Tony Chau's NFL for baseball picks

[PokeyAristocrat]

Started this last year mid Aug. Was down over 30 units. Ran it until the end of regular season and came out plus units. So far I'm up 6 units. This is my 1st year playing this from the start so tread lightly.

Speaks volumes. I'm going to give this a shot. Thanks for taking the time to post rkelly, much appreciated.

[rkelly110]

Speaks volumes. I'm going to give this a shot. Thanks for taking the time to post rkelly, much appreciated.

No need to give points guys, but thank you.

No other plays for today.

[PokeyAristocrat]

Just one question. If the favourite is highly juiced, do you suggest playing the ML to win 1U or play the - RL instead?

[jcygts6]

thanks rkelly! lets clean these up

[rkelly110]

Just one question. If the favourite is highly juiced, do you suggest playing the ML to win 1U or play the - RL instead?

In my experience it's best to bet the ML. I tried that in post 13 with CLE and it bit me betting the -RL.

If a team has lost 3 in a row by 2 or more runs if a dog or a fav, in my experience has only won by one run
if a heavy fav.

I bet a unit, I don't bet to win a unit, but that's just me. Long season.

[teecee]

< 30%of these games are won by 1 run. If you expect the team being played to win, don't you think the lower juiced r/l is the way to go? Just a thought.

[PokeyAristocrat]

A newbie to this thread, but great stuff today

[jcygts6]

Another alternative is taking the big favorite on the -1 RL. So if they only win by 1 run you push instead of losing on the -1.5

[jcygts6]

Mets (B) ml today

[rkelly110]

Couple of nice B bet wins yesterday. One not needing the +RL.

3 plays today:

NYM (B) ML
LAD ML (heavy fav)
MIN +RL (canceled)

Record is 12-8

GL

[rkelly110]

< 30%of these games are won by 1 run. If you expect the team being played to win, don't you think the lower juiced r/l is the way to go? Just a thought.

I'm a girly gambler who doesn't like a lot of risk. Not the true definition of a gambler, I know.

If you are a true gambler who takes risks, betting these picks on -RL if the fav and betting the ML if the dog,
there is great reward w/o much chasing or risk using your premise of 30%.

Using my past experience with this system, a team that has lost 3 in a row SU and ATS that are heavily favored
usually (not always) just squeak out a win.

[PokeyAristocrat]

Minnesota game rescheduled. GL to all!

[rkelly110]

Minnesota game rescheduled. GL to all!

Thanks pokey.

[PokeyAristocrat]

Great sweep today

[rkelly110]

Mets (B) and Dodgers came through yesterday. Hope you cashed.

One play today.

MIN +RL early game.

GL

Record is: 14-8 64%

3 game chase system is: (for those chasing)

A 9-6
B 5-1
C 0-1

14-1 93%

[BarstoolProphet]

How many units did you lose on that 3 game chase?

[Looking4Winners]

Mets (B) and Dodgers came through yesterday. Hope you cashed.

One play today.

MIN +RL early game.

GL

Record is: 14-8 64%

3 game chase system is: (for those chasing)

A 9-6
B 5-1
C 0-1

21-1 95%

K - great job. But I have one question. You show a "C" loss but when I run a query using SDQL I see that the Jays "A" play should not have been started until April 13th. Based on your theory (Post #7) that if you lose 3 SU and none by one run if a dog, this constitutes a play. But if you look at the Blue Jays results they lost on 4/8 by 1-run as a dog. They then lost 3 SU as fav's. So the "A" play begins on 4/13 which I show in the yellow box. It looks like your "C" play would have been a winner!!!

https://www.screencast.com/t/JKghwifUs

[rkelly110]

How many units did you lose on that 3 game chase?

I didn't, because I didn't chase, but you stand to lose over 10.

[rkelly110]

K - great job. But I have one question. You show a "C" loss but when I run a query using SDQL I see that the Jays "A" play should not have been started until April 13th. Based on your theory (Post #7) that if you lose 3 SU and none by one run if a dog, this constitutes a play. But if you look at the Blue Jays results they lost on 4/8 by 1-run as a dog. They then lost 3 SU as fav's. So the "A" play begins on 4/13 which I show in the yellow box. It looks like your "C" play would have been a winner!!!

https://www.screencast.com/t/JKghwifUs

Cool screen shot thanks. I use SBR odds. It gives me the odds if they are a dog or the fav. I look for a combination
of lost by 2 or more runs if a dog or one run if the fav.

A fav could lose by one run 3 times and would be a play. The Jays were the fav quite a bit during their losses.
If I played this to the 'D' bet, it would've won.

