MLB - Thursday, 6/9/16

RavensFan2k3 · 06-09-16, 06:48 AM

I knew you'd be on Houston!

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 06:57 AM

60%ers:

Toronto 64% (-178)
St. Louis 61% (-156)
Washington 61% (-156)

Currently no line on Toronto, so that may be worth monitoring.

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 06:58 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I knew you'd be on Houston!

Watch them lose today, which would mean they lost all three games I bet them this series and won the one game I passed on.

RavensFan2k3 · 06-09-16, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Watch them lose today, which would mean they lost all three games I bet them this series and won the one game I passed on.

Hmm, Well I'm on Texas. Goodluck with the rest of your plays LT!

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Hmm, Well I'm on Texas. Goodluck with the rest of your plays LT!

I have Perez as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and McHugh as above average, but people that only look at ERA would not get that.

Perez won't maintain his ERA, he projects to close to a 5.00 ERA over the rest of the year given his peripherals.

RavensFan2k3 · 06-09-16, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I have Perez as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and McHugh as above average, but people that only look at ERA would not get that.

Perez won't maintain his ERA, he projects to close to a 5.00 ERA over the rest of the year given his peripherals.

I do see what you're saying, but seeing as I'm not one of those people who only look at ERA, I have McHugh as barely average, although he has gotten better. I have Perez as average, slightly above average. Perez, idk why you have him as one of the worst starting pitchers. I do see what you're saying about his peripherals, but the same way he's pitching now is how he always has pitched. Cannot deny that he does have some talent.

Also great picks yesterday, especially on the Rockies!

goduke · 06-09-16, 07:27 AM

Why minny? Santana seems to be regressing lately and most of his starts his teammates seem to not help him at all

PorkChop · 06-09-16, 07:27 AM

How nuts I am to like White Sox +140?

44 Mag · 06-09-16, 07:30 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

3 MLB Plays Thursday

Astros -114 (5 Dimes)
Nationals / White Sox OVER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Twins -128 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 175-182-8, +0.64

Wow, Minny to take three in a row.....

goduke · 06-09-16, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I have Perez as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and McHugh as above average, but people that only look at ERA would not get that.

Perez won't maintain his ERA, he projects to close to a 5.00 ERA over the rest of the year given his peripherals.

Does your model not take into account that Houston just struggles mightily in Texas. Even if Lewis is bad Houston is what 1-8 or something like that against texas. I know you treat games individually but what about in season cases where one team just seems to be in another teams head and performs much better against them when they face off

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 07:45 AM

Originally posted by goduke

Why minny? Santana seems to be regressing lately and most of his starts his teammates seem to not help him at all

More of an indictment of Koehler than anything else, he is walking almost as many batters as he is striking out. His 5.40 walks per nine innings is the second worst in the Major Leagues among qualified starters and his 5.20 xFIP is seventh worst. Even with Santana, model has Twins 59% (-144).

jjgold · 06-09-16, 07:48 AM

I hate the Twins and fade them ever game

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I do see what you're saying, but seeing as I'm not one of those people who only look at ERA, I have McHugh as barely average, although he has gotten better. I have Perez as average, slightly above average. Perez, idk why you have him as one of the worst starting pitchers. I do see what you're saying about his peripherals, but the same way he's pitching now is how he always has pitched. Cannot deny that he does have some talent.

Also great picks yesterday, especially on the Rockies!

Perez has a current 4.47 FIP and 4.68 xFIP, so I didn't say he grades out as one of the worst pitchers just based on projections alone. But speaking of projections, his forecasted ROS ERA of 4.83 is one of the worst I have seen.

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 07:53 AM

Originally posted by goduke

Does your model not take into account that Houston just struggles mightily in Texas. Even if Lewis is bad Houston is what 1-8 or something like that against texas. I know you treat games individually but what about in season cases where one team just seems to be in another teams head and performs much better against them when they face off

No has no impact at all, other than sometimes giving value to the opposite side.

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

How nuts I am to like White Sox +140?

As you see I have Nats -156, but I do like the Over neither starter has resembled Cy Young.

grey area · 06-09-16, 08:07 AM

Killer sweep my man! GL

RavensFan2k3 · 06-09-16, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Perez has a current 4.47 FIP and 4.68 xFIP, so I didn't say he grades out as one of the worst pitchers just based on projections alone. But speaking of projections, his forecasted ROS ERA of 4.83 is one of the worst I have seen.

Oh ok, because your first sentence in this post literally said you have him as one of the worst starting pitchers

Originally posted by LT Profits

I have Perez as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and McHugh as above average, but people that only look at ERA would not get that.

