friday mlb discussion and plays thread

[2daBank]

got off work early today so figured i would mess with card and post bout it till i leave for weekend. my dog of the day been cold as shit and until yesterday i been sliding all week overall but got nice chunk back going hard on cards and jays, hate doing that but this been my most frustrating week all season, luckily it worked out, lol..

anyways it be nice to take that and churn out a nice card tonight as ill prob not be around much next 2 days so lets see wtf we all can come up with

not sure where the mil line gonna go but i like brew crew with anything plus in this gm. nelson kinda under the radar imo as he capable of being pretty good so i like backing him as a dog quite a bit. dbags tagged him earlier in year with a few homers but they been cold of late and he has been pitching well. i dont know the numbers for mil vs lefties but i know ive always liked this lineup vs lefty starters, i think they can do some damage to corbin and while zona pen been good lately they are anything but so that is sure not to last and corbin has not shown the ability to get late into gms for some time,. they probably my DOD but i was thinking i might get +120 and now line dipping so gonna just wait and hope it moves back to +110/+115 at least..

really hard not to like the under in cle. both pitchers qs machines with great histories vs these respective lineups and neither gets much support. seems like it take some bad luck to go over 7 in what looks like a 3-2 type gm, hopefully we dont see a team tie at 3 and turn into a push at best would be my only concern cause i hate once your best case is a push! lol

if id have looked at open there a very good chance id have played the fish, 1st thought on that number is cashner way overpriced, if ya dont know i have bet on him and lost more than any pitcher all year! lol. that said i think if this gets down around -120 i like the pads and cashner who i have swore off for some time now, he a very strange one that cashner. lately his k/bb ratio has looked much worse yet the end result has been better as he has become far more efficient and not as prone to that huge inning. think he can hold down fish to 2-3 runs over 7 innings and pads can manage to get haren out a little quicker and much like the dbags pen the fish pen been pretty good recently but i know far too well that wont last.. \
kinda funny when i think bout this gm, ive lost more times backing cashner than any starter on the season and it not even close. on the other hand fish pen has lost more leads when i bet on them than any other pen by far. lmao. something gotta give and fact i believe in cashners ability and i dont buy fish pen for one second i think pads getting 4-5 runs far more likely than fish..

those the only gms ive looked at so far,. ill add as i go, feel free to chime in bout these or any gm you like something about, just dont waste my time w/o some logic worth discussing

[2daBank]

i thought the opener was crazy in STL, now cooney is -180 something? and cards are facing a left hander so odds of them giving him much support are far lesser than they would be against a rhp.. atl just a team i dont get involved with much or pay attention too, can they hit a guy that i promise isnt all that impressive stuff wise? and how bad is the atl pen? that a concern for sure

[EVfollower]

i thought the opener was crazy in STL, now cooney is -180 something? and cards are facing a left hander so odds of them giving him much support are far lesser than they would be against a rhp.. atl just a team i dont get involved with much or pay attention too, can they hit a guy that i promise isnt all that impressive stuff wise? and how bad is the atl pen? that a concern for sure

Also in the same mindset. The pitcher isn't that good and -180 is a pretty steep price for mediocre pitching. However ATL everytime I bet them they fail to produce any runs. Maybe the under 7.5 but IDK.

[EVfollower]

To be honest, the only thing last night that caught my eye was WASH at -110 but now that value is gone. Don't know what else to touch and don't feel like "forcing anything" as I won't even be home tonight to watch the games as I got a hot date haha.

[EVfollower]

Another play I did see last night was Miami at +130. Haren still ain't the best pitcher and Cashner easily better however he never gets any run support from the padres. But again, I was too tired to lock in anything last night and the value is gone in Miami I think at +115.



I do see a play that might be worth touching - the over 6.5 in the BAL/TB game. Don't see why its 6.5 as this is the AL and Archer bad lifetime vs Os while Tillman could easily regress after having been so successful last month or so.

[2daBank]

Another play I did see last night was Miami at +130. Haren still ain't the best pitcher and Cashner easily better however he never gets any run support from the padres. But again, I was too tired to lock in anything last night and the value is gone in Miami I think at +115.



