MLB - Thursday, 7/7/16

[JJJ]

L t your picks are losers bottom line...congrats though on beating the closing line

[No coincidences]

I pointed out a few days ago that it instinctively seems to me that I am beating the closing line at about the same rate I did last year, which if true actually proves that the model is not broken. Beating closer is probably the most important dynamic when judging a model's success (or lack of).

Sincerely,
2008

[No coincidences]

LT's model is + imo, I do think that it is important to stay at the vanguard of all the new analytics being offered though and not sit back and rest on one's laurels. The bad luck this year does not eliminate the possibility that there was some good luck last year (one of the best single season mlb's I have seen at great volume). I also think that sports have many intangibles that are not perfectly clean and should be taken into account after the model gives you a baseline for the game. Obviously with MLB, the volume of games and teams makes it a very difficult grind to account for all the ebbs and flows going on on every particular team on a daily basis.

That being said I have 1000 betpoints up at even money that LT finishes the season in the black, any takers?

As always BOL LT, enjoy your work and your humility.

You need to watch the games, too. Period.

[RavensFan2k3]

Good point...the players are broken

[funnyb25]

You need to watch the games, too. Period.

It's almost like he refuses to watch games to get better. It's strange

[LT Profits]

Sincerely,
2008

The arguments we had last year centered around games where I absolutely CRUSHED the closing line where you pointed out those plays had a losing record. And they may very well may have.

But that is not what I am talking about here, I am saying it is important to beat the closing line a high percentage of the time overall, without regard to by how much you beat it by. If you only look at games last year where I beat the closing lines by "normal" amounts and eliminate the games where I beat closer by 40 points +, I was probably over +100 units.

[LT Profits]

I'll maintain you are better off NOT watching the games so you have no biases. I know it is hard for me to resist being a bit bias in football and basketball based on what I see on TV.

[44 Mag]

I'll maintain you are better off NOT watching the games so you have no biases. I know it is hard for me to resist being a bit bias in football and basketball based on what I see on TV.

I agree 100%. I do not watch these games, I would go nuts. LOL. I must admit, I do watch some NFL games, having the package, but it casts no bias on games I already took. MLB & NBA, way too many games.

[funnyb25]

I'll maintain you are better off NOT watching the games so you have no biases. I know it is hard for me to resist being a bit bias in football and basketball based on what I see on TV.

Is this why college football and basketball were down 50 units last season?

[Redscot]

I'll maintain you are better off NOT watching the games so you have no biases. I know it is hard for me to resist being a bit bias in football and basketball based on what I see on TV.

I can agree to a degree. It is information overload! However, when you have your pulse on a team I think it does make a difference. Early in the year I watched the dynamic of Gio Gonzalez being force-fed Ramos instead of his caddy Lobaton and made some money there (just one example) there is NO model that is gonna pick that up. ML teams still employ scouts who are not analytic slaves because it just ain't that simple as a math equation. Don't get me wrong, I am as old school as it gets, and have been intimate with the game on many levels and have adapted to a more analytic based approach to the game myself. It is probably too much for one individual to try and stay on the pulse of every team, so a model is the best bet, but you would have to be a fool to not know that it has its benefits.

[Redscot]

Oh and...

That being said I have 1000 betpoints up at even money that LT finishes the season in the black, any takers?

**cricket** **cricket**

[JJJ]

lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?

Is this why college football and basketball were down 50 units last season?

[LT Profits]

lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?

No, was -50 combined this year in college only. Won in NBA and NHL, basically broke even in NFL (-0.95). Bottom line was +63 units over all sports over last completed seasons, so entered today +52 since start if last MLB season when you deduct the -11 YTD MLB.

[funnyb25]

lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?

No. College football and college hoops were down 50 units combined. Not each.

[HeeluvaGuy]

lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?

Did someone say 1994?

https://youtu.be/6KvLZ3gdBhw

[Pigpen]

Oh and...

That being said I have 1000 betpoints up at even money that LT finishes the season in the black, any takers?

**cricket** **cricket**

How can you transfer 1000 points if you lose the bet?

[LT Profits]

lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?

Um.....WHAT?

[funnyb25]

How can you transfer 1000 points if you lose the bet?

2 a day for 500 days...lock

[funnyb25]

How would you rate your 6 sports successes from best worst long term?

[Redscot]

2 a day for 500 days...lock

hahah good point, but I am good for it.

[LT Profits]

How would you rate your 6 sports successes from best worst long term?

Good question that I do not have an answer to because it seems winning sports have rotated year-to-year lately. Although MLB has to be #1 after last year, 93 units would make up for at least three losing MLB seasons.

Ah the old glory days when I started my SBR career with something like 17 straight winning seasons (about three calendar years) before my first losing year, which I think was in MLB.

[RavensFan2k3]

I'm worried about my Twins bet

[mohye1980]

Lost profits- it's time for you to update the software in your model. Get that shit up to speed with 2016. This "system" is fukking broke man. Do something.

[JayDr3am]

I'm worried about my Twins bet

twins should cash.. gonzalez will let up atleast 5 or 6 runs

[No coincidences]

I can agree to a degree. It is information overload! However, when you have your pulse on a team I think it does make a difference. Early in the year I watched the dynamic of Gio Gonzalez being force-fed Ramos instead of his caddy Lobaton and made some money there (just one example) there is NO model that is gonna pick that up. ML teams still employ scouts who are not analytic slaves because it just ain't that simple as a math equation. Don't get me wrong, I am as old school as it gets, and have been intimate with the game on many levels and have adapted to a more analytic based approach to the game myself. It is probably too much for one individual to try and stay on the pulse of every team, so a model is the best bet, but you would have to be a fool to not know that it has its benefits.

This x 100000

[t-wizzle]

Sincerely,
2008

This guy still trying to argue that getting good numbers isn't important? Lol.

[funnyb25]

Model land has gone from bad to worse...yikes!

[jtoler]

Lol at the juicer Colon.

[LT Profits]

Model land has gone from bad to worse...yikes!

Whatchya mean? Ahead in all three games right now, although tenuously so.

[funnyb25]

If nova goes 5 we win. Instead they force him into the 6th and gives up 2. Terrible

[The Giant]

Whatchya mean? Ahead in all three games right now, although tenuously so.

Does your moderator status come with the ability to ban people?

[BaseballChaser]

Gets quiet when he wins.

Keep grinding away LT.

[funnyb25]

Great job today LT

YTD: 251-268-13, -9.76

[blackeyeshamus]

Gets quiet when he wins.

Keep grinding away LT.

This. Cheers. 🍀💎🎯😇💵

[RavensFan2k3]

twins should cash.. gonzalez will let up atleast 5 or 6 runs

This was great, really needed that