Saturday - Pair of 5's Sir

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 05:53 AM

Contrarian Radar

Good early morning gentlemen, welcome to Saturday's card. The old contrarian radar is off to an early start. The Oakland Athletics get a look from the contrarians, as they continue their cellar performance (not stellar performance). Oakland has been disadvantaged, with their starting schedule against hot teams. Contrarian indicators relating to their losing 5 streak, and Tampa is a road favorite for the second night in a row after beating the A's last night.

Oh yea, A's stand for, Awsome Contrarian Selection (that's freakin stupid)

I will report later to make a final selection. RADAR RADAR

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 07:31 AM

Contrarian Radar II

The Detroit Tigers go on the radar screen. The "WOW, KC is hot hype is taking hold with the public and the linesmakers. The narrow line is a classic contrarian indicator that tilts us for a possible pull the trigger.

This potential selection will fill out our Double Dog Contrarian Play. In review, the DD Contrarian Play is two valued dogs, looking to cash at least one, in order to turn a profit.

I will report later, if it's a go.

Vonnegut · 04-25-09, 07:34 AM

Like the Tigers today too my friend. Lets cash this puppy.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 07:38 AM

Give a look at the Athletics. They have had a challenging schedule to date.

jellobiafra · 04-25-09, 09:10 AM

The A's would worry me today. I just have a feeling that Tampa might be in the process of turning a corner. Just a gut feeling on that one that steers me away from the A's.

The Tigers on the other hand feels like a good play. I expected to see the Royals as a little heavier favorite last night and was surprised by the inviting line being offered. They are hot though, that's for certain. Last night they had a nearly packed Kaufman Stadium. It's been a long drought, but baseball is finally starting to take hold again in that town. There's a obviously a buzz beginning in KC. They're starting to get that feel about them similar to the Rays last year, imo. I sense big things in their future. Just maybe not tonight though.

Vonnegut · 04-25-09, 10:52 AM

I think Kyle Davies gets smoked today by the Tigs. That Detroit lineup is pretty solid 1-9 and I think Miner is good enough to keep them atleast in it. Like Detroit today as a road dog.
I just cant lay any money down on Oakland right now. Their lineup doesnt look good and their big guns are getting the hits. Tampa on the other hand looks like they are just getting warmed up and Garza is a class pitcher.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 11:05 AM

Selection

We are posting the Double Dog Contrarian Play for Saturday:

Tigers +107
Athletics +103

Beware O Contrare

Vonnegut · 04-25-09, 11:07 AM

Good luck Pair, hope I am wrong about Oakland, they are in a good position to steal one at home today, hopefully some of the big bats (Cust and Giambi) wakes up today.

jellobiafra · 04-25-09, 11:12 AM

Good luck on both of these Pair. I won't be playing either. As you saw in a previous post of mine, I'm trying something different for now. More a method to control the amount of bets I'm placing rather than the amount of money I'm wagering. I'm finding reasons to play way too many game. I need to find a reason to play just a few, and a money management system might be just what I need.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Good luck on both of these Pair. I won't be playing either. As you saw in a previous post of mine, I'm trying something different for now. More a method to control the amount of bets I'm placing rather than the amount of money I'm wagering. I'm finding reasons to play way too many game. I need to find a reason to play just a few, and a money management system might be just what I need.

As you know from following my threads, I don't play many games and I do employ a 3% percent Kelly wager. However, good luck with your betting pursuits. Looking forward to chatting again.

jellobiafra · 04-25-09, 01:18 PM

Yes, you seem to have a solid grasp on money management and restraint. I enjoy your posts. I feel a little silly admitting this but I don't really know what a Kelly wagering system entails. I've seen it bandied about here quite a bit but have never really been able to nail down the fundamentals.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Yes, you seem to have a solid grasp on money management and restraint. I enjoy your posts. I feel a little silly admitting this but I don't really know what a Kelly wagering system entails. I've seen it bandied about here quite a bit but have never really been able to nail down the fundamentals.

