Mr. Crumbs Leans for Wednesday 5/20/09

[cocknocker]

For today I have pretty good value for a couple of pitchers who are due for a correction. The Twins have been losing bythe bushel load for sure and after getting swept by the Yanks they promptly dropped the first game against the luke warm Pale Hose. This game is very winnable for the Twins and so I will take them and the crumbs. After all the Pale Hose are the worst run producing team in the AL.

Twinkies+100 Crumbs Play-O-The-Day

I am on the Verlander train until the wheels fall off. So I will be taking him again as the Rangers continue to cool off.

Detroit-1.5 +150

[cnleaf]

Everyone is talking that sh*t TEX is the JM play. Isnt that a JM? And you are taking DET now. Ok. I am confused.

[cgars1]

Tex is a B bet...CK you don't play his baseball system?

[cocknocker]

Yes but the pitching matchup is not favorable for Texas in this matchup. The appropriate play is the next game for the Rangers. And yes I do play the system.

[texhooper]

how about pirates team total over 4.5 at +120? it seemed ridiculous at those odds, but maybe for some good reason i'm not aware of. i took it already, so any voices of reason don't matter at this point.

[SlicWilly3]

Some early picks I love for tomo:

Cincy -1 1/2 +155! Harang has always been great at home consistently..... Last 3 "overall" starts has a 3.98 ERA and a 1.37 Whip. Not great, but not bad...But Moyer though... Has been throwing batting practice lately. He's got to be close to 50 yrs old now...May be time to join a softball league like myself Moyer in his last 3 starts.... a 13.87 ERA! And a 2.35 Whip......At a hitter friendly Cincy ballpark too.....Ouch.....I love Harang tomo.
Cincy (1st 5 innings) Whatever the line is.....See above
Colo/Atl UNDER 1st 5 innings Both pitchers have Whips in the 0.90's last 3 starts....
Milw/Houston UNDER 1st 5 innings Both have ERA's of 2.25 and Whips of 1.10 and 0.95 last 3 starts
Tex/Det UNDER 1st 5 innings.... Rollin with Dex on this one.... Last 3 starts for the pitchers are an unbelievable 0.78 ERA! 0.69 Whip! for Harrison... And a ERA of 1.21 and a Whip of 0.76 for Verlander

Have the Cavs at -7 1/2 as well.....at -140

Good luck everybody

[SlicWilly3]

87% on Atlanta but the Rockies went from +142 to +139...... I know it's early RLM but figured I'd share...

De La Rosa has been pitching great too.....Well both pitchers have been pitching great for that matter.
I like my chances with a number like that though....Gonna roll with it.

Colo Rockies +139

[Kav]

brewers ML -114
reds ML -125
angels RL +110
twins +105

[GoldenPig]

Yes but the pitching matchup is not favorable for Texas in this matchup. The appropriate play is the next game for the Rangers. And yes I do play the system.

Hello CK,

Long time follower and follower of the thread and forum. First time ever joining a forum and let alone contribute any thoughts and ideas for a game or pick, but I hope to be a contributor to the forum going forward and look forward to sharing thoughts and ideas with anyone else whose main goal is to outwit and outplay the Books.

Not to be too imposing and keep dwelling on the JM Tex play tomorrow, but what makes you so confident to against Tex tomorrow when the system has hit 100% on B in the last year at least according to the creator himself? I am really hung up on the play as I am afraid that the chase on this series could cramp out, which would be detrimental to movement, especially we are just out of the gate with number two.


For example today, it is always hard to gauge a game by seeing where the public is b/c the betting side in JM games are always so one-sided. Today, I really thought A was going to hit because 1). A has hit 90% in the last year according to JM 2). you had a good enough pitcher in McCarthy and a hot Tex bats who just swept the Angels to go against a washed out Dontrelle Willis who is trying to get his groove back. And what you know, Dontrelle pitches 6+ innings with 1 hit and like 5Ks, it may seem like Dontrelle got his groove back today just like Stella did back in 1998.

Verlander is a good pitcher who has been streaking lately and pitched two spectacular games, but I believe Tigers lost his last start. Matt Harrison has been a solid pitcher for Tex, and he is no chump I believe. Verlander could go streaking again tomorrow, but are you afraid the of Tigers bullpen blowing the game or Verlander may not even show up since he is probably so disappointed that he did not get a decision in the last start or he is simply due for a correction in a negative way. Bottom line, I have a difficult time going against JM percentages on B. Your further thoughts would be much appreciated. Thanks!

