MLB Player Props

[HeeluvaGuy]

One more for 6/1:

K. Morales hits/runs/RBIs over S. Souza +105

2 hits + 1 RBI > 1 run scored

10-5-2 (+8.35u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Last one for 6/1:

J. Werth hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +160

Only 1 hit for Werth

10-6-2 (+7.35u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

One for the 6/2 7 o'clock games:

X. Bogaerts hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +130

[HeeluvaGuy]

One more for 6/2:

J. Bruce hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +120

[HeeluvaGuy]

One for the 6/2 7 o'clock games:

X. Bogaerts hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +130

2-run single in the top of the 6th gets this one done

11-6-2 (+8.65u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

One more for 6/2:

J. Bruce hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +120

Bruce has 2 hits, 2 RBIs, and a run scored ... so far

12-6-2 (+9.85u)

[doubledime]

I have to start looking for your updates earlier. Nicely done.

[iloseagain]

hey man do you mind if i post a prop in here from time to time? Im doing very well on the Total Bases props. Hit Machado over Hanley today. Im 7-2 on the year. I try to play them very selectively, but if i start looking at them more, then i will prob play more than i should. Ive found its best to be selective with these kinds of bets (for me anyways). Looks like you are doing pretty well!

[HeeluvaGuy]

hey man do you mind if i post a prop in here from time to time? Im doing very well on the Total Bases props. Hit Machado over Hanley today. Im 7-2 on the year. I try to play them very selectively, but if i start looking at them more, then i will prob play more than i should. Ive found its best to be selective with these kinds of bets (for me anyways). Looks like you are doing pretty well!

Fine by me. Good luck!

[HeeluvaGuy]

I have to start looking for your updates earlier. Nicely done.

Thanks. I don't have a regular time that I post these. I like to post reasoning when I have time, but don't always get to that. But they're all researched the same whether there's a write up or not.

[iloseagain]

Fine by me. Good luck!

thanks, to you as well. Lets see if we can both keep on a roll here

[iloseagain]

My record on these is 7-2. Not posted in here, but posted in my thread over the season so far.

Belt -105 over Piscotty.
>>Belt is hitting .500 over the last 7 days. Pisco is hitting .214 over L7 days. Pisco has to face Cueto, who doesnt give up a lot of hits and Belt is facing a righty in Waino. Belt is .302 against righties for the season as well. Cueto holds right handed batters to .213 BA. The only thing that scares me here is the line. Pisco is -135, which makes him a pretty big favorite over Belt. With all the research and numbers I have dug up, its hard to see how Pisco out-hits Belt in this one, but they play the games for a reason.

Adam Jones -135 over Mark Teixeira
>>Jones is hitting .345 over L7 games. Tex is hitting .059 LOL. Jones should get more ABs than Tex, as well, with how much Balt has been scoring lately.

Hosmer -125 over Carlos Santana (This is my #1 play tonight for the props)
>>Hosmer is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He has a .536 BA over L7. Santana has a .200 BA over L7. This line is lower than it should be because of Danny Salazar pitching for Cleveland. However, Hosmer has seen him a lot in his career and has had good success against him. He is 8 for 23 (.348 BA) with 2 HR and 6 RBI against Salazar. Santana is 3 for 12 against Volquez. Salazar also has been hit a little bit lately, showing he isnt in great form.

Betts -125 over Encarnacion
>>I hope im not betting on Betts right as he starts cooling off. He has certainly been hot as of late, and is 10 for 31 off Dickey which is good for a .323 BA. Encarnacion struggles against Price, as he is 10 for 44 which is a .227 BA. Betts also leads off, so he should have a chance to get 1 more AB than his opponent.


Lean on Holliday -130 over Posey in this game as well. Lot of numbers in Hollidays favor in this one.
Lean on AGon -125 over Freeman.
Lean Cain -135 over Kipnis. Cain hitting very well lately and also kills Salazar (8 for 20, .400 BA against him)

[iloseagain]

see i liked it better when i was playing 1 of these here and there. I have never put much time into looking at these though. I usually just use my knowledge of knowing whos on a hitting streak and i try to bet on them as they are heating up. However, these bets might be easier than picking games because if you find a hitter who is hot, against a hitter who is cold, and the hot hitter has good numbers against the pitcher hes facing, why wouldnt he do better than his opponent? Im starting to think these bets might be the way to go.. Im curious to see if i have better success playing these kinds of bets rather than playing games. We will find out soon..

[HeeluvaGuy]

Three of these in a day is a lot for me. I tend to stick to the individual player totals rather than the head-to-head. I find that there are less variables because I'm focusing on one hitter, one SP, and one bullpen (though honestly I don't focus much on the pens). I also limit myself to plays of +100 or higher.

When I have time I'll look at match ups a day in advance to find potential plays and then cross-check them with actual lines. But that can involve a lot of wasted effort when lines don't get posted for plays I've identified ahead of time.

[iloseagain]

Yea i only looked at the matchups that were listed in my book.. I don't even have those props that you have so i can't do anything other than the head to head matchups unfortunately

[HeeluvaGuy]

6/3:

L. Cain hits/runs/RBIs o2 +110

Looking like the only play tonight.

[iloseagain]

looks good. i liked him on the heads up matchup as well. GL

[HeeluvaGuy]

6/3:

L. Cain hits/runs/RBIs o2 +110

Looking like the only play tonight.

Shut out in this one

12-7-2 (+8.85u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

6/4:

E. Suarez no hits +145

V. Martinez hits/runs/RBIs +125

[doubledime]

6/4:

E. Suarez no hits +145

V. Martinez hits/runs/RBIs +125

I have never been any good with props, but it it sure seems you have been doing well, so I going to take a position on this. Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

I have never been any good with props, but it it sure seems you have been doing well, so I going to take a position on this. Good luck

Good luck to us!

[HeeluvaGuy]

6/4:

E. Suarez no hits +145

V. Martinez hits/runs/RBIs +125

Suarez went 0-4 with 4 Ks; Martinez had 2 hits and a run.

14-7-2 (+11.55u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

6/5:

D. Murphy hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +120

[HeeluvaGuy]

More plays than usual today:

E. Longoria hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +130

B. Zobrist hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +120

A. Beltre hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +120

[doubledime]

6/4:

E. Suarez no hits +145

V. Martinez hits/runs/RBIs +125

Nicely done

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nicely done

Thanks. These have been going well.

[HeeluvaGuy]

6/5:

D. Murphy hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +120

Covered in the 4th with a Murphy HR

15-7-2 (+12.75u)

[BIG]

Nice!!

[iloseagain]

damn i wish i had these props.. ur killin it! Murph gets 1 hit, 1 run, and 1 rbi with a dinger haha thats nice..

[HeeluvaGuy]

More plays than usual today:

E. Longoria hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +130

B. Zobrist hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +120

A. Beltre hits/runs/RBIs o2.5 +120

Longoria had a couple of HRs, but Zobrist and Beltre did nothing.

16-8-2 (+12.05u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like nothing for tonight. Only have head-to-heads posted and don't see anything worth playing.

[doubledime]

Looks like nothing for tonight. Only have head-to-heads posted and don't see anything worth playing.

Nothing wrong with passing

[HeeluvaGuy]

6/7:

A. Beltre total bases over C. Correa +130

[doubledime]

HG, Is it possible to give the game that these props are in, if it's not too much trouble?

Thanks DD

[HeeluvaGuy]

HG, Is it possible to give the game that these props are in, if it's not too much trouble?

Thanks DD

Yeah, that's no problem. FWIW, I don't have anything else for the 7:00 games. Still muddling through the later stuff.