Mr. Crumbs Leans for Saturday 5/9/09

[ger25pic25]

ck, why did you canceled your brewers bet?

[Chi_archie]

Maholm one of the worst hitting pitchers, tries to jump start the pirates horrid offense on his own

[Dexter]

hawks (3x) - going to wait a few more hours to hopefully get it at +10. dont wait till tipoff, as there is a good chance joe johnson might go. same for horford and williams.

[Dexter]

gusting winds at 20mph blowing out at citizens bank today with a fly ball pitcher in vazquez and joe blanton who has gotten lit up in 3 home starts to the tune of a 10.05/2.16 era/whip. line went from 10 to 9.5 under, but is back up to 9.5over and may just close back at 10.

over phillies 9.5 (3x)

the yankees should continue to get back on track with eaton on the bump today for balt.

yankees -150 (1x)

john danks (like most pitchers) has not had much success in texas. they just blasted him for 5er in 5inn a week ago - now home, the whitesox ace gets revenge.

whitesox -130 (1x)

cant pass up a spot to play greinke at -120

royals -120 (1x)

[TheLemonDropKid]

tell me about it, 3 more runs and the under is toast....fukk

Yeah.....this sucks......I was kicking myself for not placing the Pirates ML and the Under as separate bets......but now I'm glad I did it as an "if win" bet instead. Gonna lose only one instead of both.

[shoebox]

Yeah.....this sucks......I was kicking myself for not placing the Pirates ML and the Under as separate bets......but now I'm glad I did it as an "if win" bet instead. Gonna lose only one instead of both.

dammit lemon another kiss of death......lol

[jellobiafra]

gusting winds at 20mph blowing out at citizens bank today with a fly ball pitcher in vazquez and joe blanton who has gotten lit up in 3 home starts to the tune of a 10.05/2.16 era/whip. line went from 10 to 9.5 under, but is back up to 9.5over and may just close back at 10.

over phillies 9.5 (3x)

The over is getting pounded at the Greek. It was -105 when I booked it this morning and now it's -130. BTW, glad I didn't let you talk me out of that DET under last night. And you're right Verlander is most definitely back.

[Dexter]

The over is getting pounded at the Greek. It was -105 when I booked it this morning and now it's -130. BTW, glad I didn't let you talk me out of that DET under last night. And you're right Verlander is most definitely back.

nice parlay - yeah, hes in a crazy zone right now. dudes fastball was getting harder as the game went on. he knows how to pitch.

[Chi_archie]

It was a pleasure to watch the Verlander last night, guy can be sick

[laxdjock]

Freaking bsox!!

I took BOS -1.5 RRL & o9.

Come on guys!

[showtime2000]

The home team continue's to dominate in the Was/Pit series. Pittsburgh lost the best defensmen last night with a cheap shot from Ovechkin. Expect Pittsburgh to take many penalties in trying to retalate against Washington who has a great powerplay. Ovechkin has been reaaaaalllly quite these past 2 games, with not that many shots on net. This will change tonight. Fleury continues to be subpar in net on the road giving up 3 or more on many occasions.
To pricy for me to take Washington at -150 soi will opt an take them in regulation at +110

Puck play,
Washington regulation +110

GLA

[Dexter]

booked-

sat: hawks +9 (3x)

sun: celtics +5 (3x)

[Dexter]

atlanta with a big inn - time for the phillie bats to wake up. vazquez at 67 pitches thru 4 - prob got 3 more innings max...

[cohen59]

Freaking bsox!!

I took BOS -1.5 RRL & o9.

Come on guys!

We got some game left to go but im with you lets go Boston!!

[jellobiafra]

booked-

sat: hawks +9 (3x)

sun: celtics +5 (3x)

Only (3x) on that Celtics pick? Better check with the man on that one. Heavy baby!

[Dexter]

Only (3x) on that Celtics pick? Better check with the man on that one. Heavy baby!

for the entire nba playoffs ive decided to just make 1 play per day at 3x a pop.

[laxdjock]

Freaking bsox!!

I took BOS -1.5 RRL & o9.

Come on guys!

Hmm.....I'm not sure about this right now.......

[Dexter]

huge inn coming up for the phillies - 3/4/5 coming up to face vazquez for the 3rd time. they have to get to him here for a few.

[laxdjock]

Big inning for BOS coming up!