[Romolicious]

Hello CK,

Long time follower and follower of the thread and forum. First time ever joining a forum and let alone contribute any thoughts and ideas for a game or pick, but I hope to be a contributor to the forum going forward and look forward to sharing thoughts and ideas with anyone else whose main goal is to outwit and outplay the Books.

Not to be too imposing and keep dwelling on the JM Tex play tomorrow, but what makes you so confident to against Tex tomorrow when the system has hit 100% on B in the last year at least according to the creator himself? I am really hung up on the play as I am afraid that the chase on this series could cramp out, which would be detrimental to movement, especially we are just out of the gate with number two.


For example today, it is always hard to gauge a game by seeing where the public is b/c the betting side in JM games are always so one-sided. Today, I really thought A was going to hit because 1). A has hit 90% in the last year according to JM 2). you had a good enough pitcher in McCarthy and a hot Tex bats who just swept the Angels to go against a washed out Dontrelle Willis who is trying to get his groove back. And what you know, Dontrelle pitches 6+ innings with 1 hit and like 5Ks, it may seem like Dontrelle got his groove back today just like Stella did back in 1998.

Verlander is a good pitcher who has been streaking lately and pitched two spectacular games, but I believe Tigers lost his last start. Matt Harrison has been a solid pitcher for Tex, and he is no chump I believe. Verlander could go streaking again tomorrow, but are you afraid the of Tigers bullpen blowing the game or Verlander may not even show up since he is probably so disappointed that he did not get a decision in the last start or he is simply due for a correction in a negative way. Bottom line, I have a difficult time going against JM percentages on B. Your further thoughts would be much appreciated. Thanks!

I am a big fan of the Rangers and for some reason, the Tigers have our number at Comerica. We can't win there. I may be wrong, but I think the combination of our bad play in Det and the fact that Verlander is on the hill is why CK is playing the tigers. I for one will not play this game.

[melincrea]

Nats 2u -130 (just riding the streaks; Pitts gotta lose sometime, and Nats gotta win eventually)

Jays/Red Sox Over 10 1u +100
Jays 2u +105

Orioles/Yanks Under 11 1u +100
Orioles 1u +130

NBA:
Cle -8.5 1u
Orl/Cle Over 184.5 2u (these teams are both capable of scoring >93 pts against each other tonight)

[alukk]

Yes but the pitching matchup is not favorable for Texas in this matchup. The appropriate play is the next game for the Rangers. And yes I do play the system.

that doesnt make sense

[dchecks]

Sorry everyone kinda of new to the thread, CK love the picks, but what is the JM system?? Or where can I find it so I can read it for myself?

Thanks and good luck to all

[Jimbo42]

What up!
Slim pickings today... imo
Went light on $ on these plays:

Booked:
St. Louis -130
St. Louis -1.5 +165

Tampa Bay -1.5 +115 (TB was not a consensus -200 ysterdy..-185 at some sites...so going light on this one)

GL

[Vonnegut]

I definitely like the Twins to bounce back today. Strong lean.

[suckatmyjob]

OK people he mentioned it before CK plays i'm sure like this one account just for JM Plays, one account just for his props, and another account just for his crumbs and regular play so he can play both ..... next move on.....i think i'm right haha

[chipper13101]

Sorry everyone kinda of new to the thread, CK love the picks, but what is the JM system?? Or where can I find it so I can read it for myself?

Thanks and good luck to all

JM system.........shhhhhh. Don't mention it, don't ask about it, don't even think it.

[Tennispro]

Oke here we go 2de day i have 4 picks for today, did i just say 4 picks? Yes i did. Whoo dude your awsome.. Yea i know!!! Why am i talking to myself ? That no one knows..
Anyways todays picks are, top 2 Brewers again and Indians then the 2 i like but cant hit that hard are Tigers -1 rl and Angels -1 rl.
GL

[cocknocker]

Hello CK,

Long time follower and follower of the thread and forum. First time ever joining a forum and let alone contribute any thoughts and ideas for a game or pick, but I hope to be a contributor to the forum going forward and look forward to sharing thoughts and ideas with anyone else whose main goal is to outwit and outplay the Books.

