Donk's 1st Inning

[tps8068]

I'd lay -220 everyday if I though the odds of winning a bet were 90%

[Notorious_Donk]

Guys if you are serious about this like donk and I are you'll realize that lines are just percentages. The book was basically telling us that the odds Boston scores first was around 69%. He obviously felt like the odds they score first was higher (closer to 75 or 80%, maybe higher since he wanted to add a unit) so he felt like this was a good bet. If you feel like the odds are lower than 69% Boston scores first then you don't make the bet. The juice is irrelevant if the odds are right.

That's an interesting way to look at it.

There are some plays (like yesterday) that I will bet on no matter what. I am right +90% of the time on those plays, yesterday just happened to fall in that small percentage. Live, learn, and hit the next one

[Notorious_Donk]

6/16/2017

ARI/PHI yes score -120 [1.5x]

[Notorious_Donk]

CHW/TOR no score -110

[JerseyGodFather]

Donk-- any idea what your No score record is vs. yes score record?

[Notorious_Donk]

Donk-- any idea what your No score record is vs. yes score record?

Haha no, but that would be interesting. Do the research for me

[JerseyGodFather]

Haha no, but that would be interesting. Do the research for me

I'll try and find the time!

[Notorious_Donk]

TB/DET yes score -130

[Notorious_Donk]

Mariners score first -175

[Frosty]

No juice scares the Donkey! BOL tonight brotha

[Notorious_Donk]

Yankees score first -170

[Notorious_Donk]

That's probably it for today. BOL on your wagers

[scarolinakid]

Lets get it tonight sir.
Pulling for the clean sweep

[cooperman]

to piggy back on what TPS said

some place their wagers based on implied win %
these are the breakeven win % you need compared to said ML
-200: 66.7%
-180: 64.3%
-160: 61.5%
-140: 58.3%
-120: 54.5%
+100: 50.0%
+120: 45.4%
+140: 41.7%
+160: 38.5%
+180: 35.7%
+200: 33.3%

others place their bets based on the streak. Example Donk has won on Chris Sale 11 of 12 bets going into last night(now 11 of 13) for +8 units. He will ride Sale's hot streak every time out. When you are up considerable units with a certain streak, you can afford to take some chances on some bigger lines because they have been good to you all along

Both methods can produce great profits.

Keep up the good work Donk!

[cooperman]

Yankees score first -170

Wow is that Yankees line up weak tonight. No Gregorius, Sanchez or Gardner..

[Notorious_Donk]

Wow is that Yankees line up weak tonight. No Gregorius, Sanchez or Gardner..

Yeah I missed that one... my bad

[Notorious_Donk]

6/17/2017

Brewers score first +105 [1.5x]

[Notorious_Donk]

CHW/TOR no score -110

[Notorious_Donk]

CHC/PIT no score -115

[Notorious_Donk]

SEA/TEX yes score -175

[JPTerriers8]

CHW/TOR no score -110

That's how you start the day off

[JerseyGodFather]

That's how you start the day off

Yes sir!

[2ndchance]

Prob a lot of scoring in the Indians game would not be surprised at all if there was a score in the first.

[cooperman]

Yeah I missed that one... my bad

That wasn't a slap. They scored plenty of runs. They just scored em 2nd. All those guys hit towards the bottom of the order anyway

[Notorious_Donk]

6/18/2017

Pirates score first +115

[JPTerriers8]

Glad your here. Was just about to place a bet on the KC/LAS no score but I'll see your opinion on it first

[Notorious_Donk]

MIA/ATL no score +115

[Notorious_Donk]

D-Backs score first -190

[Notorious_Donk]

I like BOS/HOU no score but my bookie doesn't have a line out yet. Stay tuned

[JPTerriers8]

I like BOS/HOU no score but my bookie doesn't have a line out yet. Stay tuned

Mine is at -105 no score

[Notorious_Donk]

Mine is at -105 no score

Interesting... two good offenses vs two good pitchers. I would take it at 105

[JPTerriers8]

Interesting... two good offenses vs two good pitchers. I would take it at 105

Ok I'm on it. You check the KC/LAA game?

[deary626]

Mines at -120

[scarolinakid]

nice 2-1 start

[Notorious_Donk]

Ok I'm on it. You check the KC/LAA game?

Yeah that game is tough for me. It's a good pitcher and a bad offense vs a bad pitcher and a decent offense. No angle imo