MLB - Wednesday, 8/3/16

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Brewers / Padres UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Giants / Phillies UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Orioles -106 (Heritage)
Rangers / Orioles UNDER 8.5 -104 (5 Dimes)
Rays -127 (Heritage)


YTD: 312-334-14, -14.28

[Chi_archie]

Get em

[jjgold]

unders tough right now

Pitchers arms are mainly dead

[jontebond]

Is the under play because it's get away day today?

[LT Profits]

Is the under play because it's get away day today?

No, because model likes those Unders. Although Getaway Days are a nice bonus.

[mikefan1034]

Will u stop about the model it doesn't work

[mikefan1034]

No, because model likes those Unders. Although Getaway Days are a nice bonus.

U praise this model enough man sick of it

[7777KaL]

U praise this model enough man sick of it

FINALLY..Its about time someone gets tired of this piece of shit clown and his "model". I got tired of it by the fourth day MLB started again. This guy is a joke. At the beginning of the week he was +.50 and three days into it he is already -14.28, everyone should fade this clown once and for all..

[eddycash]

any thoughts on cubs under?

[innovation]

Padres and crooked

[LT Profits]

any thoughts on cubs under?

Model has weather-neutral 7.9

[Brooklyn Dick]

60% please LT.

[LT Profits]

U praise this model enough man sick of it

I just commented yesterday how model is beating closing numbers at about same rate as it did last year, the results have just not been the same. But as long as model maintains that BTCL rate, there is nothing wrong with it and I should finish in the black.

As an example, when I went 2-9 on Sunday, I beat the closer in 10 of the 11 games! That is just terrible luck that will not continue over the long term. You simply do not go from +93 units one year to -14 the next year while maintaining a similar BTCL rate, so that is an encouraging sign for a strong August. Then my volume will go down considerably in September, so I have to make up the 14 units in this month and the playoffs.

[LT Profits]

60% please LT.

Shit, got tied up and totally forgot. One sec.

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Cubs 67% (-203)
Washington 75% (-300)
San Francisco 63% (-170)
Cleveland 62% (-163)
Pittsburgh 61% (-156)
Tampa Bay 60% (-150)

No, that is not a typo with Tampa Bay!

[jeffjam_]

I just commented yesterday how model is beating closing numbers at about same rate as it did last year, the results have just not been the same. But as long as model maintains that BTCL rate, there is nothing wrong with it and I should finish in the black.

As an example, when I went 2-9 on Sunday, I beat the closer in 10 of the 11 games! That is just terrible luck that will not continue over the long term. You simply do not go from +93 units one year to -14 the next year while maintaining a similar BTCL rate, so that is an encouraging sign for a strong August. Then my volume will go down considerably in September, so I have to make up the 14 units in this month and the playoffs.

I wish you could support the BTCL rate by keeping the record of it not just +/- units. Just look at it this way. Units are you ERA while BTCL is your FIP/xFIP whatever you like better.

[JJJ]

nobody cares about closing lines just pick winners forget all the other bulls###

I just commented yesterday how model is beating closing numbers at about same rate as it did last year, the results have just not been the same. But as long as model maintains that BTCL rate, there is nothing wrong with it and I should finish in the black.

As an example, when I went 2-9 on Sunday, I beat the closer in 10 of the 11 games! That is just terrible luck that will not continue over the long term. You simply do not go from +93 units one year to -14 the next year while maintaining a similar BTCL rate, so that is an encouraging sign for a strong August. Then my volume will go down considerably in September, so I have to make up the 14 units in this month and the playoffs.

[LT Profits]

nobody cares about closing lines just pick winners forget all the other bulls###

The two go hand in hand.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Wednesday

Brewers / Padres UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Giants / Phillies UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Orioles -106 (Heritage)
Rangers / Orioles UNDER 8.5 -104 (5 Dimes)
Cardinals / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Bookmaker)
Rays -127 (Heritage)

[JJJ]

obviously not your down 14 units

The two go hand in hand.

[Brooklyn Dick]

obviously not your down 14 units

Do you have any bookmakers that will let you bet off the opening line at post time? Give us a name if you do.

[Rich Boy]

Better to start scalping to guarantee some profits LT, you are cursed my friend...

[LT Profits]

obviously not your down 14 units

Means nothing, stop being short-sighted

[LT Profits]

Better to start scalping to guarantee some profits LT, you are cursed my friend...

I hear you but I am one that lets it ride when I am in a +EV position. Should be more profitable in the long run.

[BaseballChaser]

I haven't been keeping close track on LT's plays, but beating closing lines is definitely a sign your doing things right... There's a lot of variance in sports betting. It's like in poker if you get your hand in good, but lose. You didn't make the wrong play.

[funnyb25]

Over getting hit hard in brewers

[mohye1980]

Man this system/software need an upgrade. You need to go into your local best buy and buy the 2016 edition. Good luck. You'll be needing it.

[Rich Boy]

I hear you but I am one that lets it ride when I am in a +EV position. Should be more profitable in the long run.

True in theory but we are humans, not robots.. You could have a 10% edge on every line you get but if you lose at this rate its not easy to swallow.

[Rich Boy]

I haven't been keeping close track on LT's plays, but beating closing lines is definitely a sign your doing things right... There's a lot of variance in sports betting. It's like in poker if you get your hand in good, but lose. You didn't make the wrong play.

Yep, just exceptionally bad luck. And I do mean exceptional.
So many bad beats and hardly any lucky wins

[HeeluvaGuy]

Besides the under ump, what's the theory on the STL/CIN under?

[funnyb25]

How many losing days in a row now? Has it been that bad of a run or was it just that 2-7 day?

[funnyb25]

I remember in nba last season he racked off like 20 losing unders in a row then tweaked model and games started staying under after that

[ufcfan2016]

60%ers:

Cubs 67% (-203)
Washington 75% (-300)
San Francisco 63% (-170)
Cleveland 62% (-163)
Pittsburgh 61% (-156)
Tampa Bay 60% (-150)

No, that is not a typo with Tampa Bay!

THAT TAMPA BAYS LOOKS OFF

[ufcfan2016]

-14.28 UNITS........lol who going to follow that after 600+ bets

[LT Profits]

How many losing days in a row now? Has it been that bad of a run or was it just that 2-7 day?

2-9 on Sunday, 0-3 yesterday. Other than that mainly treading water since 5-1 Friday.