4/4/17
2-0, RoR +94.9%
Tigers-White Sox, First 5 Innings, Under 3.5, -101 Verlander/Quintana
A little different situation than yesterday, but nothing to change my opinion.
Like Cubs-Cards Sunday night, a premier matchup of aces, both of whom rolled through ST like they never took a break at all. Neither offense was impressive, especially the Tigers at the front end of their order.
Only a 10% chance of rain today so if they do play and get in the first 5 innings I won’t care about the balance. It is also going to be cold (about 51) with a light wind (8 mph) out to right. None of that concerns me.
I always wish I knew the home plate umpire but I don’t fear not knowing that today. In cold, rainy weather the umpire is no more inclined to work a long day than anyone else. Even a hitter friendly umpire is likely to have a little wider strike zone today and our two starters may be able to pick it to death.
Rays -104, Sabathia (14-16) /Odorizzi (21-11)
Similar to yesterday’s pick on the Twins. Odorizzi is clearly superior to the rapidly declining Sabathia, and the Rays have proven they can hit the ball. Odorizzi is not Santana, but Sabathia is no Duffy either. Only the overwhelming public love for the Yankees keeps the line down. The books expect Yankee money and may get it later. The reality and true probability are quite different.
BOL
2-0, RoR +94.9%
Tigers-White Sox, First 5 Innings, Under 3.5, -101 Verlander/Quintana
A little different situation than yesterday, but nothing to change my opinion.
Like Cubs-Cards Sunday night, a premier matchup of aces, both of whom rolled through ST like they never took a break at all. Neither offense was impressive, especially the Tigers at the front end of their order.
Only a 10% chance of rain today so if they do play and get in the first 5 innings I won’t care about the balance. It is also going to be cold (about 51) with a light wind (8 mph) out to right. None of that concerns me.
I always wish I knew the home plate umpire but I don’t fear not knowing that today. In cold, rainy weather the umpire is no more inclined to work a long day than anyone else. Even a hitter friendly umpire is likely to have a little wider strike zone today and our two starters may be able to pick it to death.
Rays -104, Sabathia (14-16) /Odorizzi (21-11)
Similar to yesterday’s pick on the Twins. Odorizzi is clearly superior to the rapidly declining Sabathia, and the Rays have proven they can hit the ball. Odorizzi is not Santana, but Sabathia is no Duffy either. Only the overwhelming public love for the Yankees keeps the line down. The books expect Yankee money and may get it later. The reality and true probability are quite different.
BOL
