · 04-20-17, 07:21 AM

No totals yet, which might make some people happy.

dirtycash66 · 04-20-17, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No totals yet, which might make some people happy.

People might be happy if you just stop posting plays completely…..i know i would

eddycash · 04-20-17, 09:00 AM

I quit totals last week, glad I did

newguy · 04-20-17, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

People might be happy if you just stop posting plays completely…..i know i would

Why? Seriously don't understand why people would ask a poster to NOT post plays on a gambling forum?!?!

juicername · 04-20-17, 09:05 AM

Think I'll tail that Oakland play. Absolutely nothing suggest they have any business winning this game, and that seems to be a lock winner in MLB nowadays.

Conor McBettor · 04-20-17, 09:26 AM

So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense

ThePittsburghuh · 04-20-17, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by Conor McBettor

So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense

Yeah I absolutely don't get some of these plays, same with the pit stl over yesterday

watsui · 04-20-17, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

People might be happy if you just stop posting plays completely…..i know i would

People would throw a party if you would go jump off a cliff

johnnydallaz · 04-20-17, 01:23 PM

Thanks LT, Best MLB thread!

tatddy · 04-20-17, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by Conor McBettor

So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense

LT may be a losing gambler but this is one of the dumbest posts of the week. What's past isn't always prologue and...nice sample size "run all year".

Hey...J. Teheran came into yesterday having given up only 2 runs in 19 innings and an ERA under 2. How'd he fare?

FUqer · 04-20-17, 02:07 PM

First time I replied to an LT thread but I been checking them for years, here are a few thoughts.

He isn't playing with your money.
He didn't force anyone to tail any picks.
He wasn't shit talking.

So what's the problem? The guy post everyday and answers people's questions as best he can. I've never seen him start shit with anyone. So what he made a bad pick, there are ways to let him know you disagree without being a prick about it. He went against the consensus, sometimes it works and sometimes it don't. LT had one of the best seasons I ever witnessed a couple seasons ago of +100 units and is a nice guy, give the man the respect he deserves.

eddycash · 04-20-17, 02:10 PM

most of us are just kidding with LT we know he is solid, that guy conor is just a rookie

Rich Boy · 04-20-17, 02:34 PM

Bos -1.5 in a miracle cover here, unreal

LT Profits · 04-20-17, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by Conor McBettor

So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense

So that means Paxton won't allow a run all season?

Look I LIKE Paxton, he was actually undervalued much of the time the last couple of seasons. But the pendulum has now swung as he seems overpriced here. Model has Seattle winning this game 56% of the time which is -127, so I simply felt +152 was great +EV.

As for total, I get 7.6 so no opinion.

stackz125 · 04-20-17, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Bos -1.5 in a miracle cover here, unreal

Errr nvm

Conor McBettor · 04-20-17, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

So that means Paxton won't allow a run all season?

Look I LIKE Paxton, he was actually undervalued much of the time the last couple of seasons. But the pendulum has now swung as he seems overpriced here. Model has Seattle winning this game 56% of the time which is -127, so I simply felt +152 was great +EV.

As for total, I get 7.6 so no opinion.

No opinion on a total? You should use that approach more often

Deucerd · 04-20-17, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by FUqer

First time I replied to an LT thread but I been checking them for years, here are a few thoughts.

He isn't playing with your money.
He didn't force anyone to tail any picks.
He wasn't shit talking.

So what's the problem? The guy post everyday and answers people's questions as best he can. I've never seen him start shit with anyone. So what he made a bad pick, there are ways to let him know you disagree without being a prick about it. He went against the consensus, sometimes it works and sometimes it don't. LT had one of the best seasons I ever witnessed a couple seasons ago of +100 units and is a nice guy, give the man the respect he deserves.

This is an absolutely on point post FUqer. If any of these guys were so amazing they'd be retired off there gambling profits and drinking out of coconut shells on a beach somewhere. Not worried about how good or bad somebody posting picks, for free, is doing on SBR. Keep doing what you do LT. Hope you get it turned around bro. Don't worry about the chum buckets, which it doesn't look like you do. BOL

RavensFan2k3 · 04-20-17, 04:23 PM

I understand the Oak play. Looking more into it myself

LT Profits · 04-20-17, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Conor McBettor

No opinion on a total? You should use that approach more often

It so happens I have no opinion on any totals today!

Those will turn around though, they almost always do.

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 04-20-17, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

People might be happy if you just stop posting plays completely…..i know i would

Fading works really well. You'd be up a fortune if you did so across all sports dating back to last year.

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 04-20-17, 05:41 PM

Smartest thing to do is fade the model.

crackerjack · 04-20-17, 05:47 PM

If you read LTs post you'd understand why he bets what he does. It's Value. He doesn't necessarily think As will win, but he thinks he gets good value betting them. I have my own opinions about this way of betting, but I'll keep them to myself.

Conqueror · 04-20-17, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by crackerjack

If you read LTs post you'd understand why he bets what he does. It's Value. He doesn't necessarily think As will win, but he thinks he gets good value betting them. I have my own opinions about this way of betting, but I'll keep them to myself.

Great post!

RavensFan2k3 · 04-20-17, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

2 MLB Plays Thursday

Angels +156 (Heritage)
Athletics +152 (Heritage)

YTD: 64-78-2, -10.74

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I understand the Oak play. Looking more into it myself

Looking good for us

tatddy · 04-21-17, 01:34 AM

Can this Conner Mcnobody ghost have been buried any harder today? Nice win, LT.

chargers4222 · 04-21-17, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by Conor McBettor

So let me get this straight...playing the A's is your play today. when they are facing Paxton who hasn't given up a run all year. That's fine, but how in the hell does that not make the Under 8 in that game a play?

You really expect the A's to score 5 runs against the dude who hasn't given up a run the whole season? Come on. Use some common sense

No, he expected them to score 9.