***** Totals and Sides *****

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Adding a Regular Play:

Min/LAA over 8 -130 (for 20 cents I'm buying the hook on this one)

I have capped this game at 8.8 runs. I usually like a bigger spread, but the starters are crap, the weather is slightly in our favor, the relievers are crap and they do not have a lot of rest the last 3 days. Did I mention the team and starter trends favor the over? I also think we will see the relievers fairly early in the game. We'll see.

Good luck

[Mike Huntertz]

Try 8.5....GL

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 2-0
YTD: 59-43 +11.50 units

Reliever Plays: 6-1
YTD: 126-96

Back later with today's plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Tuesday's Reliever Plays:

Reds/Atl over 8
Mia/SD over 7.5
Milw/SF over 6.5
Det/WS over 9
Min/LAA over 8
TX/Oak over 8
Hou/St. L under 8.5

Back later with any Regular Plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

This thread started out (as the subject line states) that it was "sides and totals". Early on it was apparent that the totals were hitting better than my sides, so I stopped posting sides. Then, I saw a simple edge of just handicapping the relief stats and releasing those, and so far they are 126-96 YTD. I realise that 222 games does not make a year, but I think we can all agree it's a positive looking start.

With that success in mind, I have been testing a correlation between the relief stats and how I rate the starter for a game. So far it's been very strong. I have not played any of these since I am in the test mode, and my sample has only been about 50 games so it's quite small, but still looking promising. Some plays are dogs, some are bigger favs that I use the one (1) run line to reduce the juice.

I will post them, only so all can see if they win or loose. Remember these are for testing purposes only. I would not play them just yet. Let's see how they do.

Mia +120
Bost -1 -125
Clev -120
TX -even
St. Louis -135

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Tuesday's Regular Plays:

Reds/Atl over 7.5 -105
Min/LAA over 7.5 -125

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 1-1
YTD: 60-44 +11.45 units

Reliever Plays: 4-2-1
YTD: 130-98

Back later with today's plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The Reliever Plays for Wednesday:

Mia/SD over 8.5
Milw/SF over 7
Reds/Atl over 8
Det/WS over 9
Min/LAA over 8.5
TX/Oak over 8
Tor/Phil over 8

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The "Testing Plays" went 2-3 (-1.6 units) yesterday

Wednesday's Testing Plays:

SF -1 - 140
Wash -135
Clev -135
Min +110

Back later with the Regular Plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

By the way, how about the Reds/Atl game last night. 3 runs are scored in the TOP of the first and only 1 run is scores in the remaining 8.5 innings. WTF! I just had to vent a little.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

I want to post this Regular Play early since I feel it may go up.

TX/Oak over 8 -115

Back later with any update.

Good luck

[doubledime]

No afternoon plays for Wednesday

[doubledime]

Adding Regular Plays:

Bost/Balt over 9 -125
Min/LAA over 8 -115

Good luck

[Mike Huntertz]

One in, thanxs for that!
2 to go....Score You Bastards

[doubledime]

One in, thanxs for that!
2 to go....Score You Bastards

I was thinking the same thing before I went to sleep. Liked what I saw when I woke up!

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 3-0
YTD: 63-44 +14.45 units

Reliever Plays: 6-1
YTD: 136-99

Back later with today's plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Thursday's Reliever Plays:

Reds/Atl over 8
Wash/SD over 7.5
Seat/TB over 7.5
TX/Oak over 8.5
Tor/Philly over 7.5

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

2-2 on "Testing Plays"

YTD 4-5 -1.95 units

Thursday's Testing Plays:

LAD -1 -125
TX -110
Bost -1 -115

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

The Regular Play for Thursday afternoon:

TX/Oak over 8.5

Good luck

[freddues]

DD how do umps factor into your metrics?

• Under is 18-7-1 in Basners last 26 games behind home plate.

Keep up the awesome analysis--thanks!

[doubledime]

DD how do umps factor into your metrics?

• Under is 18-7-1 in Basners last 26 games behind home plate.

Keep up the awesome analysis--thanks!

Thanks for the good words.

Umpires are about 10% of my handicapping.

Basner, this year is 5-4 to the over with 9.1 average runs per game. At this point I have him as "neutral" when he is behind the plate.

As far as the game goes,I don't think that the starters are as good as their ERA shows and the relievers have worked quit a bit the last 3 days. We have quite a few team trends leaning to the over and weather should not be a factor. Let's hope for lots of runs.

[doubledime]

No plays for Thursday night.

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Yesterday:

Regular Plays: 0-1
YTD: 63-45 +13.35 units

Reliever Plays: 4-1
YTD: 140-100

Back later with today's plays

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

As I mentioned in a post early on, the Reliever Plays just look at the relief staff of each team, their rest or lack of it for the last 1 day and 3 days, and their ERA. I can calculate the "Reliever Plays" in about 15 minutes. As of yesterday, they are 140-100 (58.3%) at an price of about -1.13. I have to ask myself why do any other handicapping? Just saying.......

Friday's Reliever Plays:

AZ/Philly over 8.5
Wash/SD over 7.5
Sea/Bost over 9.5
NYY/Min over 8
LAA/Oak over 8

Good luck

[DU46]

DD - have you noticed any sort of trend with 1 day and 3 days of rest or lack of it that is hitting at a higher rate vs. the other?

[doubledime]

DD - have you noticed any sort of trend with 1 day and 3 days of rest or lack of it that is hitting at a higher rate vs. the other?

I have not noticed any trend. Basically I look at how many innings, pitches and outs the relief staff has worked the last day and the last 3 days. I also look at how the closing staff has done the last 30 days. Finally, I look at the ERA of the bullpen. At least 80% of those factors have to meet my criteria to be a play.

I can't say that this winning percentage will continue, but it sure is one of the simplest most effective handicapping tools I have used in 40+ years of doing this. At this point, anyone can do what they want, but I would not bet against it.

[DU46]

Agree, I am just betting them all for a small amount each game, makes it interesting.

[Mike Huntertz]

240 plays is a decent sample size, that is for sure.

[doubledime]

Agree, I am just betting them all for a small amount each game, makes it interesting.

That seems to be a prudent way to go.

[doubledime]

240 plays is a decent sample size, that is for sure.

I think by the All Star break will be telling. I hope it continues

[doubledime]

Good morning,

2-2 on "Testing Plays"

YTD 4-5 -1.95 units

Thursday's Testing Plays:

LAD -1 -125
TX -110
Bost -1 -115

Good luck

I decided not to give these out any longer until I have a larger sample.

[Click_Clack]

i personally think you should continue to post them. you already went on record and told us not to play them. rome wasn't built in a day. keep them and let's see the progress #trusttheprocess

[doubledime]

i personally think you should continue to post them. you already went on record and told us not to play them. rome wasn't built in a day. keep them and let's see the progress #trusttheprocess

OKAY here they are for Friday:

Cubs -1.5 -120 (already gone)
AZ -145
Mets -1.5 -105
Tor -140
Det -115
LAA -140
Hou -1.5 -130

Most of these have more juice than I like to play, but it is what it is

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

No Regular Plays for Friday

Good luck

[doubledime]

OKAY here they are for Friday:

Cubs -1.5 -120 (already gone)
AZ -145
Mets -1.5 -105
Tor -140
Det -115
LAA -140
Hou -1.5 -130

Most of these have more juice than I like to play, but it is what it is

Good luck

Adding LAD -155 to the Testing Plays