[BarstoolProphet]

yea I just usd the screenshot odds and based on the 3 games you chased starting on the 11th,,the lose would have accumulated a 17.3 units.

So at this point given the current stats +14 wins minus the 17.3 lose. <3.3> overall lose.

However had you only chased into just two games. I have it at <7.52> and the 14 wins for a +6.48 units.

So:
2 game chase (B) +6.48 units
3 game chase (C) - 3.30 units

TBH have no idea what yourfinal percentage is representing 21-1 95% ????????

Unles you are counting games twice. But without going back and counting . there should only have been 15 plays up until this point.

Anyway..Thx for the hard work RK,,much appreciated.

[rkelly110]

yea I just usd the screenshot odds and based on the 3 games you chased starting on the 11th,,the lose would have accumulated a 17.3 units.

So at this point given the current stats +14 wins minus the 17.3 lose. <3.3> overall lose.

However had you only chased into just two games. I have it at <7.52> and the 14 wins for a +6.48 units.

So:
2 game chase (B) +6.48 units
3 game chase (C) - 3.30 units

TBH have no idea what yourfinal percentage is representing 21-1 95% ????????

Unles you are counting games twice. But without going back and counting . there should only have been 15 plays up until this point.

Anyway..Thx for the hard work RK,,much appreciated.

You are correct, I confused myself.........again, will edit.

[Looking4Winners]

Cool screen shot thanks. I use SBR odds. It gives me the odds if they are a dog or the fav. I look for a combination
of lost by 2 or more runs if a dog or one run if the fav.

A fav could lose by one run 3 times and would be a play. The Jays were the fav quite a bit during their losses.
If I played this to the 'D' bet, it would've won.

All I'm saying based on post #7 your Blue Jays "A" play would have started on April 13th not April 11th. I looked at SBR odds for April 8th and they too had the Jays as a dog. Take care. Keep up the good work..

[BarstoolProphet]

All I'm saying based on post #7 your Blue Jays "A" play would have started on April 13th not April 11th. I looked at SBR odds for April 8th and they too had the Jays as a dog. Take care. Keep up the good work..

FWIW I too had Tor at +105 at my book. on Apr 8th. But its all behind us at this point since it was listed as a play, regardless.

But I do have my eyes on this, I like it,, more so the logic that is at play.

[rkelly110]

All I'm saying based on post #7 your Blue Jays "A" play would have started on April 13th not April 11th. I looked at SBR odds for April 8th and they too had the Jays as a dog. Take care. Keep up the good work..

You are correct, my bad. My apologies to the forum. This is not the 1st time I screwed up. Having you guys keeping
me on my toes helps a lot. I'm just glad I can teach to fish, instead of giving the fish. Thanks again.

[Looking4Winners]

I've been keeping track (and playing) this logic but I start a chase after a team has dropped 4 games in a row using the same criteria. So far the A bets are 4-1, B 1-0 and there hasn't been a C play yet. Obviously no where near as many plays but to me there just seems to be to many teams dropping 3 games series this early in season. Looks like Minny will be an "A" bet for me tomorrow..

[rkelly110]

I've been keeping track (and playing) this logic but I start a chase after a team has dropped 4 games in a row using the same criteria. So far the A bets are 4-1, B 1-0 and there hasn't been a C play yet. Obviously no where near as many plays but to me there just seems to be to many teams dropping 3 games series this early in season. Looks like Minny will be an "A" bet for me tomorrow..

Good luck.

[rkelly110]

Twins didn't come through, they were leading in the 7th when the bottom dropped out.

One play today:

MIN (B) +RL

GL

[PokeyAristocrat]

Nice winner on Minny

[teecee]

Minny +397 live, baby.

[rkelly110]

Good job yesterday! Twins pull us out a nice B bet win not needing the +RL.

No plays today.

Record is: 15-9 62%

3 game chase system is: (for those chasing)

A 9-7
B 6-1
C 0-1

15-1 93%

[rkelly110]

After a day of rest we have a slew of games today.

SF ML early game
NYM +RL
CWS +RL early game
KC +RL early game

Let's get these suckas!

[PokeyAristocrat]

Let's get it rkelly

[rkelly110]

Sorry guys yesterday sucked. White socks pulled a nice SU win with nice odds, even with the +RL.

3 plays today:

SF (B) +RL
KC (B) ML
MIL +RL or ML depending on your book

GL Let's clean these up!

Record is 16-12

[PokeyAristocrat]

Great stuff today

[rkelly110]

Brewers were mad and pounded their opponent. SF gave us a nice B bet win. Neither needing the +RL.

2 plays today that need cleaned up.

NYM (B) ML
KC (C) ML

Record is 18-13

Thanks for the points guys.