MLB - Friday, 4/7/17

Regul8er · 04-07-17, 08:17 AM

WOW....10 games on a Fridee?

Goodluck to you, but hard to beat this game being an action junkie betting volume.

exlusive123 · 04-07-17, 09:14 AM

out of market prices

Originally posted by Regul8er

WOW....10 games on a Fridee?

Goodluck to you, but hard to beat this game being an action junkie betting volume.

If I could get prices that are 5 to 10c better than the real market I would bet every game. The problem here is, if you try to follow LT you can't bet on fantasy island, you have try to beat the real market. If LT ends up with a profit, which he should using prices nobody could get, any following won't get the same results. If I were posting with the intention of helping guide people with some MLB decisions, I would post using a combination of Cris and Pinnacle lines, that would be a real indication of his results.

Sam Odom · 04-07-17, 09:24 AM

good luck LT

MrAllin · 04-07-17, 09:28 AM

I can confirm those heritage prices were accurate at 5am eastern time. If u had heritage and took his games at 5am the prices would match

Sam Odom · 04-07-17, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by exlusive123

If I could get prices that are 5 to 10c better than the real market I would bet every game. The problem here is, if you try to follow LT you can't bet on fantasy island, you have try to beat the real market. If LT ends up with a profit, which he should using prices nobody could get, any following won't get the same results. If I were posting with the intention of helping guide people with some MLB decisions, I would post using a combination of Cris and Pinnacle lines, that would be a real indication of his results.

sour puss

LT Profits · 04-07-17, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by exlusive123

If I could get prices that are 5 to 10c better than the real market I would bet every game. The problem here is, if you try to follow LT you can't bet on fantasy island, you have try to beat the real market. If LT ends up with a profit, which he should using prices nobody could get, any following won't get the same results. If I were posting with the intention of helping guide people with some MLB decisions, I would post using a combination of Cris and Pinnacle lines, that would be a real indication of his results.

I am tracking MY results daily, so it is appropriate that I use prices I got. If anyone wants to follow, he/she could use his/her judgement or simply ask what my cut-off price (or model price) on a specific play is.

Dollars2Donuts · 04-07-17, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I am tracking MY results daily, so it is appropriate that I use prices I got. If anyone wants to follow, he/she could use his/her judgement or simply ask what my cut-off price (or model price) on a specific play is.

Alternatively, they could just use your lines as the cut off and just shop for lines that are better than what you most. Less games, better return.

Not it that I tail all that much in anything other than soccer where I have no clue about what I am do Big and there are a couple of sharp posters here on SBR.

LT Profits · 04-07-17, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Alternatively, they could just use your lines as the cut off and just shop for lines that are better than what you most. Less games, better return.

The thing there is it is often difficult to find better lines than the nickel overnights at 5 Dimes and 4-cent overnights at Heritage.

exlusive123 · 04-07-17, 10:34 AM

hm

Originally posted by Sam Odom

sour puss

Im not a sourpuss as it relates to my post. I don't follow his plays, it won't make a difference to me what prices he posts. I do know there are many degenerates who play any price so I was trying to make the point that these numbers are not numbers anyone who wants to follow could bet at. I would love to bet the night before the games, but there is really not much of a market. Yes, if I wanted to bet 2k a game it would be great. If LT is betting small bets at the numbers he is posting, he should be break even or maybe profitable. We could all post our plays but who cares about individual tracking, the main point of a public MLB forum is to get good information to make better decisions. Posting numbers that are not available, then keeping track via a daily track record that posts on this forum is pointless (unless Im missing something, which very well could be the case). My point was, if you are are posting to share information that could be helpful, post at the real market, not a market that might have been there for one $500 bet at 6 am

Sam Odom · 04-07-17, 10:37 AM

123

totally disagree with you

but... that is the way it is

some people make getting the best #s their 'job' and that means being up at all hours looking

MrAllin · 04-07-17, 10:49 AM

Its not like he alwayz beats the closing numbers

chico2663 · 04-07-17, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by exlusive123

Im not a sourpuss as it relates to my post. I don't follow his plays, it won't make a difference to me what prices he posts. I do know there are many degenerates who play any price so I was trying to make the point that these numbers are not numbers anyone who wants to follow could bet at. I would love to bet the night before the games, but there is really not much of a market. Yes, if I wanted to bet 2k a game it would be great. If LT is betting small bets at the numbers he is posting, he should be break even or maybe profitable. We could all post our plays but who cares about individual tracking, the main point of a public MLB forum is to get good information to make better decisions. Posting numbers that are not available, then keeping track via a daily track record that posts on this forum is pointless (unless Im missing something, which very well could be the case). My point was, if you are are posting to share information that could be helpful, post at the real market, not a market that might have been there for one $500 bet at 6 am

seeing those were the prices at heritage what are you talking about? i follow lt. I looked at his lines on heritage at 9 am and they were correct. Maybe you should switch to heritage for the reduced juice

LT Profits · 04-07-17, 11:31 AM

Also, I always post my plays minutes after I bet them. you will not see a 6:00 AM lines posted two hours later.