I do see a play that might be worth touching - the over 6.5 in the BAL/TB game. Don't see why its 6.5 as this is the AL and Archer bad lifetime vs Os while Tillman could easily regress after having been so successful last month or so.

i would have prob bet fish last night. now i actually think value on pads and i do like their chances better than my initial thoughts of hating casner, lol..

o's have clocked archer a little. im scared to death of overs at the trop as tampons tend to forget how to score when returning home. hell they didnt score much in philly which a bandbox and trotting out suspect pitchers.

[Big Bear]

good luck

[EVfollower]

Detroit ML +125 is worth a look at also. I booked Detroit and the over 6.5 at +100 in TB/Os game for 2 units each.

Deposited $300 and took a big bonus with 12x roll and only $1000 left to wager...hard not to just throw out plays to get it done today haha but gonna finish it probably tomorrow or sunday. Balance at around $1600 and would like to keep it there.

[BOA12]

BEAR where do reside

[44 Mag]

To be honest, the only thing last night that caught my eye was WASH at -110 but now that value is gone. Don't know what else to touch and don't feel like "forcing anything" as I won't even be home tonight to watch the games as I got a hot date haha.

OK. I grabbed washington at -114. Some numbers to bring to the table here, if I may.
Max is 10-8 with a 2.09 second in all of MLB and a 0.80 WHIP first in MLB.
Away from home he is 6-3 with a miniscule 1.57 ERA and a .179 BA against.
his only game vs. Pitt was his no-hitter, with 10K's and 0 walks.
Mr. Locke is 5-6 with a 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.41, not exactly very note worthy.
He is 3-3 at home with a pretty good ERA of only 2.58.
Now I couldn't find ant stats on him vs. washington, but against the NL he is 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA.
Pitching edge obvious: Washington.
Now I know the Nat's have a few key hitters out out on injury, but with the decent pitching match up runs are going to be at a premium. I think washington can squeeze out just enough to get by a very good pirates team here tonight.
I am personally going with washington.
Any feed back would be appreciated.

[EVfollower]

OK. I grabbed washington at -114. Some numbers to bring to the table here, if I may.
Max is 10-8 with a 2.09 second in all of MLB and a 0.80 WHIP first in MLB.
Away from home he is 6-3 with a miniscule 1.57 ERA and a .179 BA against.
his only game vs. Pitt was his no-hitter, with 10K's and 0 walks.
Mr. Locke is 5-6 with a 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.41, not exactly very note worthy.
He is 3-3 at home with a pretty good ERA of only 2.58.
Now I couldn't find ant stats on him vs. washington, but against the NL he is 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA.
Pitching edge obvious: Washington.
Now I know the Nat's have a few key hitters out out on injury, but with the decent pitching match up runs are going to be at a premium. I think washington can squeeze out just enough to get by a very good pirates team here tonight.
I am personally going with washington.
Any feed back would be appreciated.

Always been against locke, he's one of those pitchers I would always describe as "lucky". However pirates have been consistently good at home. If I could get a first 5 inning # at -115 or better for WASH I'd be all over that. Relief and closing wise, pirates definitely have the edge for that when it comes to pitching. Just checked - WASH is -145 1st 5 innings so books are feeling the same way as me, with the 2nd half favorite definitely going to Pirates. Will be an interesting game to watch but most likely a no play for me unless WASH goes back to -110 or better.

Also somewhat noteworthy, I threw half a unit ($50) on YES run scored in 1st inning for the MIL/ARZ game...I never bet props but both pitchers not great and Brewers pitcher ERA in the 1st inning alone is 9+. So I like my chances of a run coming in. Of course it can't really be an official play as props long term are -EV in almost all cases but consider it.

[2daBank]

thing bout that for me mag and i havnt gotten into this gm but when i do ill give all Locke's numbers a upgrade due to the lineup he facing. his performances this year have been greatly dictated by teams ability to hit lefties, he has mostly struggled against strong lefty hitting teams and had bunch of very good outings vs teams that struggle. nats hitting right around the mendoza line and barely scoring 2 runs a gm off lefties. buccos with adv late if max pitches well and leaves with it tied 2-2..

[44 Mag]

thing bout that for me mag and i havnt gotten into this gm but when i do ill give all Locke's numbers a upgrade due to the lineup he facing. his performances this year have been greatly dictated by teams ability to hit lefties, he has mostly struggled against strong lefty hitting teams and had bunch of very good outings vs teams that struggle. nats hitting right around the mendoza line and barely scoring 2 runs a gm off lefties. buccos with adv late if max pitches well and leaves with it tied 2-2..