[Vreston]

I got rid of the Brewers and replaced them with the Marlins after I spotted a few more advantages in the Florida play. They are just a better team than Colorado and they are a streaky team. I sense that they are about to go on one here in Colorado. Since I think that they will win this series, then I am taking them again today HEAVY as well.

Sorry CK I didn't understand your first post.
Are you taking the Marlins HEAVY with the moneyline or the RL???
I agree they will win but where is the heavy bet?
Thanks

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

Dodgers -1.5 +140

Nice tasty crumbs!

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

Cubs +130
Cincinnati -108
Cleveland -135

[Dexter]

Autobet for the 2009 season:

i have been burnt a ton on playing run lines where the favorite has won by 1 run. ive been doing some research today and ive come up with a new approach which i think adds tremendous value while leaving the guesswork of capping the game out of the equation.

-i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or is favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline.

it seems from looking at historical lines that the books have now made adjustments on games involving a -200 favorite. in the past, the runline would have the dog at +105, +110 etc....now, you see the underdog actually laying -105,-110 on the runline when the moneyline is -200. it makes waaay too much sense to take 1.5 runs and be getting + money on the moneyline. therefore, i will not let the books affect my decison as i'll still lay up to -110 - but will obviously be getting tons of plays at +1.5/+110 etc...

thoughts?

[jellobiafra]

I'm a little confused Dex. Are you saying you will play any underdog on the dog run line (+1.5) as long as that payout is at worst -110 odds?

[Dexter]

Adjustment for the 2009 season:

i think it only makes sense for to do the following-

-when i do play a favorite on the monelyline for -1.5, i will not lay any vig higher then -110

why give the books the advantage of me having to lay -1.5 runs, and i have to pay them a vig as well? no more of that. if im laying -1.5 runs, i wanna be compensated with + money.

[Dexter]

I'm a little confused Dex. Are you saying you will play any underdog on the dog run line (+1.5) as long as that payout is at worst -110 odds?

correct - anything + money or up to -110.

[laxdjock]

I hate giving runs and being anything less than -110....I will RARELY if ever do it.

[Dexter]

AutoBet for the rest of 2009:

- i will play at least 2x on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

makes sense that games involving 2 studly pitchers will be a closely contested game.

[laxdjock]

I'm looking at the Capitals tonight....or putting more on the Fish (both ML's). I feel like the Fish are a better bet, but I tend to cap my plays at 2 units, and I'm already that on the fish. Thoughts?

[jellobiafra]

Dex, I almost always back my RL wagers up with a ML bet. I structure the bet so that the ML payout will cover the exact amount of the RL wager. That way if you win by 1 you push, but if you win by 2 you get a lot better odds than the ML itself was offering.

[Dexter]

AutoBet for the rest of 2009:

- i will play 2x on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

makes sense that games involving 2 studly pitchers will be a closely contested game.

the padres might be a play here for me tomorrow as the total has opened at 8, and sd is -150 on the run line.

same for the dodgers

[laxdjock]

Dexter....I really like your 2x dog +1.5....etc. I may try that out for a bit.

[Dexter]

Dex, I almost always back my RL wagers up with a ML bet. I structure the bet so that the ML payout will cover the exact amount of the RL wager. That way if you win by 1 you push, but if you win by 2 you get a lot better odds than the ML itself was offering.

yeah, but arent you getting crushed when the favorite losses outright since you are now laying the heavy moneyline? you got an example?

[Jimbo42]

Dex,
play any team who has a moneyline of -176 to -199 on the run line... They hit most of the time....
you'd have hit the Mets today...
Mets and Minnesota yesterday.... St. Louis on Thurs.... etc...
I won't mention this again.....


SHHHH... its a secret! LOL

[laxdjock]

The home team continue's to dominate in the Was/Pit series. Pittsburgh lost the best defensmen last night with a cheap shot from Ovechkin. Expect Pittsburgh to take many penalties in trying to retalate against Washington who has a great powerplay. Ovechkin has been reaaaaalllly quite these past 2 games, with not that many shots on net. This will change tonight. Fleury continues to be subpar in net on the road giving up 3 or more on many occasions.
To pricy for me to take Washington at -150 soi will opt an take them in regulation at +110

Puck play,
Washington regulation +110

GLA

I couldn't find this @ 5Dimes, so I took -1 +113 instead. I Can see a 4-2 or 5-2 type game.