Perez won't maintain his ERA, he projects to close to a 5.00 ERA over the rest of the year given his peripherals.

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Oh ok, because your first sentence in this post literally said you have him as one of the worst starting pitchers

Well, the model's goal is to predict future performance, so in that regard he is.

homerbush · 06-09-16, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I do see what you're saying, but seeing as I'm not one of those people who only look at ERA, I have McHugh as barely average, although he has gotten better. I have Perez as average, slightly above average. Perez, idk why you have him as one of the worst starting pitchers. I do see what you're saying about his peripherals, but the same way he's pitching now is how he always has pitched. Cannot deny that he does have some talent.

Also great picks yesterday, especially on the Rockies!

I am on Rangers but really really like the over

RavensFan2k3 · 06-09-16, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by homerbush

I am on Rangers but really really like the over

Hmm, I like the under, but I don't play totals. Best of luck

44 Mag · 06-09-16, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Hmm, I like the under, but I don't play totals. Best of luck

Day game in Texas, with two suspect pitchers??? Tough to call.......McHugh is getting a little better. BOL in whatever you decide, I am sure pondering this one..................

RavensFan2k3 · 06-09-16, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Day game in Texas, with two suspect pitchers??? Tough to call.......McHugh is getting a little better. BOL in whatever you decide, I am sure pondering this one..................

I'm no good with totals lol

44 Mag · 06-09-16, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

I'm no good with totals lol

Neither am I.

RavensFan2k3 · 06-09-16, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Neither am I.

You're definitely good at totals

RavensFan2k3 · 06-09-16, 09:36 AM

LT this line movement is looking good for you. I just cannon reason to back McHugh here, unless you're just fading Perez, which I can understand, but I cannot trust McHugh in this spot

Nateboogy · 06-09-16, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

LT this line movement is looking good for you. I just cannon reason to back McHugh here, unless you're just fading Perez, which I can understand, but I cannot trust McHugh in this spot

I am a huge stros fan, watch them every night. We are playing a million times better than we were at the beginning of the year. Should have taken the first 2 in Fort worth against 2 of their studs. Beat the third stud last night. Now we have one of our studs going against one of their scrubs, while also trying to split this huge series. I love stros here. Only thing that scares me is our lineups versus lefties can be suspect, but everyone is swinging the bat better. This is a much bigger game for us rather than them. Mchugh is a million times better than perez, and our bullpen is way better. I think LT is spot on here.

44 Mag · 06-09-16, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by Nateboogy

I am a huge stros fan, watch them every night. We are playing a million times better than we were at the beginning of the year. Should have taken the first 2 in Fort worth against 2 of their studs. Beat the third stud last night. Now we have one of our studs going against one of their scrubs, while also trying to split this huge series. I love stros here. Only thing that scares me is our lineups versus lefties can be suspect, but everyone is swinging the bat better. This is a much bigger game for us rather than them. Mchugh is a million times better than perez, and our bullpen is way better. I think LT is spot on here.

So will you be betting a "million dollars" on Houston today ??? Seeing as how you are a fan and all.

Nateboogy · 06-09-16, 10:26 AM

Lmao. No. But McHugh is better than Perez and we are one of the hotter teams in baseball right now. Just giving you some insight as to what I see on a nightly basis.

LT Profits · 06-09-16, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

LT this line movement is looking good for you. I just cannon reason to back McHugh here, unless you're just fading Perez, which I can understand, but I cannot trust McHugh in this spot

McHugh is fine, he has 8.19 strikeouts vs. 2.28 walks per nine innings. That is a better strikeout rate and about the same good walks rate he had last year (7.56 vs. 2.34) while going 19-7. He should come around shortly.

44 Mag · 06-09-16, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Nateboogy

Lmao. No. But McHugh is better than Perez and we are one of the hotter teams in baseball right now. Just giving you some insight as to what I see on a nightly basis.

Too tough to figure out. LT went 7-0 yesterday, and you seem to like them. BOL on your team.

Nateboogy · 06-09-16, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Too tough to figure out. LT went 7-0 yesterday, and you seem to like them. BOL on your team.

BOL to you as well

KOSSUTH · 06-09-16, 11:02 AM

LT....Super pick on the Rockies......WOW....THANKS

funnyb25 · 06-09-16, 02:39 PM

Lol McHugh. Straight garbage

44 Mag · 06-09-16, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I have Perez as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and McHugh as above average, but people that only look at ERA would not get that.

Perez won't maintain his ERA, he projects to close to a 5.00 ERA over the rest of the year given his peripherals.

So much for McHugh. 4 innings.........I fell into as well. Maybe next time.