MLB - Saturday, 7/2/16

[funnyb25]

Sure, but only four teams have struck out less than the Royals. More balls in play = more opportunities for Philly defense to eff up

Just stop man...you're not going to talk him out of his love for Nola. We have all tried..

[juicername]

Damn, Twins having their way with the Rangers.

[JJJ]

nice hit with the twins LT....I love when this guy wins nobody says shit but the second he loses we bitch and complain....keep it going LT

[funnyb25]

nice hit with the twins LT....I love when this guy wins nobody says shit but the second he loses we bitch and complain....keep it going LT

It was a nice hit...Nola sucks though...

[funnyb25]

5-1 Royals...2nd inning

[Waterstpub87]

Aaron Nola is terrible.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Yes Nola is garbage. I fell for the under as well but i'm done with Nola

[jay89]

Tigers o2 ff -129
Padres o2 ff +105
Nats o2.5 ff -113
Royals o4 +106

good luck buddy

royals over 4 cashes in the 2nd inning

[funnyb25]

Hopefully this is the one that gets LT off this clown...

[turtlejc]

Nola not gonna make it past the 4th inning at this rate

sometimes LT is a bit stubborn and this is one of those times he should have listened to all of you

[funnyb25]

Nola not gonna make it past the 4th inning at this rate

sometimes LT is a bit stubborn and this is one of those times he should have listened to all of you

Been saying that for weeks, but getting ridiculed for it...it is what is it...

[44 Mag]

Believe it or not, there is nothing wrong with Nola's velocity, it has been the same his last four starts as it has been all year. The problem is his sinker has been finding too much of the plate those last four starts, compared to getting a lot of called strikes while living on the corners before that. So it is not a physical issue. Here is a great read:

The Change: What's Going On With Aaron Nola?

And yes, Duffy grades out as the Kansas City ace at the current time.

20 runs in 12 IP vs AL sorry LT with all do respect i can't go under

i would be more disturbed about the 32 hits in his last 13 innings. sure, he keeps his walks down but give me a bat so i can fatten my batting average must be the theme being sung in opposing dugouts.

That is meaningless because he allowed 16 runs in 6 innings vs. AL during current 4-game funk. Before he went bad, he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings vs. a great hitting Detroit team.

So league faced is not the issue, if he corrected his mechanics between starts and returns to form before last four starts, he should be fine. If not, AL or NL would not matter when sinker is right down the middle.

So you're telling me that 4-0 over in the last 4 interleague starts is meaningless

The guy would have gotten bombed no matter who he played. He could have pitched against his own team and got shelled.

I am saying it is correctable. His velocity has not changed one bit, it is the location of his sinker that has been six inches off the corner (around middle of plate) his last four after he had been very precise before that for his whole professional career (including minors).

I should add that Nola's overall numbers are still good despite the last four disasters, which is the whole point of the play. He still has a 3.16 FIP, 2.99 xFIP and 2.1 WAR, his great first 12 starts still outweigh the last 4. It is pretty amazing that he is still fifth in the Major Leagues in xFIP right now.

I am not saying he is a stud, but Duffey still grades out a lot better than Gonzalez. Model always likes guys with great K/BB ratios and Duffey has 57 strikeouts vs. 14 walks.

In fact, if you are looking for a simplistic system without fully delving into modeling and sabermetrics, you could do a lot worse than simply focusing on guys that average at least 7 strikeouts per nine innings while maintaining a K/BB ratio of at least 3/1.

The 7-strikeout qualifier weeds out guys like Phil Hughes that are always going to have great K/BB ratios because they do not walk anyone but whose stuff is not really all that great.

LT

i get that Nola's advanced stats grade him as a really good pitcher and that's why you're making plays on him, but what do you think is the cause of the disparity between his ERA and xfip. Forgive me if im not extremely knowledgeable of sabermetrics but I would think this disparity is caused by his high BABIP against (.328). Well, cant we look at Eickhoff's and Velasquez's BABIP againsts (.299 and .321, respectively) and just kinda assume that the Phillies are a bad defensive team and that high number wont normalize, therefore were stuck with an underperforming Nola? IDK if that makes sense at all, it does in my head. would love to get your take on it

High K/BB ratio can overcome defense. Nola also has a good ground ball rate of 55.6 percent and his hard-hit ball rate is only a reasonable 26.9 percent, so it is not as if he is allowing a lot of hard-hit ground balls that require infielders to have great range.

"LOLA"
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[funnyb25]

Erin Lola...

[44 Mag]

Erin Lola...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pth79-bpgGs

[JJJ]

LT nice hit on the under in the Rays game keep it up

[aramakilx]

Mag, looks that u start diggin in html lol

[44 Mag]

Mag, looks that u start diggin in html lol

Well, if you don't laugh, it is a classic song.

[aramakilx]

whats happened with sf@ari line?

[Yazworm91]

Hey LT, with all the line movement did Mets close high enough that they should've been a play? Or too much variance with line and model?

[funnyb25]

Nationals!!

[JJJ]

all that chatter and a push in the Phillies game great job LT

[juicername]

3-1-1 day? Why is no one here to tell us how broken the model is?

[funnyb25]

YTD: 239-254-11, -8.16

Model is great...

[JJJ]

you mad bro?

YTD: 239-254-11, -8.16

Model is great...