MLB - Thursday, 7/7/16

44 Mag · 07-07-16, 07:25 AM

I guess: Cleveland & the Cubs. That should be it for %'s.

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

I guess: Cleveland & the Cubs. That should be it for %'s.

Obviously NOT Cleveland.

44 Mag · 07-07-16, 07:28 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Obviously NOT Cleveland.

Well then, in all practicality, it really should be no one. But I know you will pop out the Cubs. Besides, I thought the Cleveland pitcher weighed heavily in your model ???? Or is just your opinion ???

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 07:29 AM

60%ers:

Cubs 76% (-317)
Colorado 64% (-178)

44 Mag · 07-07-16, 07:32 AM

[QUOTE=LT Profits;25972786]60%ers:

Cubs 76% (-317)
Colorado 64% (-178)[/QUOTE]

I was half right .LOL Colorado????? vs. that red hot Philly team. Oh, I know your boy LOLA is being skipped. LOL.

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Well then, in all practicality, it really should be no one. But I know you will pop out the Cubs. Besides, I thought the Cleveland pitcher weighed heavily in your model ???? Or is just your opinion ???

I said "obviously" because I played Yankees +156. Yes, starters is the most important component but model only has Nova going 5 innings and Yanks bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Shake everything up and model spit out Cleveland 58% (-138).

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 07:37 AM

[QUOTE=44 Mag;25972792]

Originally posted by LT Profits

60%ers:

Cubs 76% (-317)
Colorado 64% (-178)[/QUOTE]

I was half right .LOL Colorado????? vs. that red hot Philly team. Oh, I know your boy LOLA is being skipped. LOL.

More importantly, Morgan is awful and Bettis is actually pretty good. Not Jon Gray good but good enough for a Colorado pitcher.

44 Mag · 07-07-16, 07:57 AM

[QUOTE=LT Profits;25972806]

Originally posted by 44 Mag

More importantly, Morgan is awful and Bettis is actually pretty good. Not Jon Gray good but good enough for a Colorado pitcher.

Well, if you hit all your plays today you will be more than 1/2 way to being in the black. I don't know how you put up with all the harassment??? You would think you were taking their wallets and their puppies LOL. GL today.

Jayvegas420 · 07-07-16, 08:34 AM

LT has thick skin & to be honest I dont think he gives a shit what the trolls think or say.

I like the Rays & A's as well.

GL today LT

44 Mag · 07-07-16, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

LT has thick skin & to be honest I dont think he gives a shit what the trolls think or say.

I like the Rays & A's as well.

GL today LT

[ATTACH]90644[/ATTACH]

Snake24 · 07-07-16, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

5 MLB Plays Thursday

Rays -115 (Heritage)
Pirates +143 (Heritage)
Yankees +156 (Heritage)
Twins +110 (5 Dimes)
Athletics +116 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 248-266-13, -11.43

I like when you play day games which isn't often. You're pretty good. GL, buddy.

RavensFan2k3 · 07-07-16, 09:31 AM

We trust Tyler Duffey?

CanuckG · 07-07-16, 09:35 AM

Rays....I don't know about that one.

44 Mag · 07-07-16, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

We trust Tyler Duffey?

Last time out he was an ace. retired 17 in a row, 2 hits.

RavensFan2k3 · 07-07-16, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Last time out he was an ace. retired 17 in a row, 2 hits.

Last time out he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits to this same Rangers team. I do like him today though

funnyb25 · 07-07-16, 09:56 AM

Nola being skipped is excellent..

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Last time out he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits to this same Rangers team. I do like him today though

Only reason he allowed 4 runs was he had a 17-2 lead.

Didn't want to walk anybody and grooved some pitches. And remember Chi Chi sucks.

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Nola being skipped is excellent..

Probably a good thing, his first start after the break should be key.

mikefan1034 · 07-07-16, 02:36 PM

Nice Tampa pick lol worst team in the al

JJJ · 07-07-16, 02:50 PM

0-2 to start the day keep up the great work LT

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by JJJ

0-2 to start the day keep up the great work LT

Pirates were not a 5-inning play.

funnyb25 · 07-07-16, 03:04 PM

Lol....Guy refuses to believe his system is flawed...I feel bad

funnyb25 · 07-07-16, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Pirates were not a 5-inning play.

