on3's MLB 2016 Opening Day System Thread

**on3** · 04-14-16, 11:21 AM

i will not be able to post from Friday through Monday, if someone can list the plays that would be appreciated. no need to do unit calcs. 1/2 unit plays until next monday.

UPDATED for 4/14/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 12-1-0; Profit: +2.73 units
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +1 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 6-7; 0-2
Game 2 (B) win = 1-6; 0-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 5-1; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/14/2016
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 04-14-16, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Back in the black

i missed a couple plays and playing all games RL with a different money management system but feels very nice today.

how's the RL system treating you thus far?

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-14-16, 11:57 AM

Missed a couple winners but the most I was down was only 3u. Only up 1.65u now, so not very well yet. Just hoping to make around 10 units a month and call it a good season for 80 units. If I figure out one is more profitable than than the other I'll let you know. I am only playing official plays RL though so if A bet wins by 1 run i take my loss and move onto next series.

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-15-16, 11:59 AM

CHC RL (A) .5
MIA ML (A) .5
Hou ML (A) .5
STL ML (A) .5
LAD ML (A) .5

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-15-16, 10:00 PM

CHC RL (A) .5 lose .... B bet RL 2:20pm ET
MIA RL (A) .5 lose .....B bet ML 7:10pm ET
Hou RL (A) .5 lose .... B bet ML 7:10pm ET
STL ML (A) .5 win (series ended)
LAD ML (A) .5 pending

some of the teams closed above -190, so they are RL plays. Teams like Hou were ML and became RL, but only won by 1pt, so we get a chance at a B bet for 1u. If you got them ML congrats you won. Up to you if you want to double dip or not.

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-15-16, 10:03 PM

I did notice Mia and Hou both would of won -.5 first 5 innings. Some times I think system should be based on 1st 5 since most of the juice is decided based on pitcher and they only pitch 4-7 innings usually. However, it has not been back tested.

**Andy3568** · 04-16-16, 05:16 AM

I see CHC is at -320 ML. Looks like another RL bet. LOL

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-17-16, 02:41 AM

4/17 Sunday
Mia C ML
Hou C ML

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-17-16, 02:56 AM

UPDATED for 4/17/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 15-1-0; Profit: ?
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: ?
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 8-10; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 2-8; 0-3; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 5-1; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/17/2016
Mia C ML
Hou C ML

Filtered
Hou C ML

5/2
none

4/15
CHC RL (A) lose o/u 7.5
MIA RL (A) lose o/u 8
Hou RL (A) lose o/u 9.5
STL ML (A) win o/u 7.5
LAD ML (A) win o/u 6

4/16
Chc RL B win
Hou ML B lose
Mia ML B lose

Not to sure about when 5/2 starts, but maybe Hou qualifies? They were a filter play, but didn't post it. Good thing I guess if you didn't bet it.

Side note I am 8wins - 10 losses RL just under -2u based on increasing my bet size by half unit (risk) during a losing day and fall below peak profit. Tomorrow Have 2u at risk each c-bet so hopefully get a sweep and will be little more then +4u on the season for peak profit.

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-17-16, 10:38 PM

Action looks dead tomorrow. Maybe 1 series that doesn't have line up yet

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-18-16, 11:31 AM

I can't check plays due to work. The juice is going up on a few games so its going to be last minute qualification.

I did notice miami on covers was -160 but series price is +110. Gotta be extremely careful with them as they just got swept.

**Rossi58** · 04-18-16, 01:25 PM

Be careful as the Twins/Brewers series is 2 at Minnesota and then 2 at Milwaukee So no system play

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-18-16, 02:47 PM

So far only miami ML (A).5u

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-18-16, 05:55 PM

Miami officially the only play. No other game is close to -145.

