MLB - Wednesday, 5/18/16

[HeeluvaGuy]

I disagree with this whole post, each game is its own entity and should be capped on its own merits. I have said several times that "streaks" do not really exist in terms of handicapping, expect for sometimes giving value to the opposite side of the streak.

I generally agree with you about each game being it's own entity, but I rode that Detroit over streak for 10+ games last year. That was phenom.

[Snake24]

it's only 10:30am CST this thread is on page 2. Good ish LT.

[LT Profits]

LT what are your thoughts on Balt/sea under? Both pitchers seems to be playing well

Look at my plays, I am on the OVER. I never liked Tillman, he always outperformed his peripheral numbers until last year, when his mainstream stats and saber stats were finally is sync and we saw what he really was. Walker has more potential to be really good, but he has a limited track record and the Orioles are just killing righties, especially at home.

[LT Profits]

I generally agree with you about each game being it's own entity, but I rode that Detroit over streak for 10+ games last year. That was phenom.

But that probably had more to do with those totals being deflated with the books a bit slow to react. That helped CAUSE the streak, which is the opposite of blindly betting Over because of the streak.

[Diesel79]

LT what are your thoughts on Balt/sea under? Both pitchers seems to be playing well

Cant you see what he is betting today? Obviously he likes over in this game...

[kobi_j]

Sorry I don't know how to read. Just came to America from Africa

[BKLYN921]

Good Luck LT. Love following your plays!

[TH0R]

LT, any value betting the over in STL/COL game o7½-110?

Thanks again

[LT Profits]

LT, any value betting the over in STL/COL game o7½-110?

Thanks again

Not according to model, it has 7.3. I would consider the Under 8 right now if the Under wasn't so juiced.

[LT Profits]

MLB Addition at 1:10 ET!

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Twins +144 (Heritage)
Braves / Pirates UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Mariners / Orioles OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rays +118 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Royals UNDER 7 +100 (Game #2) (Heritage)

[reed_barrington]

Twins?

well shit, I just played detroit

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Twins +144 (Heritage)
Braves / Pirates UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Mariners / Orioles OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rays +118 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Royals UNDER 7 +100 (Game #2) (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Additions

7 MLB Plays Wednesday

Twins +144 (Heritage)
Braves / Pirates UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Mariners / Orioles OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rays +118 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Royals UNDER 7 +100 (Game #2) (Heritage)
Dodgers -102 (Heritage)
Giants / Padres UNDER 6.5 -110 (Heritage)

[Yazworm91]

LT we've never actually went in depth about this but I know you've mentioned you do look at lines overnight. I'm curious at to why you didn't take Tampa Bay last night at +122 on 5dimes compared to +118 now someone might say 4 cents isn't a huge deal. This is just 1 example by the way. I've seen a team overnight at +108 but you didn't take them till they were -113.

[KickShootThrow]

Twins?

well shit, I just played detroit

Nolasco... Detroit batters have his number as shown historically. And Minnesota bats haven't been swinging at all in their stretch of games. Not sure what you saw in Twins.

Tigers have had a nice pressure game on the Twins today.

[LT Profits]

LT we've never actually went in depth about this but I know you've mentioned you do look at lines overnight. I'm curious at to why you didn't take Tampa Bay last night at +122 on 5dimes compared to +118 now someone might say 4 cents isn't a huge deal. This is just 1 example by the way. I've seen a team overnight at +108 but you didn't take them till they were -113.

I don't start looking at games until I wake up in the morning. The problem with early overnights is that there are still games going on, and all games are related to each other in regards to many ratings.

[blackHIPPY]

just realized that under was for game 2

[Chavs]

just realized that under was for game 2

So...did you get the win on Game 1?

[blackHIPPY]

So...did you get the win on Game 1?

$$$
post wouldve been much more self depreciating had it lost of course

[Chavs]

$$$
post wouldve been much more self depreciating had it lost of course

hahaha. I hear you. I did the exact same thing.

[jameski999]

3 Homeruns in Seattle game. All solo shots... Always hurts the over