Runlines -1.5

[patsfan2727]

Is it me, or are runlines a total scam? From my experience, when a ML is too steep to play (-180 or higher) I usually go for the RL, which is typically at -110 to +120 for a big favorite. However the higher the ML, the less likely the RL seems to hit. anybody have a similar experience here?

[patsfan2727]

I'm breaking down yesterday's runlines....home favorite runlines seem to be particularly crappy...

13 games....

3 away RL's were 1-2
10 home RL's were 4-6


The largest ML home favorites (det -150, atl-187, tb -155, kc -230, sf -175)

went 2-3 on the RL

[smitch124]

Its not a scam, its just another market with it's efficiencies and inefficiencies

[Mudcat]

It's like everything else. There is a winner and a loser every time.


RL's are going better for me than everything else so far this baseball season. That is not typical for me but that has been the case so far this year.

[pavyracer]

I only play alternate run lines. When I like a dog at +120 or better I play the alt run line for +200 or better.

[Bostongambler]

I always take+1.5 or even 2.5 runs. It is hard enough to win a game let alone win one by 2.

[Bread]

I am learning to absolutely, and categorically, and systematically, and undeniably...hate baseball this year.

And that's that!

I'd like to thank Joe Nathan for doing his part to add to this evolving, yet absolute hate.

Here's to you Joe Nathan

[patsfan2727]

thanks for the input. bottom line is when you can get a home favorite at + money, it seems to good to be true, and usually is...

[BeatTheJerk]

70-80 % of all games end in two runs or more ...................... so no it's not a scam.

[LT Profits]

Also remember that is SHOULD be harder for home team to cover -1.5 because of lost at-bats in ninth inning.

[BestPlay2day]

If moneyline is high, I will make 2 separate bets to make a -1 runline so I would just push if the favorite wins by only 1 run.

[LT Profits]

Yeah I wish more books offered the -1

[Kav]

what books do offer -1?

[Enforcer_23]

what books do offer -1?

Pinnacle

[patsfan2727]

what is the juice like on a -1 bet?

[jjgold]

Check 5 Dimes for -1 lines, they might have them.

RL for the most part are sucker bets

[Kav]

nah i use 5dimes they dont got -1 lines.

[Fiasco]

you can create the -1 yourself...

[RonPaul2008]

runlines are not a scam..they are 2 sided, so if one side was really awful you could just take the other side. Only way it could be a scam is if there was a much bigger spread than moneyline or it was only one sided.

[SmartBetzdotCom]

Check out this link. It'll help you calculate the risk/reward and analyze whether or not a runline is a smarter bet than a moneyline. From my experiences, if the moneyline is too expensive and you don't predict a blowout, don't bet on that game unless it's to fill a parlay or something. At the end of the day, runlines are great for huge mismatches and it's the only way you can get priced in to bet.

[Dexter]

here are some rules/autobets ive put in place for run lines

-when i do play a favorite on the monelyline for -1.5, i will not lay any vig higher then -110 AutoBets

1) i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline.
2) i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

[d2bets]

Then bet the +1.5

[RonPaul2008]

too many rules

here are some rules/autobets ive put in place for run lines

-when i do play a favorite on the monelyline for -1.5, i will not lay any vig higher then -110 AutoBets

1) i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline.
2) i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

[Dexter]

too many rules

i know....1 whole rule and 2 systems. crazyiness!!

did i confuse you ronpaul?

[Willie Bee]

Is it me, or are runlines a total scam? From my experience, when a ML is too steep to play (-180 or higher) I usually go for the RL, which is typically at -110 to +120 for a big favorite. However the higher the ML, the less likely the RL seems to hit. anybody have a similar experience here?

No, I don't think they're a scam at all. I've been tracking some of the numbers lately because I thought I was noticing fewer 1-run games than the norm. Sure enough, the number of 1-run games sit in the 18%-24% range in recent weeks as opposed to the 30% and higher that I'm used to seeing.

It also breaks down to the few 1-run games we have seen are being won more often than not by the underdog, not the favorite, about 58%-60% of the time.

Also, there's a misconception that the higher the moneyline, the greater the frequency of the favorite covering a runline. Remember, this is still on any given night MLB baseball. Try looking at situations when the ML is in the -140 to -180 range instead of the -180 and higher mark.