**on3** · 04-19-16, 12:28 PM

UPDATED for 4/19/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 17-2-0; Profit: ?
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: ?
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 9-10; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 2-8; 0-3; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-2; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/19/2016
(A) CLE -154 to win 1 unit
(A) NYY -165 to win 1 unit
KC border, currently -140
Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 04-20-16, 12:03 PM

UPDATED for 4/20/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 19-2-0; Profit: +.35 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 11-10; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 2-8; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-2; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/20/2016
(B) NYY -140 to win 2.65 units

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 04-21-16, 12:45 PM

(C) NYY -129 to win 4.71 units

**Andy3568** · 04-22-16, 09:36 AM

Damn Yankees!

**on3** · 04-22-16, 12:10 PM

UPDATED for 4/22/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 19-3-0; Profit: -11.09 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 11-11; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 2-9; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-3; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/22/2016
(A) SF -165 to win 1 units
(A) CWS -155 to win 1 units
(A) WAS -155 to win 1 units

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 04-22-16, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Andy3568

Damn Yankees!

there's always one team responsible for multiple losses a year, i think last year it was BOS

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-22-16, 03:43 PM

Hi On3,

for playing RL on only the official plays using 1 - 1.5 - 2 - 2.5 strategy when I have a losing day the record is as follows:
9w - 17L profit (-10.6u). My bet size is up to 4u today, so if today goes bad I might have to back and look at last season to see if I want to continue down this path.

Just an update as people often bring up playing RL throughout the season instead of heavy juice on ML. Right now the two strategies are in the same boat.

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-23-16, 12:21 AM

Back in the black for me. Fantastic day for the system. Wondering if anyone knows a good site to backtest RL odds.

**imotiv8** · 04-23-16, 07:11 AM

Yea, def a great day for RL!

**on3** · 04-23-16, 11:57 AM

No plays today

**boycali01** · 04-23-16, 06:18 PM

i should follow u from beginning of season.i got sf burn last series.

**on3** · 04-25-16, 12:32 PM

UPDATED for 4/25/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 22-3-0; Profit: -8.09 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 14-11; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 2-9; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-3; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/25/2016
(A) NYM -193/+105 to win 1 units -- play RL
(A) SF -185 to win 1 units
(A) TOR -175 to win 1 units
DET and SEA are borderline

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 04-25-16, 02:52 PM

deleted

**on3** · 04-26-16, 11:51 AM

SEA made the cut last night

UPDATED for 4/26/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 25-3-0; Profit: -5.09 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-12; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 2-9; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-3; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/26/2016
(B) TOR -105 to win 2.75 units
(A) WAS -190/+110 to win 1 unit - play RL
(A) CHC -200/+100 to win 1 unit -- play RL

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 04-27-16, 12:01 PM

UPDATED for 4/27/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 25-3-0; Profit: -11.73 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-14; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 2-10; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-3; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/27/2016
(C) TOR -140 to win 5.64 units
(B) WAS -196/+100 to win 2 units - play RL
(B) CHC -360/-140 to win 2 units -- play RL

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 04-28-16, 11:52 AM

rough start to the year, yeesh.

UPDATED for 4/28/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 25-4-0; Profit: -21.63 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-14; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 2-11; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-4; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/28/2016
(C) WAS -150 to win 3 units
(B) CHC -360/-140 to win 2 units -- play RL

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**takethepnts** · 04-28-16, 11:43 PM

FKN Havoc. White Sox sweep Jays, Nats get swept by Philly- Bats fell asleep for a series, and now Dodgers swept by Miami? Books made a Killing!

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-29-16, 05:10 AM

5 series tomorrow if juice stays the same. 1 early game.

**on3** · 04-29-16, 12:15 PM

UPDATED for 4/29/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 25-5-0; Profit: -24.13 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +1.5 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-14; 0-3
Game 2 (B) win = 3-11; 1-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-5; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/29/2016
(A) CHC -290/-130 to win 1 unit -- play RL
(A) PIT -147 to win 1 unit
(A) NYM -147 to win 1 unit
(A) LAD -178 to win 1 unit
(A) SEA -154 to win 1 unit

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-29-16, 01:31 PM

I'm waiting on nym and pit as line as dropped.

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-29-16, 04:38 PM

Arizona game is rising @ -144 right now on covers so they might qualify.

Ignore line is around -135... Not sure what I was looking at.