on3's MLB 2016 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

NYM and SEA dipped below, but still won. Only play today is

(B) LAD -185 to win 2.75 units

If line goes above -190, play RL

[J.M. Disciple]

Have a nice weekend going lets hope dodgers don't piss it away tomorrow once again.

[on3]

(C) LAD -300/-120 to win 6.83 units -- play RL

[J.M. Disciple]

So glad kershaw is on the mound. Only time I believe in Dodgers.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/2/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 27-6-0; Profit: -37.2 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 19-15; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 3-12; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 5/2/2016
(A) NYM -200/+100 to win 1 unit -- play RL
(A) STL -168 to win 1 unit
(A) TOR -145 to win 1 unit
(A) HOU -185 to win 1 unit

Filtered
(A) TOR -145 to win 1 unit

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Hopefully system makes it out if May. Very unique year so far.

[on3]

we have a 5/2 play today, hopefully we rebound. i'm cutting losses if the system ever gets to -50 units.


UPDATED for 5/3/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 30-6-0; Profit: -38.5 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 21-17; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 3-12; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 5/3/2016
(B) TOR -170 to win 2.45 units
(B) HOU -145 to win 2.85 units

Filtered
(B) TOR -170 to win 2.45 units

5/2
TOR -170 to win 5 units

[J.M. Disciple]

We haven't started the labby yet right? I think im slightly positive or worse case -2u playing RL. Labby will recoup a lot of this season. I would treat it as unofficial before may -35u or whatever it is then official plays bust out the Labby. We've been on this ship before. Always bounces back. No harm in starting with fresh lines and slowly chipping away.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/3/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +2.5 units
5/2 chase: 1-0-0; profit: +5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 21-17; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 5-12; 2-2; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 5/4/2016
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

went back over this season and tested RL based on two different money management strategies.

flat betting (always risk 1u)
-6.6u

1-3-5 (risk 1u / 3u / 5u)
-28.5u

overall record:
28 wins
43 losses

A)17 - 20
B) 6 - 14
C) 5 - 9

These numbers are all based on RL. If A bet won 1-0, 3-2, or 6-5 etc the B wager was still placed since RL lost.

I myself am up using a progressive betting strategy following RL 1u-1.5u-2u-2.5u, increasing half unit for each losing day until peak profit is reached. However, this is only short term and I will have to go back and look at some different betting strategies to see if any of them are more profitable. I also need to test the labby with this season's data to see how it would do given a 39% win percentage.

[J.M. Disciple]

ran this season's RL via labby. I averaged out the line each day so all bets are to win equal amount. Here are the #s

Profit: +1.4u
Biggest bet: risk 6u
Low point: -16.2u
High point: +1.7u

remaining labby line: 3.2u x 2

No matter how you look at this season so far
flat betting: losing
chasing: losing
labby: +1.4u

lot of work and a lot of risk for tiny profit or losing season. I think we just have to pick our spots going forward. Which is rather hard considering some of the series losses we had where teams like Mia or Phi sweep dodgers or giants etc.

[on3]

the martingale chase will be a losing proposition, the labby line will need to be implemented. but bottom line is, losing 6 series out of 38 will result in overall loss. labby line implementation will begin with these next set of series.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/5/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +2.5 units
5/2 chase: 1-0-0; profit: +5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 21-17; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 5-12; 2-2; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 10-10-10-10
(B) 10-10-10-10
(C) 10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/5/2016
watch out for (A) CHC -143 to win 1 unit

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Chc and sf right on the edge still.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/6/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +2.5 units
5/2 chase: 1-0-0; profit: +5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 21-17; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 5-12; 2-2; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 10-10-10-10
(B) 10-10-10-10
(C) 10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/6/2016
MIA and CLE are on the fence
no official plays yet

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

No plays this weekend.

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/9/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +2.5 units
5/2 chase: 1-0-0; profit: +5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 21-17; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 5-12; 2-2; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 10-10-10-10
(B) 10-10-10-10
(C) 10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/9/2016
(A) MIA -245/+100 to win 1 unit -- play RL
(A) CHC -240/-110 to win 1 unit -- play RL
(A) WAS - 182 to win 1 unit
watch out for COL, currently -142

Filtered
watch out for COL, currently -142

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/10/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 2-0-0; Profit: +.4 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +2.5 units
5/2 chase: 1-0-0; profit: +5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 23-18; 0-5
Game 2 (B) win = 5-12; 2-2; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 10-x-x-16
(B) 10-10-10-26
(C) 10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/10/2016
(A) CHC -255/-115 to win 1.3 units -- play RL
(B) COL -106 to win 1.8 units

Filtered
(B) COL -106 to win 2.6 units

5/2
COL -106 to win 5 units

[J.M. Disciple]

What happened to washington? Didn't cover RL

[alexknyc]

What happened to washington? Didn't cover RL

Wasn't a RL bet.

