MLB - Friday, 5/27/16

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Friday

Dodgers +120 (Heritage)
White Sox +147 (5 Dimes)
Astros -114 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 144-142-6, +10.42

[Chi_archie]

give em hell, LT

[gpet1984]

Rockies today -120? Cain is horrendous and Rockies have lite him up this year. Chatwood is solid his era is blown up a bit from a bad start at home. Feel like he has a bigger edge heads up vs Giants then -120 says. Any opinion on this game?

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays

4 MLB Plays Friday

Dodgers +120 (Heritage)
Marlins / Braves OVER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
White Sox +147 (5 Dimes)
Astros -114 (Bookmaker)

[44 Mag]

Rockies today -120? Cain is horrendous and Rockies have lite him up this year. Chatwood is solid his era is blown up a bit from a bad start at home. Feel like he has a bigger edge heads up vs Giants then -120 says. Any opinion on this game?

Cain's last three starts his ERA is 1.71. Chatwood sucks at home his ERA is almost 7.00 at home. What are you reading ???? Take the over 10.5 , it's a gift the way SF is hitting and the thin air in Colorado.

[gpet1984]

Last 3 starts? look at his last 3 years hes terrible. How he almost blanked the cubs is beyond me. I agree with you on the over tho

[44 Mag]

Last 3 starts? look at his last 3 years hes terrible. How he almost blanked the cubs is beyond me. I agree with you on the over tho

I am not saying he is an "Ace" I'm just saying he has done a little better that the start of the year. But seriously, look up Chatwood at home, he gets blown out. LOL. It's true. Over for me brother.

[gpet1984]

Yea Chatwood has been bad at home hence his ERA. Hes been a stud on the road tho. Seems like the story of rockies pitchers this year

[LT Profits]

Rockies today -120? Cain is horrendous and Rockies have lite him up this year. Chatwood is solid his era is blown up a bit from a bad start at home. Feel like he has a bigger edge heads up vs Giants then -120 says. Any opinion on this game?

Model only has Colorado 51% (-104).

Cain does suck but model expects regression from Chatwood. His 4.09 FIP is more than full run higher than his ERA and he has been lucky with an 81.2 percent strand rate. Plus the Giants offense vs. righties grades out quite a bit better than the Colorado offense vs. righties.

[LT Profits]

Yea Chatwood has been bad at home hence his ERA. Hes been a stud on the road tho. Seems like the story of rockies pitchers this year

ERA is even more meaningless for Colorado pitchers than it already normally is. See Jon Gray. That is why it is amazing what Jorge De La Rosa has been able to do throughout his career (until this year).

[gpet1984]

Well era should matter on the road for rockies pitchers no? I know Chatwood is not even close to as good as Gray but heads up vs cain I felt liek he had a big enough edge. Good thing i asked your opinion! =) also looking at rays yankees u7 even money and Minny seattle u7 if i can get plus money

[LT Profits]

Well era should matter on the road for rockies pitchers no? I know Chatwood is not even close to as good as Gray but heads up vs cain I felt liek he had a big enough edge. Good thing i asked your opinion! =) also looking at rays yankees u7 even money and Minny seattle u7 if i can get plus money

ERA is not a predictive stat, but as long as bettors rely on it heavily, there should always be value available. FIP and xFIP much more meaningful, as well as "luck" stats like BABIP and strand rate. There are more but I won't divulge them.

[44 Mag]

ERA is not a predictive stat, but as long as bettors rely on it heavily, there should always be value available. FIP and xFIP much more meaningful, as well as "luck" stats like BABIP and strand rate. There are more but I won't divulge them.

They key to most games.

[Redscot]

Good day to you LT, and continued success. Curious if you use SIERA as well. From one of your favorite resources:

But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.

[tpark77]

How does your system grade Cubs vs Phillies today?

Any 60% today?

[PorkChop]

Model only has Colorado 51% (-104).

Cain does suck but model expects regression from Chatwood. His 4.09 FIP is more than full run higher than his ERA and he has been lucky with an 81.2 percent strand rate. Plus the Giants offense vs. righties grades out quite a bit better than the Colorado offense vs. righties.

