CK's Daily Baseball Thread Leans for Wednesday 4/15/09

[TheLemonDropKid]

Value, Lemon Drop, value

Please don't take this the wrong way cuz you know I got mad love for ya brutha.......but wouldn't taking the 1st Half in a baseball game be similar to buying a hook or points in basketball?

Value is value......but I know that you're one to spend a little extra to make a win a win.

Or am I way off?

[camel]

Nice call on the Marlins CK... tailed you for the past 2 days for a very healthy return!

[cocknocker]

Fishies bay-bee!

[kmarinouofm]

way to go fish.. that team over 3.5 cashed in huge!!! got the money line and the run line as well!!

[Dexter]

thur-

cliff lee is in no way shape or form, as good as he was last year. we're finding that out early on in 2009. on the flip side, cc looked great in his last start - with the velocity back up to 94-95. will he make the new yankee stadium, the house that CC built? ha

-yankees (RL) (big-2x)

john danks has a career era/whip of 3.19/1.19 vs the TB, and the sox are 3-0 in games hes started at TB. last years 2 trips to tb, resulted in 13ip/1er. niemann is an overrated prospect b/c of his size, and has furture closer written all over him. his time in the rays rotation will be short lived. hammered in his first start - expect much of the same by Quentin and the sox.

-whitesox (ML)

[pho3nix32]

Marlins+160[/B]
Rockies+180 Marquis will keep it close
Padres+160

thanks for another positive day CK

[Kav]

YESSSSSSSSSS what a day!

3-0 in baseball, last bet of the night...

SUNS/WARRIORS under 239!!! im feeling this one BIG!

congrats to everyone who hit florida! great night!

[cocknocker]

Tomorrow, I like the Mariners. Felix should never be on the other end of a -150 line.

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

Colorado +175

GL

Been out all night... Looks like we all cashed on this... I also put a little scratch on the sensei's CLE play...

[Dexter]

Tomorrow, I like the Mariners. Felix should never be on the other end of a -150 line.

i dont think hes pitching. was thinking the same thing, then i saw in a few sports that rowland smith is throwing. no way felix is plus 130 at home in this spot.

same with danks - i see colon in a few places as well.

[Dexter]

Been out all night... Looks like we all cashed on this... I also put a little scratch on the sensei's CLE play...

nah, i was the only idiot. but at least playing the run line paid off! lol

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

Washington +114 (don't usually buck a streak but too many other factors point to a Nats win)
Houston -109
Toronto +120

GL to all!

Rollin Rollin Rollin....

[Dexter]

thanks for another positive day CK

you dont follow baseball phx3?

[Jimbo42]

nah, i was the only idiot. but at least playing the run line paid off! lol

I'm glad you got that run line bro... Dude ur pitching analysis are awesome... keep it up...

[cocknocker]

i dont think hes pitching. was thinking the same thing, then i saw in a few sports that rowland smith is throwing. no way felix is plus 130 at home in this spot.

same with danks - i see colon in a few places as well.

Well if he isn't then it's a NO PLAY for me.

[Jimbo42]

Yea Dex.. you were right on with ur analysis of Ubaldo Jimenez the other day... such an awesome arm... but he has to reel it in... and he goes out and walks a bunch of batters in that loss to CUBS...

[Dexter]

yeah - randy johnson was crazy wild when he was younger, then turned out to have pinpoint control. doubt it happens with jiminez, but hes young.

[danrman]

showtime smokin w/ his nhl picks..

[danrman]

So... you're saying Carpenter faked the injury to be better prepared/rested to face the Cubs five days from now?

if carpenter doesnt show up for the start sunday night on espn then obviously he really was hurt but i've seen pitchers tank or not really fake injuries but err on the side of caution before a big game..

[Dexter]

if carpenter doesnt show up for the start sunday night on espn then obviously he really was hurt but i've seen pitchers tank or not really fake injuries but err on the side of caution before a big game..

dan - you really feel that strongly that carpenter and the cards viewed an april game as a "big game"?

i'll be honest dan - o...i cant recall ever seeing a pitcher tank before a big game. why would they want to throw less innings, and screw up their routine? throwing 30 pitches before your next game would completely throw off your schedule.

[cocknocker]

Hmm, I got these picks so far:

Detroit ml (-175)
Detroit +1.5 (-280)
Detroit -1.5 (+115)

Okay let me get this straight.. You made a wager for -175, and -280 on the same game? Please tell me how this makes ANY sense. You would have done better not even listing those idiot wagers. Whatever happened to being smart and justplaying the +115 wager if you had such strong feelings about the game? You cut deeply ino your profits. You are headed for the poor house if you keep that up. Cutting -455 from +115 leaves you with a negative EV of -340. What a stupid set of plays

[Dexter]

Hmm, I got these picks so far:

Detroit ml (-175)
Detroit +1.5 (-280)
Detroit -1.5 (+115)

yeah, im confused...

[cocknocker]

Talk about cutting into your profits. I can't believe this guy had the nerve to post that on a thread as strong as this one is. He is dragging down our credibility with this kind of shit. I don't think that i have ever seen a more stupid play by a person who procalims to be good at this thing of ours.

[cocknocker]

-340 EV...This guy needs help

[j0hnnyv]

wow what a stoonahd.

[laxdjock]

Eh, 3-1....stupid SF walked in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth.

FL +153 ML, 1 unit
TOR +`132 ML, 1 unit
SEA o3.5 -120, 1.2 units
SF ML +141 ML, 1 unit

[suicidekings]

On a side note, I'm playing around with a new stats system model that's been doing very well in recent days. I fully expect this to fall apart completely once I start posting the picks, but just to see what happens:

April 15:
Strong: MIL, DET, PHI, FLO, BOS
Medium: STL, CLE, BAL, TB, TOR
Weak: HOU, NYM, COL, LAA, LAD

All picks were made prior to game time, but we'll discount the games that have already started/ended (to be fair) leaving 9 more games today. Let's see what happens...

Day 1 of posting the computer's picks went pretty well, going 11-3-1 overall, and 5-3-1 in games that started after I posted them. I'm not actually wagering based on this system, but I thought keeping a public record would be interesting. The model was finished on Monday and since then it's gone 26-9-2 (70.3%), which means it'll probably nose dive any day now. In that same time frame I've gone 9-7 (56.3%), so technically, it's kicking my ass right now...

[johnnymapalo]

-340 EV...This guy needs help

Wait, this is what you sent me to look at. Guy, do you know how much I wagered on each bet. I do not wager the same amounts on each bet. Some bets are higher than others. I always place the lowest amount on the -1.5 and -2.5 runlines when I play them. I place more money on the moneylines and +1.5 just incase I lose by 1 at the end then I at least win something. You don't place my bets so don't tell me how much I wagered on each game..