Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday 5/11/09

[chucksmith]

monday-

dodgers +1.5/-130 (2x) - Autobet with the total at 7.5 or <
giants -150 - going to fade cabrera who has a whip in his last 3 of 2.20
indians - 130 - going to fade floyd who has a whip in his last 3 of 2.22

cavs -10 (3x)



*posted the below late last night to reduce my daily auto plays

AutoBet Adjustments to reduce my daily plays:

-i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline.

- i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

-i will play 3x or more against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.80 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML and the opposing pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts.

-i will play 2x or more on the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in the last 3 starts.

*so what im doing is cutting out autoplays on a guy who has a whip of 1 or < in his last 3, or against a guy with a whip of 1.80 or > in his last 3. i will still likely make plays on these games, just not autobets as it caused too many plays for my style even though im 100% behind the logic

saw you post about the dodgers last night but they dont play do they?

[Dexter]

lol...i keep doing that cause of lowe...

braves is the play...thx chuck

[chucksmith]

we are happy to have him in ATL

[Dexter]

i got some inside info folks that cleve is a really good play for tomorrow.. i suggest playing it if the pitching matchup stays the same

i know you've mentioned "inside info" plays in the past. do you have a record of how these plays have done when you posted?

i played the indians already myself, but if this hit at a high clip - i may throw down just as i do with mr heavy's big plays

[peterpan19]

david + johan....

[Dexter]

lol...machine is calling a -200 fav a "millenium lock"

what a joke....

[cocknocker]

Forgive him Dexter, for he know not what he do....

[laxdjock]

With him on it...it is like having DAC on my side......

[chucksmith]

this kind of talk is what makes you so special dan. lol

disclose your info with us...

are you thinking about going tout on us with this kinda talk?

They havent even announced a starter for CWS yet have they? Hard for me to believe it could be a lock at this point with no SP or line announced.

[Dexter]

They havent even announced a starter for CWS yet have they? Hard for me to believe it could be a lock at this point with no SP or line announced.

i think he meant the indians for tonight....

[chucksmith]

i hope so bc i am on the tribe myself

[laxdjock]

CLE is looking good thus far!

NYM needs to step it up.....just not getting it done with the bats.

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

Arizona -127 (bad spot here for Cincy)

GL

[cohen59]

Bullpen in lets go braves!!!

[Dexter]

johan out - braves score 4

[jellobiafra]

Wow. Poor guy. That's what tilt gets you. It's charma.

[ram1502]

some clutch hitting by the braves. I still don't know why diaz isn't the everyday left fielder for the braves. Garrett Anderson is terrible.

[laxdjock]

The NYM fielding is killing them.

Good call CK.

[Dexter]

[quote=Dexter;1834296]
AutoBet Adjustments to reduce my daily plays:

1) i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline.

2) i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

3) i will play 3x or more against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.80 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML and the opposing pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts.

4) i will play 2x or more on the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in the last 3 starts.


added autobet # 5:

5) i will play 2x or more on the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts

[thegenix]

Then I look up what the favored pitchers record is in the last 10 games where he is -150 or more and then I look up the dog pitchers' record in games as a +130 or more dog for the same amount of games at the number.

Where do you get this info?

[chucksmith]

some clutch hitting by the braves. I still don't know why diaz isn't the everyday left fielder for the braves. Garrett Anderson is terrible.

He kills LHP but is mediocre aganist righties and is a liability in the OF.

[chucksmith]

Where do you get this info?

www.thewinningedge.com

[jellobiafra]

Looking at games tomorrow. I'm a Braves fan and I think the world of this kid.... but I didn't even realize the kind of numbers JJ is putting up so far this season. I might be biased, is it just Braves fans that see a potential ace in the making with Jurjjens? He's only 23 I think. Gotta be the most un-talked young stud pitcher in the game. I hear about Kershaw and Sherzer and Hamels.... Nobody talks about Jurjjens. All he's done is lead the team in wins as a rookie with an ERA well under 4. And he's backing that up with a 2.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP so far this year.

Does anybody else realize how good this kid is?

[ram1502]

He kills LHP but is mediocre aganist righties and is a liability in the OF.

And Garrett Anderson isn't bro? He is too old and slow.

[chucksmith]

He has aged, yes, and he is not a particularly viable option either, but over the course of his career he has been considered one of the best defensive LFs in the game.

They make a decent platoon and are nice major league hitters for Cox to have available for pinc hit duty.

It has been years since ATL had a stud in LF

[Dexter]

win 1 cavs ticket at 9.5 from yesterday, pushed on the other (after ck heavy call today) on the other..

the cavs are winning it all - defense is so good.

[Dexter]

after a 3-9 start to the nba playoffs, im 1 game away to 500 again. (3x per game on all - so still some vig to makeup)

11-12-1

Tue

magic +2 (3x)

[laxdjock]

I really like the ORL play too.

[ASH0479]

.....

CK is the MAN!!

Nothing else needs to be said.

[ram1502]

Kotchman is swingin a helluva bat right now. One more here in the top of the 9th would be some nice icing on the cake.

[Vonnegut]

Nice calls Crumb aka ck....

[ebbearsfb1]

anyone on the nationals tonight?

[ram1502]

Wow what a goal by the Caps in overtime. I called it earlier...OT win for the Caps. Congrats all Caps backers.

[showtime2000]

Puck play tonight,

Washington +130 (dream matchup for NHL to have their 2 best players playing in a game 7)



GLA

Ah, yes, and Washington cashes the ticket!

[showtime2000]

Way to go ram1502!