Mr. Crumbs Leans for Saturday 5/9/09

Dexter · 05-09-09, 06:09 PM

AutoBets for the rest of 2009:

-i will play against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 2.00 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML

-i will play on any pitcher whos WHIP is 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts so long as the line is 150 or <

As you all can tell, im a big believer in WHIP telling the true story of whats going on with a pitcher compared to ERA which too many people focus on.

Dexter · 05-09-09, 06:11 PM

good stuff Jimbo - that will create too many bets for me though, as i like to have no more then 4 or 5 plays in a day. but for sure my runline bets going forward will focus on teams in that -170-180 range and especially when they are on the road (betting the home team on the runline essentially gives you 8 inn to work with.)

Dexter · 05-09-09, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

AutoBets for the rest of 2009:

-i will play 2x against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 2.00 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML

-i will play 2x on any pitcher whos WHIP is 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts so long as the line is 150 or <

As you all can tell, im a big believer in WHIP telling the true story of whats going on with a pitcher compared to ERA which too many people focus on.

FYI - im usually making these bets when capping a game anyway, but now will do it blindly if the criteria fits.

*one thing i always try to do early in a season is come up with home-made systems that i can use without having to cap the game. (ie, playing the cavs off a su loss this year)

jellobiafra · 05-09-09, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

yeah, but arent you getting crushed when the favorite losses outright since you are now laying the heavy moneyline? you got an example?

No. I figure out how much I want to bet on the game. Then I split the bet like I described. Let's say you wanted to put $100 on the Yankees tonight. They are -150 on the ML and +100 on the run line (at least when I booked it). If you put $60 to win $40 on the ML and then $40 to win $40 on the run line.....If the Yankees win by 1 your ML payout covers the RL wager -- push. If they win by 2 or more you win both bets at $80 on your $100. I don't bet any more money than I would have otherwise, I just get a better payout if they cruise and an insurance if they only win by 1. They lose and I lose just as much as I was going to risk anyway.

This works out better when you have a little better + odds on the run line. I don't bet teams over -140 though so I use this method if I want to play those teams. I rarely leave myself open to losing completely on a run line wager where I had the winner but they only won by 1.

Dexter · 05-09-09, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

No. I figure out how much I want to bet on the game. Then I split the bet like I described. Let's say you wanted to put $100 on the Yankees tonight. They are -150 on the ML and +100 on the run line (at least when I booked it). If you put $60 to win $40 on the ML and then $40 to win $40 on the run line.....If the Yankees win by 1 your ML payout covers the RL wager -- push. If they win by 2 or more you win both bets at $80 on your $100. I don't bet any more money than I would have otherwise, I just get a better payout if they cruise and an insurance if they only win by 1. They lose and I lose just as much as I was going to risk anyway.

This works out better when you have a little better + odds on the run line. I don't bet teams over -140 though so I use this method if I want to play those teams. I rarely leave myself open to losing completely on a run line wager where I had the winner but they only won by 1.

very sharp - i like that

Dexter · 05-09-09, 06:38 PM

joe johnson, al horford, and marvin williams all playing

Dexter · 05-09-09, 06:44 PM

Autobet for the rest of 2009:

-i will play the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 2.00 or > in the last 3 starts.

peterpan19 · 05-09-09, 06:55 PM

dexter
did you actually back tested your autobets ? or is it just an experiment ?... I think it sounds good with the Whip and so...but does it actually work ?

GL

Dexter · 05-09-09, 06:57 PM

ive changed my mind and will not limit myself to 2x on any of these autobets. when up for the week, i like to swing for the fences and may go higher in some situations, and i will actually have some bets at 1x as well

though the play of betting the dog at +1.5 when the total is 7.5 or < will always be a 2x or > play. this one i feel strongly about as it shouldnt be that frequent of a play.

Dexter · 05-09-09, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by peterpan19

dexter
did you actually back tested your autobets ? or is it just an experiment ?... I think it sounds good with the Whip and so...but does it actually work ?

GL

no, i didnt back test it - so proceed with caution if you agree with the theories as i do

maybe i'll throw a few dimes at solobass to crunch the numbers in one of his databases..lol

Dexter · 05-09-09, 07:15 PM

phil hughes is who we thought he was!

Dexter · 05-09-09, 07:23 PM

i changed my whip to 2.00 or > to create less plays

laxdjock · 05-09-09, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

phil hughes is who we thought he was!

I remember when the Yankee fans were talking about his worth compared to Pelfrey on the Mets, "Pelfrey + F. Martinez + etc". I can understand the value of Joba, but not Hughes (right now).

Yeah...how is that working out for ya?

laxdjock · 05-09-09, 07:37 PM

Hey show....any play for the late game (CHI/VAN)?

Dexter · 05-09-09, 07:39 PM

sunday-

reds (ML) 1x - volquez has a whip of .81 in his last 3
padres (ML) 1x - geer has a whip of .95 in his last 3
marlins (ML) 1x - volstad has a whip of .90 in his last 3
giants (ML) 1x - lincecum has a whip of .95 in his last 3
orioles (ML) 1x - uehara has a whip of .96 in his last 3
angels (ML) 1x - davies has a whip of 2.07 in his last 3
rays (ML) 3x - garza has a whip of .75 and beckett 2.42 in their last 3

*a few too many bets for my taste, so perhaps after a month i will change the criteria to .95 or <...we'll see.

JayRow · 05-09-09, 07:42 PM

Dexter,
What site are you using to see the pitcher's stats for the last 3?

Thanks,
JR

ebbearsfb1 · 05-09-09, 07:45 PM

figures texas scores alot of runs all the time, they rocked danks last week and now they cant score at all

shoebox · 05-09-09, 07:53 PM

0-2

Down 4+ units....

Dexter · 05-09-09, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by JayRow

Dexter,
What site are you using to see the pitcher's stats for the last 3?

Thanks,
JR

scoresandodds.com

rb4033 · 05-09-09, 08:02 PM

oh man.. st.louis destroy my parlay.. wtf!

Dexter · 05-09-09, 08:19 PM

yao ming done for the rest of the playoffs

showtime2000 · 05-09-09, 08:41 PM

Well, Washington took the lead into the 3rd but blew it. 3-3 into OT.

On to the next puck play,

Chicago +130 (Line looked fishy to begin with and now with the public all over Vancouver it looks even more fishy. Going to ride with Chicago and the value here)

GLA

laxdjock · 05-09-09, 09:07 PM

Freaking CAVS!!!!

Jimbo42 · 05-09-09, 09:21 PM

Cincy cashes!

Dexter · 05-09-09, 10:07 PM

greinke=stud

cmon kc bats

Dexter · 05-09-09, 10:08 PM

According to the Chicago Tribune, Aramis Ramirez's stint on the disabled list is likely to last about eight weeks.

laxdjock · 05-09-09, 10:16 PM

KC let me down; they` pushed me red for the day.

danrman · 05-09-09, 10:23 PM

you still like chi. show

cocknocker · 05-09-09, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by rb4033

oh man.. st.louis destroy my parlay.. wtf!

Take em tomorrow against the reds ace. they will get it back for ya!

melincrea · 05-09-09, 11:20 PM

nm

j0hnnyv · 05-10-09, 12:35 AM

mets rocked them. pirates friggin BLOWWW