Agree with you and EV, if and when Max leaves, advantage to Pirates. They are an excellant home team, and I think this will be a close game, unless of course the Washington bullpen blows up again, like vs LAD. LOL.

[BamaCBass]

i thought the opener was crazy in STL, now cooney is -180 something? and cards are facing a left hander so odds of them giving him much support are far lesser than they would be against a rhp.. atl just a team i dont get involved with much or pay attention too, can they hit a guy that i promise isnt all that impressive stuff wise? and how bad is the atl pen? that a concern for sure

Maybe Atl ff...? Also, regarding the Tribe, I cant justify laying that price on the under at this point unless I sell a half point to 6.5 and not sure willing to do that. Thoughts?

[2daBank]

Maybe Atl ff...? Also, regarding the Tribe, I cant justify laying that price on the under at this point unless I sell a half point to 6.5 and not sure willing to do that. Thoughts?

i wouldnt touch where it sits either. im not convinced it was the greatest play in the world at un 7-115 where i played it. i feel ok bout it but nothing more than a play there. id leave alone if i was you. too much juice and i think too much potential for 7 than worth it to play 6.5.

i will look into atl ff. seems like a reasonable idea on surface.

[2daBank]

balty been one of the teams burying me this week and i want to take them again. lol. i still think they the best team in the div but they sure couldnt hit in the ny series.

[2daBank]

kc is gonna be hard to pass up as a dog. over seems decent at 1st glance too.

[EVfollower]

kc is gonna be hard to pass up as a dog. over seems decent at 1st glance too.

LAA -1 +100 booked for 2 units. KC does look tempting but I think I'm gonna pass on that one personally. That concludes today's card for me most likely. Any more plays might be live ones.

[trobin31]

Only thing with that brewer team is now that theyre officially starting to throw in the towel with ramirez trade within their own division no less. Have to wonder how it's gonna affect them going forward. Sure looked like they lacked focus at the plate last night with 10 strikeouts against a mediocre pitching and 2 fielding errors and I didn't catch entire game but fielding was questionable. This my first full season capping baseball so I'd be interested to see what thoughts are on the affects of teams downsizing their talents at this juncture of the sesson. Looks like teams like tigers, Athletics, Rangers, padres and Reds are going to be open for business while astros, dodgers, Blu jays, kc and twins are actively shopping. Only thing i remeber from last year was oakland totally had their team chemistry fuked up with trades, while some teams seem to thrive after going all in like kc, stl, and San fran. So far athletics and brewers both got their as beat after trading that day and I'll be interested to see their performance going forward, as well as any teams dumping through the next week.

[trobin31]

LAA -1 +100 booked for 2 units. KC does look tempting but I think I'm gonna pass on that one personally. That concludes today's card for me most likely. Any more plays might be live ones.

Hamilton coming back to LAA tonight going to be interesting...

[SAX27]

Great to see the Banker back in the mix!!

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

who you booked today bank?

[2daBank]

who you booked today bank?

brew crew, pads, chisox and under, royals and ff over, balty, atl ff. i think is my whole card. lol

[2daBank]

gonna add some late action cause well, 8 or so plays just not enough. lol and it was 9 actually cause i bet one last minute i didnt post. lol

jays/sea ff un 3.5
jays ff +145
jays +.5 ff -110
all just .25 a unit.


im kinda a fan of estrada even tho his peripherals dont paint as nice a picture as his surface stats. i think he one of those guys that knows how to pitch and will continue to outperform them. felix with a higher career era vs jays than any other team he has faced more than once. dont like either pen and actually think this probably goes over for gm so the ff under may be a little dicey

[trobin31]

Didn't even notice Hutchison got switched out before I took king felix, fuk. Oh well, I'm gonna grab Jays tt o3 just in case. I liked it to begin with anyway.

[2daBank]

Didn't even notice Hutchison got switched out before I took king felix, fuk. Oh well, I'm gonna grab Jays tt o3 just in case. I liked it to begin with anyway.

didnt like jays with hutch so dont blame you.

[2daBank]

tex/halos ov 8

[2daBank]

fukkin O's continuing to cost me money. think it time to reevaluate these scrubs. thought they had a pen advantage and of coarse pen lets me down today.

[trobin31]

Fukin O's I Shoulda known betta