Mathematically, it is very confusing, you should see the spreadsheet that they sent me on it. In the SBR Think Tank, one of the guys does a video to explain the fundamentals as it relates to everyday probabilities. It is rather good. However after the mathematical craziness, it works out to no more than 2 to 4 percent of your bankroll depending on the edge you have on a particular wager. For me, I have my bankroll, I take 3% of that on any particular wager. I will let you know, there is an occasion where I will have a load up play, thus getting away from the 3% model. It will hold you up, when things are going to the negative. Perhaps you should give it a try. You can even apply it to wagering on many games.

jellobiafra · 04-25-09, 01:31 PM

So just to clarify (because I'm not going to be able to sustain interest in the mathematical minutea either), you bet 2-3% of your roll on every wager, but do you calculate the percentage before placing each individual bet? For instance, if my roll is $1000 I would obviously bet $30 on the 1st wager....if I'm betting two games that go off at the same time would my 2nd wager be 3% of the original $1000 (since I haven't lost anything yet) or 3% of the adjusted amount of $970? If it's the adjusted then you are in essence weighting your bets, which I don't necessarily think is wrong. Seems like you would want to place them in order of perceived strength of you are making multiple wagers at the same time.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

So just to clarify (because I'm not going to be able to sustain interest in the mathematical minutea either), you bet 2-3% of your roll on every wager, but do you calculate the percentage before placing each individual bet? For instance, if my roll is $1000 I would obviously bet $30 on the 1st wager....if I'm betting two games that go off at the same time would my 2nd wager be 3% of the original $1000 (since I haven't lost anything yet) or 3% of the adjusted amount of $970? If it's the adjusted then you are in essence weighting your bets, which I don't necessarily think is wrong. Seems like you would want to place them in order of perceived strength of you are making multiple wagers at the same time.

You could go to that amount of trouble. However, don't make yourself crazy. Use the 3% model as a guideline. In your example, let's say you have 4 selections going off at 8:00 PM, take 3% on each. Let's say we start with 1000 bananas. Four bets @30. Now the banroll is at 880. Your next bank of wagers whether 1 selection or not, will use 3% of 880. Remember, don't get cosumed with Kelly wager to the tee. Use it as a working parameter.

jellobiafra · 04-25-09, 01:49 PM

Gotcha. Sounds pretty simple when you put it that way. Just always bet 3% of your bankroll. Surprised they'd even attribute someone's name to that and call it a system.

Just kidding. I know it's named after the person who created a calculator to apply to financial investments (not betting on sports). I'm sure it's much more detailed and complicated and nerdy than this in theory, and I'm glad you streamlined it for me right down to the nitty gritty. Thanks.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 01:54 PM

My early wager were risking 114, if they both fail, my next bank of wagers will 107 based on our conversation.

jellobiafra · 04-25-09, 08:01 PM

No more nitpicking your selections for now 5's. You're really starting to heat up. I'll be on your ass like a virgin on his prom date tomorrow.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-25-09, 08:57 PM

It's Official

The Double Dog Contrarian Play hits on all cylinders for the Contrarios. Let's recap today's selections:

Tigers +107 (W)
Athletics +103 (W)

Things are rolling. A shout out goes to Jellobiafra, an ardent contrarian supporter. I hope Jello you are grasping the money management part of this game.

See ya tomorrow.

One small step for man, one giant leap for the Contrarios.

jellobiafra · 04-25-09, 09:11 PM

Thanks for the shout. lol.

And no, I'm not yet grasping the money management. Couldn't help myself from shotgunning the board again tonight. Right now, it looks like I'm going to probably end up right about where I started the day - despite winning a big NBA play and one of my 3 original picks from last night MIN reverse run line cashing with ease. Why can't I learn to just play a select few games?

I'm going to give it another shot tomorrow. Like I said I will be keeping a keen eye on your thread. And I'll cull 1 or 2 games of my own that I really like from the batch and try....TRY to limit myself to 3-4 baseball plays tomorrow. Lord give me strength.

Nice job today 5's.