MLB - Friday, 8/19/16

[LT Profits]

6 MLB Plays Friday

Phillies +160 (5 Dimes)
Astros +108 (5 Dimes)
Rangers / Rays UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Athletics +101 (5 Dimes)
Athletics / White Sox OVER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
Cubs / Rockies UNDER 11 -115 (Heritage)


YTD: 350-364-19, -6.36

[McCarthyFam]

rangers/rays under 7.5

[FlyinAir]

Keep falling LT

[TxAaron]

You don't like Hamels? I'm going big on the Rangers today.

[McCarthyFam]

You don't like Hamels? I'm going big on the Rangers today.

I don't believe he pays over .30 cents

[LT Profits]

rangers/rays under 7.5

Thanks, fixed. Must have had A's on my brain because of my two plays in their game.

[LT Profits]

You don't like Hamels? I'm going big on the Rangers today.

I don't believe he pays over .30 cents

Besides me never laying more than -130, real line is close to model line of 58% (-138)

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 65% (-186)
Dodgers 60% (-150)
Yankees 60% (-150)
Arizona 62% (-163)

Note that GIANTS are certainly a 60%er, but Mets made a very late pitching change literally overnight and I have not added the first-time starter Lugo to the model yet.

[innovation]

crooked winner in det/bos

[44 Mag]

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 65% (-186)
Dodgers 60% (-150)
Yankees 60% (-150)
Arizona 62% (-163)

Note that GIANTS are certainly a 60%er, but Mets made a very late pitching change literally overnight and I have not added the first-time starter Lugo to the model yet.

How are the Cubs not at 60%????

[LT Profits]

How are the Cubs not at 60%????

ROCKIES are on my radar, Cubs only 55% (-122).

Tyler Anderson is good and has proven he can handle pitching in the altitude.

[44 Mag]

ROCKIES are on my radar, Cubs only 55% (-122).

Tyler Anderson is good and has proven he can handle pitching in the altitude.

Ok, thanks, and GL with that.

[HeeluvaGuy]

LT - Picking up from some of yesterday's banter, if you're losing on the plays where you're beating the closing line by $.30, why not scalp those plays?

[LT Profits]

LT - Picking up from some of yesterday's banter, if you're losing on the plays where you're beating the closing line by $.30, why not scalp those plays?

Not worth scalping unless line moves so much that other side has value. I am one to let it ride when in a +EV position.

[Rich Boy]

Not worth scalping unless line moves so much that other side has value. I am one to let it ride when in a +EV position.

Yes it is smart since you will decrease your edge by paying juice on both sides instead of letting the +EV side ride but you open yourself to extreme variance like you have seen all season long. That can be extremely deflating...

I have thought long and hard about doing this myself but the fact is arbing is very boring and I prefer the action

[HeeluvaGuy]

Not worth scalping unless line moves so much that other side has value. I am one to let it ride when in a +EV position.

Maybe I misunderstood. I thought you were down units on these plays over the past two seasons. By scalping on a 30-cent move I thought you could benefit from not incurring the loss and picking up a bit of profit in those situations.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Maybe I misunderstood. I thought you were down units on these plays over the past two seasons. By scalping on a 30-cent move I thought you could benefit from not incurring the loss and picking up a bit of profit in those situations.

you're assuming all 30 cent moves are losers though.

[LT Profits]

Maybe I misunderstood. I thought you were down units on these plays over the past two seasons. By scalping on a 30-cent move I thought you could benefit from not incurring the loss and picking up a bit of profit in those situations.

I know what you are saying but AT THE TIME I thought I had a +EV position, just like I will continue to believe so the next time I crush a line by that much. The losing record on those plays could be due to variance given the small sample size compared to plays where I beat the closer by lesser amounts.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

7 MLB Plays Friday

Phillies +160 (5 Dimes)
Astros +108 (5 Dimes)
Rangers / Rays UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Athletics +101 (5 Dimes)
Athletics / White Sox OVER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
Twins +126 (Heritage)
Cubs / Rockies UNDER 11 -115 (Heritage)

[actiondan]

LT silences the unbelievers today

[funnyb25]

Berrios? What do we see in this guy?

[funnyb25]

Isn't Berrios the same guy who burried ur under last outing?

[LT Profits]

Berrios? What do we see in this guy?

More of a play against Volquez. And at least there is a ray of hope with Berriors given his 30 strikeouts in 28 innings. On filpside the 14 walks are concerning, but at least Volquez has a larger sampling of shittiness. Call it a coin flip (Model has Royals 51% -104), so +126 is good.