Not to be too imposing and keep dwelling on the JM Tex play tomorrow, but what makes you so confident to against Tex tomorrow when the system has hit 100% on B in the last year at least according to the creator himself? I am really hung up on the play as I am afraid that the chase on this series could cramp out, which would be detrimental to movement, especially we are just out of the gate with number two.


For example today, it is always hard to gauge a game by seeing where the public is b/c the betting side in JM games are always so one-sided. Today, I really thought A was going to hit because 1). A has hit 90% in the last year according to JM 2). you had a good enough pitcher in McCarthy and a hot Tex bats who just swept the Angels to go against a washed out Dontrelle Willis who is trying to get his groove back. And what you know, Dontrelle pitches 6+ innings with 1 hit and like 5Ks, it may seem like Dontrelle got his groove back today just like Stella did back in 1998.

Verlander is a good pitcher who has been streaking lately and pitched two spectacular games, but I believe Tigers lost his last start. Matt Harrison has been a solid pitcher for Tex, and he is no chump I believe. Verlander could go streaking again tomorrow, but are you afraid the of Tigers bullpen blowing the game or Verlander may not even show up since he is probably so disappointed that he did not get a decision in the last start or he is simply due for a correction in a negative way. Bottom line, I have a difficult time going against JM percentages on B. Your further thoughts would be much appreciated. Thanks!

Verlander had bad luck in that game. His location is fine and his velocit is back to the old form now. That in itsself is part of the problem. The other part is that the Tigers bats are in order right now to back him. Texas came into this game streaking, but just like I fugured, they would have trouble after beating the Angels in such a high profile series. The truth is that they are in a bad spot streaking and then going on the road to take on another improving team with a hot pitcher coming off a loss.

Rangers' stadium is built to suit their style of play, and Tigers Stadium is not. I thought that they would lose this series, so that's why I am banging the Tigers again today. I will take the Rangers on Thursday when they send Millwood to the bump against Jackson. It's a day game and that will help the bats from both teams, and I feel that Texas will have just one more home run than Detroit that day! After all both teams have horrid bullpens. In other words, I think that there's a good chance that a bet "C" may be in order.

[cocknocker]

OK people he mentioned it before CK plays i'm sure like this one account just for JM Plays, one account just for his props, and another account just for his crumbs and regular play so he can play both ..... next move on.....i think i'm right haha

Bingo. I still think that the Tigers will win this game convincingly though. Ordinarily I wouldn't talk about any of the systems I use openly. But I wanted to clarify matters for the JM clan who know that I use it. This will be a tough matchup for the Rangers today

[chucksmith]

Detroit -1.5 +155
I posted after Sunday's sweep of LAA that I was not sold on TEX yet and that I would look forward to fading them, as I feel they are due a correction. This is the first spot I will try that. Out of principle, I don't like taking home teams on the RL but agree with CKs reasoning. Verlander is starting to put it back together and I feel Harrison has overachived in going deep into his last few starts. I see an early shower for him here today and DET feasting on the TEX pen, which is a man down without Francisco.

CHI CUBS +113
Lot of folks lining up at the window to back Carpenter in his first start back from the DL. He will be on a very limited pitch count and I see the Cub hitters working deep into at bats to have him out of there within 5. After that, I will take my chances with Dempster at plus money.

[SlicWilly3]

^^^^Rollin with you on the Cubs Chuck....Just got them at +110....Nice write up.

[cocknocker]

Nice pic Tennis Pro. She is hot!

[gambit718]

Hey Ck, not trying to stray away from baseball but are you playing anything for the Cavs/Magic game?

[cocknocker]

Cavs-7.5 with a 1 point buy. I didn't feel that it would be necessary to take it down to 5.5 on this one. Orlando is beat. Cleveland plays excellent defense. I see a double digit win by the Cavs. I also took the Cavs for the 1st half. if nothing else, seeing the Lakers struggle in the first half of their game, the Cavs have cause for concern.

