Can someone explain the Run Line bet to me?

Rizzla · 05-06-09, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by Basten4

I am new to baseball and sports betting all together, so I would appreciate if someone could explain Run Line bet to me.
For example, todays line:
ML Run Line
Tampa Bay 2.48 +1.5 (1.74)

NY Yankees 1.63 -1.5 (2.15)

From what I understand, if NYY win a game, you are getting paid 1.63. But if NYY win a game by more then one run, you are getting 2.15.
Do I understand this correctly? If I do, what is the point to bet the Money Line when you are getting much better odds at Run Line?
And what the hell the Run Line for Tampa Bay represents?

Thanks ahead for the explanation!

Must win with 2

Tampa can loose with 2 points or win and you win your wager.

Basten4 · 05-06-09, 02:40 PM

You mean Tampa can lose by one and I win, right?

Here is another question. With ML win at 1.63 vs Run line win at 2.15, isn't the Run Line bet much better?

twister · 05-06-09, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Basten4

I am new to baseball and sports betting all together, so I would appreciate if someone could explain Run Line bet to me.
For example, todays line:
ML Run Line
Tampa Bay 2.48 +1.5 (1.74)

NY Yankees 1.63 -1.5 (2.15)

From what I understand, if NYY win a game, you are getting paid 1.63. But if NYY win a game by more then one run, you are getting 2.15.
Do I understand this correctly? If I do, what is the point to bet the Money Line when you are getting much better odds at Run Line?
And what the hell the Run Line for Tampa Bay represents?

Thanks ahead for the explanation!

-1.5 means the team has to win by 2 for you to win. +1.5 means the team has to win, or lose by 1 only for you to win.

The reason there is a point to betting ML is that approx. 20-30% of games are won/lost by 1 run. Personally, my belief is that baseball is a ML sport, and run lines should only be bet by recreational gamblers.

TodaysAction · 05-06-09, 02:41 PM

Think of the run line as "the spread" in basketball and/or football. If your selection is -1.5 runs, you need to win by 2 or more to collect. If your selection is +1.5 runs, your selection can lose straight up or by one and you will collect. Generally speaking adding to your total will result in a higher cost to win one unit (120/100) while deducting will add more than one unit (100/120). Find a way that works for you and plunge.

Rizzla · 05-06-09, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Basten4

You mean Tampa can lose by one and I win, right?

Yea, i wrote wrong, i blame the red wine

TodaysAction · 05-06-09, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Rizzla

Yea, i wrote wrong, i blame the red wine

And you're not sharing because ...

Rizzla · 05-06-09, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

And you're not sharing because ...

.. my sis is spending

And no, dont even think about it

TodaysAction · 05-06-09, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by Rizzla

.. my sis is spending

And no, dont even think about it

I'm happily married Rizzla so you have no worries. I just enjoy a good wine now and then. If you can find it, try a "raz"-"berry" (<---phonetic spelling) merlot, chill it for a day before you really want it. Stuff is smooth, flavorful and moderately priced ($19.99 per bottle but if one orders a case they can normally get anywhere from 10 to 25% off).

Crayzee · 05-06-09, 03:50 PM

if you bet money line in baseball
you only have to win the game

example-

favorite -150/
dog +140

on the favorite you risk 150 to win 100
on the dog you risk 100 to win 140

on the runline it would be something like this:

favorite-1/1/2 (runs) +125 (money)
dog +1/1/2 (runs) - 145(money)

so if you take favorite they have to win by at least 2 runs and you risk $100 to win $125

if you take the dog they have to win or lose by no more than 1 run and you risk $145 to win $100

TheLock · 05-06-09, 05:25 PM

Generally speaking, the RL is a square bet.

Find good value on favorites below -130 or play dogs.

Basten4 · 05-07-09, 01:45 PM

The reason there is a point to betting ML is that approx. 20-30% of games are won/lost by 1 run. Personally, my belief is that baseball is a ML sport, and run lines should only be bet by recreational gamblers.

I would have to disagree with that.
First of all, 20% and 30% is a huge difference.
If you are betting on the favorite, it doesn't matter if your team loses by one, but it is going to win by one 10-15% of the time. If you are getting at least a 0.3 difference on ML vs RL, that gives you a huge mathematical advantage.

Second, fairly often Handicapper Services give a RL play.

Third, I was 3-1 yesterday. I was up 2.5 units winning 3 RL bets and losing one Over. Should I have taken ML bets, I would be up about 1 Unit.
If I was 2-2 with RL bets, I would be at a 0, and 2-2 with ML bets I would have been in the (-)

Enforcer_23 · 05-07-09, 02:16 PM

RL's arent sucker or square bets.. you must be selective though ( Cardinal and Dodgers on the RL have been solid). Paying huge juice i.e. -200 is a sucker bet

twister · 05-07-09, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Basten4

I would have to disagree with that.
First of all, 20% and 30% is a huge difference.
If you are betting on the favorite, it doesn't matter if your team loses by one, but it is going to win by one 10-15% of the time. If you are getting at least a 0.3 difference on ML vs RL, that gives you a huge mathematical advantage.

Second, fairly often Handicapper Services give a RL play.

Third, I was 3-1 yesterday. I was up 2.5 units winning 3 RL bets and losing one Over. Should I have taken ML bets, I would be up about 1 Unit.
If I was 2-2 with RL bets, I would be at a 0, and 2-2 with ML bets I would have been in the (-)

I was giving an estimate, but whatever the ACTUAL percentage is, it is factored into the RL by bookies already.

Firstly, please don't base any arguments on handicapper services. The reason they are in the handicapping service is because they can barely make ends meet with their actual picks. So they sell them to suckers.

Secondly, I emplore you to come back to me after 1000 wagers placed, and tell me what your experience with RL's were. You can officially dismiss anything I have to say if you come back with more profit than you would have with betting regular ML.

Here is a little tip to set you on your way. When the away team wins, they win by 2+ 10% more often than when they home team win. Simple explaination, when the home team are in the lead they do not need to play the bottom of the 9th, leaving them with 3 less outs to score runs.

EDIT: Just had a look at my data which I started collecting on 15th Apr. Of the 300 odd games between 04/15-05/06, there were 80 which finished by 1 run. That is ~26.5%.

Rich Boy · 05-07-09, 04:53 PM

Here are the golden rules to betting RL's...

1) Never take home -1.5
2) Always take Road -1.5