MLB - Tuesday, 8/18/15

[innovation]

royals and Volquez are now the dog......don't mind if I do

[riffraff24]

Mt $ 0.02. Since the break, Toronto has played 9 away games, and gone over 8 a total of 2X. BOL. I know you didn't ask me.

Still welcome your feedback brutha. Youre like 1 of 5 people on here I like lol

[44 Mag]

Still welcome your feedback brutha. Youre like 1 of 5 people on here I like lol

Well Riff, BOL .

[HockeyRocks]

LT....Reds now -120 at 5Dimes. Still a play??? Thanks in advance..

[klemopixx]

Blue Jays
Orioles
Cubs

[LT Profits]

LT....Reds now -120 at 5Dimes. Still a play??? Thanks in advance..

NOOOOO. Stay away now.

[LT Profits]

I like Det Ml and Sf esp with Jason prob being out with Hamstring Vog can work thru that lineup min damage

I went ahead and added Giants

[getlucky2win]

LT u play any props? like total r+h+e or score in 1st? im considering undr 27.5 rhe -115 in mia v mil

[LT Profits]

Liking the over in Toronto/Philly game. Any thoughts there?

I actually added the Under. Remember, knuckleballs dance more in humid weather

[thebettingman15]

LT, can you list 3 of your plays that you are most confident in

[LT Profits]

2 More MLB Additions

10 MLB Plays Tuesday

Blue Jays / Phillies UNDER 8 +105 (Heritage)
Orioles +103 (5 Dimes)
Mets / Orioles OVER 7.5 +107 (5 Dimes)
Reds +106 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +151 (Heritage)
Marlins +129 (5 Dimes)
Marlins / Brewers UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Rays +113 (5 Dimes)
Giants +137 (Heritage)
Dodgers / Athletics OVER 6.5 -103 (5 Dimes)

[RavensFan2k3]

Hot as hell here in philly tnite. Balls will be flying all over the place

Major sausage fest

[RavensFan2k3]

NOOOOO. Stay away now.

So you agree Royals is the play now

[LT Profits]

So you agree Royals is the play now

No, Reds were the play at + money. Now no value at all.

[LT Profits]

LT, can you list 3 of your plays that you are most confident in

I never do that because all bets are same amount.

[RavensFan2k3]

No, Reds were the play at + money. Now no value at all.

I guess we agree to disagree

[44 Mag]

I actually added the Under. Remember, knuckleballs dance more in humid weather

When they work ????

[LT Profits]

When they work ????

Well, Humidity helps them work.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

With you on the Orioles and Tigers; good luck.

[getlucky2win]

LT u play any props? like total r+h+e or score in 1st? im considering undr 27.5 rhe -115 in mia v mil

bump. lt did u miss my post? or did i do somethin to offend u and im gettin the silent treatment

[Ra77er]

lucky that's difficult to assess for modelers right? Or I mean for average modelers that do not necessarily have a math background to apply formulas to asses value in props. I am not speaking for LT but I know I do not have that capability personally.

Just eyeballing it though I think it's a good bet.

[getlucky2win]

thanks. i have little experience with models. but have been trying to learn. any advice is appreciated

[mth61]

Well it's somewhat an arbitrary approach but basically over time hits to runs are a 2 to 1 figure. Teams average around 0.7 error a game. So if you say you like a game that's u7.5 and the HRE is 27.5, it is safe to assume that you would like the under prop as well

[Ra77er]

Well I also like the prop from my eye because miami actually plays defense and both of the offenses are mediocre combined at best but that is just the eyeball like I said.

Good post though Math.

[bet-clever]

Giants @2.35

[tecmoslayer]

Terrible read on that Phillies Under

[BXbomber11]

Terrible read on that Phillies Under

What an incredible observation after four innings

[LT Profits]

Got to love profitable splits, the beauty of betting + odds.

5-5, +1.27

[LT Profits]

bump. lt did u miss my post? or did i do somethin to offend u and im gettin the silent treatment

Sorry, yeah I skimmed right over your post. I do not play many props any more although I probably could if I really wanted to. Just don't want to add any more work and probably best to start looking at stiff like RHE from the beginning of the season and not in midstream.

[mth61]

Got to love profitable splits, the beauty of betting + odds.

5-5, +1.27

Great stuff LT, seemed like my system is pretty close to yours, would love to chat and feel free to check out my new thread

-O.C.

[wfoster2]

Thanks for everything you do!

[Ghenghis Kahn]

60 %ers:

Yankees 63% (-170)
Toronto 61% (-156)
Pittsburgh 66% (-194)
Washington 60% (-150)
Dodgers 69% (-223)
San Diego 64% (-178)

Toronto actually looks low, Phillies might be good at big odds at home.

$50.00	$685.37	$0.00	Loss	6 Team Parlay
					Win	8/18/15 7:05pm MLB Baseball 902 Pittsburgh Pirates -195* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (C Anderson - R must Start F Liriano - L must Start)
					Win	8/18/15 8:40pm MLB Baseball 907 Washington Nationals -150* vs Colorado Rockies (J Zimmermann - R must Start D Hale - R must Start)
					Win	8/18/15 10:10pm MLB Baseball 910 San Diego Padres -190* vs Atlanta Braves (M Wisler - R must Start J Shields - R must Start)
					Win	8/18/15 7:05pm MLB Baseball 912 New York Yankees -151* vs Minnesota Twins (M Pelfrey - R must Start C Sabathia - L must Start)
					Win	8/18/15 7:05pm MLB Baseball 921 Toronto Blue Jays -166* vs Philadelphia Phillies (R Dickey - R must Start A Nola - R must Start)
					Loss	8/18/15 10:05pm MLB Baseball 929 Los Angeles Dodgers -230* vs Oakland Athletics (C Kershaw - L must Start F Doubront - L must Start)

dodgers won't go anywhere with that bullpen. how could they be worse than last year?

[Big Bear]

$50.00	$685.37	$0.00	Loss	6 Team Parlay
					Win	8/18/15 7:05pm MLB Baseball 902 Pittsburgh Pirates -195* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (C Anderson - R must Start F Liriano - L must Start)
					Win	8/18/15 8:40pm MLB Baseball 907 Washington Nationals -150* vs Colorado Rockies (J Zimmermann - R must Start D Hale - R must Start)
					Win	8/18/15 10:10pm MLB Baseball 910 San Diego Padres -190* vs Atlanta Braves (M Wisler - R must Start J Shields - R must Start)
					Win	8/18/15 7:05pm MLB Baseball 912 New York Yankees -151* vs Minnesota Twins (M Pelfrey - R must Start C Sabathia - L must Start)
					Win	8/18/15 7:05pm MLB Baseball 921 Toronto Blue Jays -166* vs Philadelphia Phillies (R Dickey - R must Start A Nola - R must Start)
					Loss	8/18/15 10:05pm MLB Baseball 929 Los Angeles Dodgers -230* vs Oakland Athletics (C Kershaw - L must Start F Doubront - L must Start)

dodgers won't go anywhere with that bullpen. how could they be worse than last year?

i had a very similar parlay

why wasnt Jansen pitching instead of Baez in that save situation up 4-1?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

jansen is a closer, not a setup guy, he rarely pitches in the 8th.

[Big Bear]

jansen is a closer, not a setup guy, he rarely pitches in the 8th.

yeah i forgot it was the 8th inning that the debacle happened...

good point. Damn they still should have pulled Baez sooner!