[GoldenPig]

Bingo. I still think that the Tigers will win this game convincingly though. Ordinarily I wouldn't talk about any of the systems I use openly. But I wanted to clarify matters for the JM clan who know that I use it. This will be a tough matchup for the Rangers today

Thanks for the input. To share more information on this game. I do not pay for service plays nor do I pass them on as my own. I occasionally get access to service plays for free and interesting to know that Steve Budin has a release out from his Freehold Crew. Yesterday, he had a release from his Costa Rica Crew who were on your team CK, the Dodgers with Billingsley over Maine on the RL for +145. Final score 5-3 Dodgers. Budin only releases a pick or two a week at the most and not a volume guy. All this is documented on his website. Budin's last two to three picks in MLB have been losers, but I expect him to start winning again especially the last few picks from the Freehold Crew were losers. I am sure you know Budin. To my point, Budin's release from his Freehold Crew is on Verlander on Harrison on the RL. With you and him both on the Tigers and with majority of the public on Tex chasing B, I believe I have enough supporting reasons to like the Tigers tonight.

[peterpan19]

ck
cavs play still a heavy one ?

GL

[kmarinouofm]

i agree with CK.. i am not playing this game at all to be honest.. and I follow JM

1. i dont like the pick here .. even if it is the JM system.. CK is right the pitching matchup does not favor Texas.. Also Texas is Horrible in Detroit.. i forgot the record but its garbage something like 2 wins over the last 2 years..

2. The matchup for tomorrow seems a lot better in this case.. I actually hopping for a Detroit win today.. because then i am going to lay THE WOOD!! tomorrow on Texas..

Yes but the pitching matchup is not favorable for Texas in this matchup. The appropriate play is the next game for the Rangers. And yes I do play the system.

[ragiche]

My plays for tonight are:

Nym ML (8x) 3 game losing streak,Weaver a -130 pitcher,nah!

Nym/Lad Over 9.5 (5x) Both are hittable pitchers nuff said.

Det ML (5x) Tailing CK.

Twinkies ML (5x) Tailing CK.


NBA:

Cle -8.5 (7x) Fading the cavs opponent that goes the distance in thier last series.


BOL to all

[showtime2000]

Some BB for ya,
Kansas City ML
-Cleveland is 5-12 versus righties on the road. Carmona's road ERA is over 7. He has allowed over 4 or more runs in all road starts and leads AL in walks. Royals are 9-3 in Meches last 12 home starts.

[chucksmith]

Some BB for ya,
Kansas City ML
-Cleveland is 5-12 versus righties on the road. Carmona's road ERA is over 7. He has allowed over 4 or more runs in all road starts and leads AL in walks. Royals are 9-3 in Meches last 12 home starts.

Who ya like in pucks tonight, Show?

[SlicWilly3]

Some BB for ya,
Kansas City ML
-Cleveland is 5-12 versus righties on the road. Carmona's road ERA is over 7. He has allowed over 4 or more runs in all road starts and leads AL in walks. Royals are 9-3 in Meches last 12 home starts.

Meche's last 3 starts he has a 7.31 ERA and a Whip of 1.75
Meche's starts at HOME this year is even worse 8.40 ERA Whip 1.86

Carmona's last 3 starts he has a 4.82 ERA and a Whip of 1.39
Carmona's starts on the ROAD this yr 7.07 ERA and a Whip of 1.57

I think the OVER 9 1/2 may be a better play than taking either side....

Just my 2 cents...

[CP Thrizzle]

Who ya like in pucks tonight, Show?

No pucks tonight, chuck.

[xmrblueduckyx]

Cavs-7.5 with a 1 point buy. I didn't feel that it would be necessary to take it down to 5.5 on this one. Orlando is beat. Cleveland plays excellent defense. I see a double digit win by the Cavs. I also took the Cavs for the 1st half. if nothing else, seeing the Lakers struggle in the first half of their game, the Cavs have cause for concern.

Orlando has covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 times the two teams have met. Orlando is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games in Cleveland. The Magic lost the only game played in Cleveland this season 97-93. They won both games in Orlando this season by 11 and 29 points. Simply, Orlando matches up very well with the Cavaliers. They shoot the three-ball well and its All-Pro center, Dwight Howard, dominates the play around the basket. If he were a better foul shooter this would be a lower line by a point or possibly two.

Sorry CK, im on the other side of this one.

[JuiceTrading]

Sorry to sound like a newbie, but can someone point me to a link describing what a JM and "A,B,C" play is?