Just my two cents; Cain has lost to Colorado twice already, 6ER each game, didn't make it through 5 in either, I'll take Cain here tonight at plus money +110.

[LT Profits]

Good day to you LT, and continued success. Curious if you use SIERA as well. From one of your favorite resources:

But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.

I like SIERA and I appreciate the pitch profile link from yesterday. My problem is I am a reluctant to tweak my model (which does not use SIERA either) as the combination of stats it does use seems to be working great and I don't want to futz around with it. So while SIERA may be more predictive than xFIP on its own (just quoting that, I have no evidence myself), the combination of xFIP and everything else I use probably trumps SIERA. I don't want to take xFIP out or add another variable.

[Redscot]

I like SIERA and I appreciate the pitch profile link from yesterday. My problem is I am a reluctant to tweak my model (which does not use SIERA either) as the combination of stats it does use seems to be working great and I don't want to futz around with it. So while SIERA may be more predictive than xFIP on its own (just quoting that, I have no evidence myself), the combination of xFIP and everything else I use probably trumps SIERA. I don't want to take xFIP out or add another variable.

Makes a lot of sense LT. If it ain't broke don't fix it.

[gpet1984]

I guess I didn't look deep enough into this one. I over valued Chatwood. I wouldn't touch Cain w/ a 10 ft pole in Colorado. Thanks fot the opinions =)

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Cubs 76% (-317)
Washington 65% (-186)
Texas 60% (-150)
Arizona 61% (-156)
Seattle 66% (-194)

[tpark77]

I saw you took Dodgers. What does it say about that game? How does your model handle pitchers making their debut?

[LT Profits]

I saw you took Dodgers. What does it say about that game? How does your model handle pitchers making their debut?

Model has Dodgers FAVORED 52% (-108), Urias is the greatest thing since sliced bread!

He was averaging 9.66 strikeouts vs. 1.76 walks per nine innings at Triple-A this year, he has four + pitches that he could throw for strikes with great control of all of them. He did not allow a run over his last five appearances, and if you take away his one loss where he allowed four runs back in April, he allowed a TOTAL of one run over his other seven games.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa736324&position=P

[PorkChop]

No love to St.Louis +158? My word

[LT Profits]

No love to St.Louis +158? My word

Not even close, take a look at 60%ers.

Washington 65% (-186)

[LT Profits]

Not even close, take a look at 60%ers.

Washington 65% (-186)

In fact, it is NATS that are undervalued according to model if you do not mind laying odds.

[Slanina]

LT, Sox at +134?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

so this 19yo kid isn't just a big hype? those odds are really low for his first start in the majors against an ace.

[gpet1984]

I'm a Met fan and I'll be honest DeGrom isn't an ace nor pitching like one. Hes gutty as he proved last year in the playoffs but hes not on Syndergaard or Matz level. His velocity is down (Havn't seen him hit 95 yet on the gun). His era is lower then his xFIP by almost a point. I think this is a good spot for a young stud to come up in. Against a guy struggling and a team that can't hit lately besides Cesp.

[LT Profits]

LT, Sox at +134?

You need to wake up earlier.

Just playing, but I get Kansas City 56% (-127), so would want bear minimum of +139.

[iloseagain]

do you know what the xFIP numbers are of Chatwood on the road? His ERA and numbers on the road are insane. Wondering if the xFIP matches

I know hes at home today but just curious

[LT Profits]

do you know what the xFIP numbers are of Chatwood on the road? His ERA and numbers on the road are insane. Wondering if the xFIP matches

I know hes at home today but just curious

Road xFIP is 3.84 vs. 0.53 ERA
Home xFIP is 4.22 vs. 6.65 ERA

[iloseagain]

Road xFIP is 3.84 vs. 0.53 ERA
Home xFIP is 4.22 vs. 6.65 ERA

interesting. thanks

[LT Profits]

1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

5 MLB Plays Friday

Dodgers +120 (Heritage)
Marlins / Braves OVER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
White Sox +147 (5 Dimes)
Diamondbacks -0.5 -120 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Astros -114 (Bookmaker)

[RavensFan2k3]

Diamondbacks??? Noo, I was just about to play Padres. How do feel about Oakland?

[funnyb25]

Urias be lucky to make it through 4 tonight...