MLB - Saturday, 7/2/16

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins -108 (5 Dimes)
Tigers / Rays UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
Royals / Phillies UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
Yankees / Padres UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)


YTD: 236-253-10, -10.26

[44 Mag]

4 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins -108 (5 Dimes)
Tigers / Rays UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
Royals / Phillies UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
Yankees / Padres UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)


YTD: 236-253-10, -10.26

Are you expecting Duffy to throw a shutout???

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

St. Louis 61% (-156)
Miami 72% (-257)
Cubs 61% (-156)
Boston 62% (-163)
Washington 66% (-194)
Oakland 61% (-156)
Seattle 60% (-150)
Dodgers 63% (-170)

[LT Profits]

Are you expecting Duffy to throw a shutout???

Believe it or not, there is nothing wrong with Nola's velocity, it has been the same his last four starts as it has been all year. The problem is his sinker has been finding too much of the plate those last four starts, compared to getting a lot of called strikes while living on the corners before that. So it is not a physical issue. Here is a great read:

The Change: What's Going On With Aaron Nola?

And yes, Duffy grades out as the Kansas City ace at the current time.

[newbie64]

20 runs in 12 IP vs AL sorry LT with all do respect i can't go under

[Nateboogy]

Rays U8-105
Phils U7.5 -110
Yanks U7.5 -125

These are what I have and can't buy runs. What do you think?

[unusialsusp5]

20 runs in 12 IP vs AL sorry LT with all do respect i can't go under

i would be more disturbed about the 32 hits in his last 13 innings. sure, he keeps his walks down but give me a bat so i can fatten my batting average must be the theme being sung in opposing dugouts.

[LT Profits]

Rays U8-105
Phils U7.5 -110
Yanks U7.5 -125

These are what I have and can't buy runs. What do you think?

Dang.

Phils 7.5 -110 is still OK (-110 is max I would take there)
Rays 8 I would want +100 or better
Yanks I would want no worse than -120 on 7.5 or at least +105 on 7

[LT Profits]

20 runs in 12 IP vs AL sorry LT with all do respect i can't go under

That is meaningless because he allowed 16 runs in 6 innings vs. AL during current 4-game funk. Before he went bad, he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings vs. a great hitting Detroit team.

So league faced is not the issue, if he corrected his mechanics between starts and returns to form before last four starts, he should be fine. If not, AL or NL would not matter when sinker is right down the middle.

[Nateboogy]

Dang.

Phils 7.5 -110 is still OK (-110 is max I would take there)
Rays 8 I would want +100 or better
Yanks I would want no worse than -120 on 7.5 or at least +105 on 7

Alrighty. Thanks a lot. I took phils under. I'll watch the others and see what happens.

[newbie64]

That is meaningless because he allowed 16 runs in 6 innings vs. AL during current 4-game funk. Before he went bad, he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings vs. a great inning Detroit team.

So league faced is not the issue, if he corrected his mechanics between starts and returns to form before last four starts, he should be fine. If not, AL or NL would not matter when sinker is right down the middle.

So you're telling me that 4-0 over in the last 4 interleague starts is meaningless

[PorkChop]

Thoughts on Angels +150?

[44 Mag]

So you're telling me that 4-0 over in the last 4 interleague starts is meaningless

The guy would have gotten bombed no matter who he played. He could have pitched against his own team and got shelled.

[HeeluvaGuy]

LT - Have you ever tracked your model's overall performance on every play (totals and sides)? If so, could you share the results? Also, do you (or have you considered) using the model to mechanically make plays (as opposed to adding your own subjective analysis)? For example, make every play that is 10% off from the actual line?

[innovation]

Boston by a crooked #

[44 Mag]

Boston by a crooked #

Don't trust Bucholtz. Hey, save your money for Sunday's Red Sox game, they are bringing back Sean O'Sullivan to pitch, he of the 6.00+ ERA . he should give up 5-6 runs by the third inning.

[juicername]

I'll never understand what you see in these Twins. Thinking about Rangers.

[eddycash]

I guess I'm passing all plays since lines are bad now

[eddycash]

Don't like Padres under

[LT Profits]

So you're telling me that 4-0 over in the last 4 interleague starts is meaningless

I am saying it is correctable. His velocity has not changed one bit, it is the location of his sinker that has been six inches off the corner (around middle of plate) his last four after he had been very precise before that for his whole professional career (including minors).