[on3]

Wasn't a RL bet.

but if you played it RL since you got it late, then there is a (C) bet today

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/11/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 2-0-0; Profit: -3.01 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: -.25 units
5/2 chase: 1-0-0; profit: -.3 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 23-19; 0-5
Game 2 (B) win = 5-13; 2-3; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 10-x-15-16
(B) 10-28-25-26
(C) 10-10-10-30

REGULAR FOR 5/11/2016
(B) CHC -255/-120 to win 1.8 units -- play RL
(C) COL -139 to win 2 units

Filtered
(C) COL -139 to win 4.76 units

5/2
COL -139 to win 7.3 units

[on3]

(C) CHC -192/+110 to win 2.1 units -- play RL

if line dips below -190, play ML

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/12/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 4-1-0; Profit: -5.27 units
Filtered System: 5-0-0; Profit: +4.5 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +7 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 23-19; 0-5
Game 2 (B) win = 5-13; 2-3; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 6-6; 2-0; 0-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 10-21-15-16
(B) 31-28-25-26
(C) x-10-32-21

REGULAR FOR 5/12/2016
(A) BAL -168 to win 1.3 units

Filtered
(A) BAL -168 to win 1 unit

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/13/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 5-1-0; Profit: -3.97 units
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +5.5 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +7 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 24-19; 1-5
Game 2 (B) win = 5-13; 2-3; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 7-6; 3-0; 1-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 15-15-15-15
(B) 21-10-25-30
(C) x-10-32-21

REGULAR FOR 5/13/2016
(A) WAS -170 to win 1.5 units
(A) KC -170 to win 1.5 units

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

SEA was eligible yesterday and lost. Washing and KC were both winners.(B) SEA -160 to win 2.5 units

[on3]

(c) sea -140 to win 3.7 units

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/16/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 7-2-0; Profit: -11.15 units
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +5.5 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +7 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 26-20; 1-5
Game 2 (B) win = 5-14; 2-3; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 7-7; 3-0; 1-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 25-x-x-25
(B) 31-30-35-30
(C) 40-40-35-41

REGULAR FOR 5/16/2016
(A) PIT -185 to win 2.5 units

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/17/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 8-2-0; Profit: -8.65 units
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +5.5 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +7 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 27-20; 1-5
Game 2 (B) win = 5-14; 2-3; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 7-7; 3-0; 1-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 20-x-x-20
(B) 31-30-35-30
(C) 30-30-25-31

REGULAR FOR 5/17/2016
(A) STL -185 to win 2 units (if line goes over -190, play RL)

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/18/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 8-2-0; Profit: -12.35 units
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +5.5 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +7 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 27-21; 1-5
Game 2 (B) win = 6-14; 2-3; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 7-7; 3-0; 1-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 20-x-37-20
(B) 31-40-43-49
(C) 30-30-25-31

REGULAR FOR 5/18/2016
(B) STL -160 to win 4 units (if line goes over -190, play RL)

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/19/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 9-2-0; Profit: -8.35 units
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +5.5 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +7 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 27-21; 1-5
Game 2 (B) win = 7-14; 2-3; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 7-7; 3-0; 1-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 20-x-37-20
(B) x-40-43-x
(C) 30-30-25-31

REGULAR FOR 5/19/2016
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/20/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Pre-labby Regular system: 32-6-0; Profit: -33.2 units
Labby Regular system: 9-2-0; Profit: -8.35 units
Filtered System: 6-0-0; Profit: +5.5 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +7 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 27-21; 1-5
Game 2 (B) win = 7-14; 2-3; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 7-7; 3-0; 1-0

Labby line ($20 = 1 unit)
(A) 30-30-30-30-30
(B) x-25-x-x
(C) 25-25-25-25

REGULAR FOR 5/19/2016
(A) PIT -220/+100 to win 1.5 units -- play RL
(A) PHI -170 to win 1.5 units
(A) NYM -220/+100 to win 1.5 units -- play RL
(A) STL -156 to win 1.5 units
(A) CWS -158 to win 1.5 units
watch out for HOU -141

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

5/20
pit L
phi L
nym L
stl L
cws L

5/21

pit L
phi L
nym L
stl W
cws L

5/22

nym RL C
Pit ML C
Phi ML C
CWS ML C

[J.M. Disciple]

nym RL C win
Pit ML C pending
Phi ML C win
CWS ML C win

[MrMannix]