MickeyMan · 04-07-17, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by exlusive123

If I could get prices that are 5 to 10c better than the real market I would bet every game. The problem here is, if you try to follow LT you can't bet on fantasy island, you have try to beat the real market. If LT ends up with a profit, which he should using prices nobody could get, any following won't get the same results. If I were posting with the intention of helping guide people with some MLB decisions, I would post using a combination of Cris and Pinnacle lines, that would be a real indication of his results.

How long have you been waiting to get that off your chest?

No coincidences · 04-07-17, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

123

totally disagree with you

but... that is the way it is

some people make getting the best #s their 'job' and that means being up at all hours looking

Which means absolutely nothing.

juicername · 04-07-17, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Which means absolutely nothing.

I assume you think paying $10 or $11 for a meal makes no difference in your wallet either then?

BarstoolProphet · 04-07-17, 01:25 PM

LT I cant seem to get the weekly mlb contest to update the standings.

I cleared cookies and all temp files which I had to do in order to post picks back in the nfl. Is this common?

My last update for the standings is like WED night.

BarstoolProphet · 04-07-17, 01:49 PM

It appears it has updated now... I didnt know that it was not automated.

All is good.

Good Luck

LT Profits · 04-07-17, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by BarstoolProphet

LT I cant seem to get the weekly mlb contest to update the standings.

I cleared cookies and all temp files which I had to do in order to post picks back in the nfl. Is this common?

My last update for the standings is like WED night.

It's not you, the standings were stuck. Check now.

LT Profits · 04-07-17, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by BarstoolProphet

It appears it has updated now... I didnt know that it was not automated.

All is good.

Good Luck

It is SUPPOSED to be automated, there have been some issues the last few days.

eddycash · 04-07-17, 02:06 PM

Ill tail az and oak only bol

LT Profits · 04-07-17, 02:54 PM

2 MLB Additions

12 MLB Plays Friday

Padres +113 (Heritage)
Giants / Padres OVER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Yankees +108 (Heritage)
Marlins +109 (Heritage)
Athletics +137 (5 Dimes)
Athletics / Rangers OVER 9.5 -102 (5 Dimes)
Cubs / Brewers UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Twins / White Sox UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Reds / Cardinals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +149 (Heritage)
Indians / Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
Mariners / Angels OVER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)

lakerboy · 04-07-17, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

123

totally disagree with you

but... that is the way it is

some people make getting the best #s their 'job' and that means being up at all hours looking

Well this is his job.

jayc88 · 04-07-17, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Which means absolutely nothing.

If you are betting 5 dollars a game it makes no difference

I started my gambling "career" by simply betting every off number at sia a few years ago until they banned me after winning around 10k.
Anyone who says that beating the closer doesnt matter is absulutely clueless. You will still have downswings where you do not win over a few hundred picks but in the long run you will def win.

No coincidences · 04-07-17, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by juicername

I assume you think paying $10 or $11 for a meal makes no difference in your wallet either then?

Not if the meal gives you food poisoning either way.

No coincidences · 04-07-17, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by jayc88

If you are betting 5 dollars a game it makes no difference

I started my gambling "career" by simply betting every off number at sia a few years ago until they banned me after winning around 10k.
Anyone who says that beating the closer doesnt matter is absulutely clueless. You will still have downswings where you do not win over a few hundred picks but in the long run you will def win.

This was true 10 or even 5 years ago.

It's useless now. Completely and utterly irrelevant.

LT argues that you "lose less" when you beat the closing number. True. But you still lose if the play is a loser, which it is more often than not these days. RLM, steam and everything else is just book head fakes these days.

No coincidences · 04-07-17, 05:33 PM

I will say this, too - everything is especially irrelevant if you're trying to make 10-20 plays a day. It's suicide.

If your "model" is that far off on that many games in the first week of the year, your model is off. Just like football. Just like basketball. Just like hockey.

Slanina · 04-08-17, 02:04 AM

Solid day, LT.

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 04-08-17, 02:43 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I will say this, too - everything is especially irrelevant if you're trying to make 10-20 plays a day. It's suicide.

If your "model" is that far off on that many games in the first week of the year, your model is off. Just like football. Just like basketball. Just like hockey.

this right here. Couldn't agree more