[LT Profits]

I'll never understand what you see in these Twins. Thinking about Rangers.

I have no idea how Texas has won so many games with such a horrible pitching staff outside of Hamels. Twins play is more of a play against Chi Chi.

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on Angels +150?

See 60%ers in Post #3.

[eddycash]

Twins no good now at the current line right?

[LT Profits]

I am saying it is correctable. His velocity has not changed one bit, it is the location of his sinker that has been six inches off the corner (around middle of plate) his last four after he had been very precise before that for his whole professional career (including minors).

I should add that Nola's overall numbers are still good despite the last four disasters, which is the whole point of the play. He still has a 3.16 FIP, 2.99 xFIP and 2.1 WAR, his great first 12 starts still outweigh the last 4. It is pretty amazing that he is still fifth in the Major Leagues in xFIP right now.

[LT Profits]

Twins no good now at the current line right?

WOW, did not see line take off. No, only good up to -115ish. I get 56% (-127).

[homerbush]

I have no idea how Texas has won so many games with such a horrible pitching staff outside of Hamels. Twins play is more of a play against Chi Chi.

My Rangers play is a play against Duffey.

[LT Profits]

My Rangers play is a play against Duffey.

I am not saying he is a stud, but Duffey still grades out a lot better than Gonzalez. Model always likes guys with great K/BB ratios and Duffey has 57 strikeouts vs. 14 walks.

[LT Profits]

In fact, if you are looking for a simplistic system without fully delving into modeling and sabermetrics, you could do a lot worse than simply focusing on guys that average at least 7 strikeouts per nine innings while maintaining a K/BB ratio of at least 3/1.

The 7-strikeout qualifier weeds out guys like Phil Hughes that are always going to have great K/BB ratios because they do not walk anyone but whose stuff is not really all that great.

[MMA_Oracle]

LT

i get that Nola's advanced stats grade him as a really good pitcher and that's why you're making plays on him, but what do you think is the cause of the disparity between his ERA and xfip. Forgive me if im not extremely knowledgeable of sabermetrics but I would think this disparity is caused by his high BABIP against (.328). Well, cant we look at Eickhoff's and Velasquez's BABIP againsts (.299 and .321, respectively) and just kinda assume that the Phillies are a bad defensive team and that high number wont normalize, therefore were stuck with an underperforming Nola? IDK if that makes sense at all, it does in my head. would love to get your take on it

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins -108 (5 Dimes)
Tigers / Rays UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
Royals / Phillies UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
Reds / Nationals UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Padres UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)

[stackz125]

San Fran -110
White sox -110
Indians +140

Good?

[jay89]

Tigers o2 ff -129
Padres o2 ff +105
Nats o2.5 ff -113
Royals o4 +106

good luck buddy

[LT Profits]

LT

i get that Nola's advanced stats grade him as a really good pitcher and that's why you're making plays on him, but what do you think is the cause of the disparity between his ERA and xfip. Forgive me if im not extremely knowledgeable of sabermetrics but I would think this disparity is caused by his high BABIP against (.328). Well, cant we look at Eickhoff's and Velasquez's BABIP againsts (.299 and .321, respectively) and just kinda assume that the Phillies are a bad defensive team and that high number wont normalize, therefore were stuck with an underperforming Nola? IDK if that makes sense at all, it does in my head. would love to get your take on it

High K/BB ratio can overcome defense. Nola also has a good ground ball rate of 55.6 percent and his hard-hit ball rate is only a reasonable 26.9 percent, so it is not as if he is allowing a lot of hard-hit ground balls that require infielders to have great range.

[Snake24]

4 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins -108 (5 Dimes)
Tigers / Rays UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
Royals / Phillies UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
Yankees / Padres UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)


YTD: 236-253-10, -10.26

LT, how do you rate Snell thus far? The rook has faced some tough teams in his last four starts. Now, the Tigers.

[MMA_Oracle]

High K/BB ratio can overcome defense. Nola also has a good ground ball rate of 55.6 percent and his hard-hit ball rate is only a reasonable 26.9 percent, so it is not as if he is allowing a lot of hard-hit ground balls that require infielders to have great range.

Sure, but only four teams have struck out less than the Royals. More balls in play = more opportunities for Philly defense to eff up