Come on man...you're better than this...

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Lol....Guy refuses to believe his system is flawed...I feel bad

I pointed out a few days ago that it instinctively seems to me that I am beating the closing line at about the same rate I did last year, which if true actually proves that the model is not broken. Beating closer is probably the most important dynamic when judging a model's success (or lack of).

funnyb25 · 07-07-16, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I pointed out a few days ago that it instinctively seems to me that I am beating the closing line at about the same rate I did last year, which if true actually proves that the model is not broken. Beating closer is probably the most important dynamic when judging a model's success (or lack of).

Good point...the players are broken

mikefan1034 · 07-07-16, 03:31 PM

I might no make another play in the contest just let this klown bury himself with his broken system
Lol

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by mikefan1034

I might no make another play in the contest just let this klown bury himself with his broken system
Lol

I already posted a challenge in the contest thread giving Even money that I will finish in the black this season. Feel free to place your bet there.

gpet1984 · 07-07-16, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I already posted a challenge in the contest thread giving Even money that I will finish in the black this season. Feel free to place your bet there.

I don't don't even know why you waste your breathe on these people LT. Everybody is your biggest fan when your winning but when your down everyone else is a genius. Wish you can just ban these guys they just wasting space in the threads

gamblingisfun · 07-07-16, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I pointed out a few days ago that it instinctively seems to me that I am beating the closing line at about the same rate I did last year, which if true actually proves that the model is not broken. Beating closer is probably the most important dynamic when judging a model's success (or lack of).

Do you think it's just very crappy luck so far that mostly beating the lines hasn't resulted in success? (which it normally does) And hopefully by the end of the season everything will work itself out and that this is just extreme variance for an otherwise good model. Or possibly are the books setting lines better/catching up with models that are ahead of the curve as far as finding value/projecting what is going to happen?

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

Good point...the players are broken

That's a quirky way of putting it but yeah!

I can't control what happens once the games start, but when you beat the closing line in a major sport a high percentage of the time, you should be fine in the long run. In other words, it seems I am doing my job OK but the results have not been there. Heck, the Pirates ended up being scalpable, I got +143 and Cardinals closed -135! Shit happens.

gpet1984 · 07-07-16, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by gamblingisfun

Do you think it's just very crappy luck so far that mostly beating the lines hasn't resulted in success? (which it normally does) And hopefully by the end of the season everything will work itself out and that this is just extreme variance for an otherwise good model. Or possibly are the books setting lines better/catching up with models that are ahead of the curve as far as finding value/projecting what is going to happen?

I dont think anyone is smart enough to be able to pull this off. Thats a lot of variables for books to have to account for to one up every full time bettor. It's bad luck 100% but that's gambling nothing is a guarantee

LT Profits · 07-07-16, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by gamblingisfun

Do you think it's just very crappy luck so far that mostly beating the lines hasn't resulted in success? (which it normally does) And hopefully by the end of the season everything will work itself out and that this is just extreme variance for an otherwise good model. Or possibly are the books setting lines better/catching up with models that are ahead of the curve as far as finding value/projecting what is going to happen?

The argument against that is the line movement after my plays are in. Have they moved less that last year? That I don't know. But as long as there is some movement in modelers' favor, book were still off by at least a little bit.

juicername · 07-07-16, 03:52 PM

Start surebetting whenever you beat the closing line by enough so you don't have to deal with the mofos not performing like they should

.

Redscot · 07-07-16, 03:56 PM

LT's model is + imo, I do think that it is important to stay at the vanguard of all the new analytics being offered though and not sit back and rest on one's laurels. The bad luck this year does not eliminate the possibility that there was some good luck last year (one of the best single season mlb's I have seen at great volume). I also think that sports have many intangibles that are not perfectly clean and should be taken into account after the model gives you a baseline for the game. Obviously with MLB, the volume of games and teams makes it a very difficult grind to account for all the ebbs and flows going on on every particular team on a daily basis.

That being said I have 1000 betpoints up at even money that LT finishes the season in the black, any takers?

As always BOL LT, enjoy your work and your humility.