MLB - Sunday, 8/23/15

Vinnie Paz · 08-23-15, 08:37 AM

Any 100%ers ?

Brooklyn Dick · 08-23-15, 08:38 AM

Anything for the 60 Percenter's today LT? Thanks.

jjgold · 08-23-15, 08:39 AM

Zona been fukkin killing me

Very hot team

Unders risky with heat now and tired arms

BeanTownClown88 · 08-23-15, 09:03 AM

LT are you not a big believer in the sweep theory? ...I want to take AZ but reds have decent home pitcher going and lost the first 3 games and are at home

Vinnie Paz · 08-23-15, 09:09 AM

Yeah I kinda like refs too FF. Chase is fuckin garbage.

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick

Anything for the 60 Percenter's today LT? Thanks.

Sorry I forgot. Here we go:

Yankees 62% (-163)
Baltimore 65% (-186)
Dodgers 65% (-186)
Cubs 65% (-186)
Pittsburgh 62% (-163)

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by BeanTownClown88

LT are you not a big believer in the sweep theory? ...I want to take AZ but reds have decent home pitcher going and lost the first 3 games and are at home

No I couldn't care less, look at each game on its own merit.

TheChamp1 · 08-23-15, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Sorry I forgot. Here we go:

Yankees 62% (-163)
Baltimore 65% (-186)
Dodgers 65% (-186)
Cubs 65% (-186)
Pittsburgh 62% (-163)

It's hard to bet the Dodgers right now even if their % was 99

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by TheChamp1

It's hard to bet the Dodgers right now even if their % was 99

65% is typically LOW for a Kershaw start, so offensive struggles are built in. -170 is actually pretty decent on real line if you don't mind betting big favorites (something that I don't do).

TheChamp1 · 08-23-15, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

65% is typically LOW for a Kershaw start, so offensive struggles are built in. -170 is actually pretty decent on real line if you don't mind betting big favorites (something that I don't do).

I've got a Yankees/Cubs parlay. Whatcha think?

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by TheChamp1

I've got a Yankees/Cubs parlay. Whatcha think?

Yankees look fine but not Cubs since they are higher than -186. And I would never recommend parlays.

Vinnie Paz · 08-23-15, 10:24 AM

Why dbacks though? I wanna lock in cincy ff but now you got me shook lol

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

4 MLB Plays Sunday

YTD: 446-409-21, +74.89

This is my ACTUAL record, note my post in yesterday's thread (Saturday) where I mistakenly typed "OVER" when I had an "UNDER" and stated that simple search of Line History worry would confirm that my odds on the play were on the Under. I will leave my record as is (Actual based on my bets) unless there is enough objection that I should change Win to a Loss on SBR record?

thebettingman15 · 08-23-15, 10:37 AM

what are your thoughts on Minnesota at +150? I think Pelfrey is the better pitcher in this matchup

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Why dbacks though? I wanna lock in cincy ff but now you got me shook lol

I only get Reds 52% (-108). Not much difference in the pitchers and YTD offense, Arizona grades out better in recent offense vs. rightes. Feels to me like +120 (at the time) on close to a toss-up.

thesalesman15 · 08-23-15, 10:45 AM

%'s on rangers and tampa bay?

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by thebettingman15

what are your thoughts on Minnesota at +150? I think Pelfrey is the better pitcher in this matchup

See Post #7, Baltimore 65% (-186)

Gausman as been much better at home his entire brief career.

thebettingman15 · 08-23-15, 10:46 AM

so since its a 60% you wouldnt play against it?

R.P. McMurphy · 08-23-15, 10:46 AM

Curious what's your #'s on Tex/Detroit Lt? Thanks bol

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by thesalesman15

%'s on rangers and tampa bay?

Texas just 54% (-117) (but I am still having trouble pulling trigger on dead Tigers)
Tampa Bay 53% (-113), no real value either way.

thebettingman15 · 08-23-15, 10:50 AM

Arizona at +110 ok?

BeanTownClown88 · 08-23-15, 10:51 AM

Good shit LT..bol

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by thebettingman15

so since its a 60% you wouldnt play against it?

Sure I would, if actual odds are higher than model odds. I only post the 60%ers as an FYI because I was asked to.

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by thebettingman15

Arizona at +110 ok?

No, note model odds of +108. Would want at least +118.

thebettingman15 · 08-23-15, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Sure I would, if actual odds are higher than model odds. I only post the 60%ers as an FYI because I was asked to.

i'm not quite sure i follow...

thesalesman15 · 08-23-15, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Texas just 54% (-117) (but I am still having trouble pulling trigger on dead Tigers)
Tampa Bay 53% (-113), no real value either way.

thanks brother

eddycash · 08-23-15, 10:55 AM

So Saturday one of the total plays was backwards? That blows

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by thebettingman15

so since its a 60% you wouldnt play against it?

Talking specifically about Twins game, "value" appears to be on O's -170ish, but I just don't lay those types of odds. Would take over +200 (which will certainly not happen) to consider Twins.

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by eddycash

So Saturday one of the total plays was backwards? That blows

Yeah I posted specifics in last post of Saturday thread. Shitty I know.

eddycash · 08-23-15, 10:57 AM

Since lines shift so often from the overnight plays, it takes too much energy to go back and research line movement on each play just to verify it is the actual correct play that you have provided.

eddycash · 08-23-15, 10:58 AM

Drink more coffee and stay sharper

thebettingman15 · 08-23-15, 10:59 AM

I am with you, can't pull trigger on Detroit. Cabrera, and Victor Martinez have both had success against hamels. Also Fielder is out of lineup which is definitely an advantage towards Detroit. Makes their lineup much weaker and not as deep.

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by thebettingman15

i'm not quite sure i follow...

Model has O's -186. So model says Twins have no value but would at better than +200.

LT Profits · 08-23-15, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by eddycash

Since lines shift so often from the overnight plays, it takes too much energy to go back and research line movement on each play just to verify it is the actual correct play that you have provided.

Takes two seconds on SBR Odds. That doesn't excuse me though, it was a STUPID STUPID mistake. I think first time I did that.