[FlyinAir]

[LT Profits]

Isn't Berrios the same guy who burried ur under last outing?

No he burned my TWINS bet.

[funnyb25]

No he burned my TWINS bet.

Lol...round 2 or 3 with him should be a charm

[44 Mag]

Isn't Berrios the same guy who burried ur under last outing?

Date	Opp	Result	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HBP	HR	BFP	Pitches	GB	FB	ERA
4/27	Cle	L5-6	4.0	6	5	5	2	5	1		20	93	4	2	11.25
Apr. Totals			4.0	6	5	5	2	5	1		20	93	4	2	9.64

Date	Opp	Result	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HBP	HR	BFP	Pitches	GB	FB	ERA
5/2	@Hou	W6-2	5.1	3	2	2	5	8		2	23	96	5	4	6.75
5/10	Bal	L3-5	5.0	8	3	3	1	6		2	23	93	3	9	6.28
5/16	@Det	L8-10	0.2	3	7	7	4	1		1	9	39	2	2	10.20
May Totals			11.0	14	12	12	10	15		5	55	228	10	15	9.26

Date	Opp	Result	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HBP	HR	BFP	Pitches	GB	FB	ERA
8/1	@Cle	W12-5	6.0	5	3	3		5	1		24	99	6	4	8.57
8/6	@TB	L3-7	5.0	6	4	4	1	4		2	21	97	3	9	8.31
8/11	Hou	L7-15	2.0	8	6	5	1	1			15	43	4	4	9.32
Aug. Totals			13.0	19	13	12	2	10	1	2	60	239	13	17	7.90

Unfortunately there are no xFIP numbers here for Berrios, but you get the hint. By the way, in games he has been involved in, it equates to 14. + RPG. Might want to look at the over???

[funnyb25]

Date	Opp	Result	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HBP	HR	BFP	Pitches	GB	FB	ERA
4/27	Cle	L5-6	4.0	6	5	5	2	5	1		20	93	4	2	11.25
Apr. Totals			4.0	6	5	5	2	5	1		20	93	4	2	9.64

Date	Opp	Result	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HBP	HR	BFP	Pitches	GB	FB	ERA
5/2	@Hou	W6-2	5.1	3	2	2	5	8		2	23	96	5	4	6.75
5/10	Bal	L3-5	5.0	8	3	3	1	6		2	23	93	3	9	6.28
5/16	@Det	L8-10	0.2	3	7	7	4	1		1	9	39	2	2	10.20
May Totals			11.0	14	12	12	10	15		5	55	228	10	15	9.26

Date	Opp	Result	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HBP	HR	BFP	Pitches	GB	FB	ERA
8/1	@Cle	W12-5	6.0	5	3	3		5	1		24	99	6	4	8.57
8/6	@TB	L3-7	5.0	6	4	4	1	4		2	21	97	3	9	8.31
8/11	Hou	L7-15	2.0	8	6	5	1	1			15	43	4	4	9.32
Aug. Totals			13.0	19	13	12	2	10	1	2	60	239	13	17	7.90

Unfortunately there are no xFIP numbers here for Berrios, but you get the hint. By the way, in games he has been involved in, it equates to 14. + RPG. Might want to look at the over???

Worst pitcher in baseball...LT already answered though..it's a blind dart play

[44 Mag]

Worst pitcher in baseball...LT already answered though..it's a blind dart play

These numbers were for you, to help you decide to take the over tonight. I never try to persuade LT, he knows what he is doing, but if he thinks Volquez is that bad, and this guys numbers indicate he is terrible right now, why not take advantage and go over, that's all.

[JJJ]

Guy loves berries and Mchugh

[funnyb25]

Notice he hasn't played Nola once since we battered it into him. However he still does play his homer Phillies often..

[44 Mag]

Notice he hasn't played Nola once since we battered it into him. However he still does play his homer Phillies often..

Nola is done for the season, and has been for a while. But we will see him next year, LOL.

[funnyb25]

Nola is done for the season, and has been for a while. But we will see him next year, LOL.

Nola had at least 3 more starts since the burial...we will see him next year though for sure...2015 model for 2017 Nola. Excited!

[unusialsusp5]

You don't like Hamels? I'm going big on the Rangers today.

hamels who has given up 24 hits and 8 walks in his last 20 innings vs. andriese who despite getting hit hard in his last (0 bb 8k's however) has several good outings at home. i think you may be in trouble playing this one. we'll soon see.

[CanuckG]

Twins will battle today