MLB - Thursday, 7/23/15

44 Mag · 07-23-15, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

2 MLB Plays Thursday

Twins +161 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox +135 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 344-312-19, +63.60

I figured you for Seattle today with your buddy Iwa... pitching???

unusialsusp5 · 07-23-15, 08:07 AM

you're an underdog grinder. you'll probably split and make money on these two, but would be concerned about the fact that red sox are on 7 game losing streak and angels on 7 game winning streak. why should these streaks end today. fade.

nickcruz60 · 07-23-15, 08:07 AM

LT what is your % on the yanks?

BOA12 · 07-23-15, 08:19 AM

hate to go against you think you might need +1.5 in both games bol Lt

Conqueror · 07-23-15, 08:21 AM

Twins, I can understand. But Red Sox?

44 Mag · 07-23-15, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Twins, I can understand. But Red Sox?

Frankly, I don't understand either one??? But he is winning, so I can't comment.

trytrytry · 07-23-15, 08:33 AM

thanks LT profits great daily thread

unusialsusp5 · 07-23-15, 08:39 AM

lines were inflated partially because of books wanting to stop streak players. so his model makes these 2 dogs playable (on sheer numbers) but laa richards coming off 2 hitter (vs red sox no less) has lowered his era nearly a run since early june despite two road losses. given up only 3 runs in last 23.2 at home. santana shut out oak in last but only had 1 k. cause for concern there. the red sox couldn't beat their triple a team right now. although miley brilliant last out. has been inconsistent, while astros pitcher has been very effective. hard to bet against him. beware of these two dogs. fade or pass.

jjgold · 07-23-15, 08:50 AM

hard to question LT with his results

He goes by a model I would think regardless of anything else

unusialsusp5 · 07-23-15, 09:09 AM

absolutely do not want to bash, criticize or troll LT. understand that his model works over the long run. gives him value (on mainly underdogs, which you should only play in this sport) agree that LAA line is way too high to play today, but they're not going to lose this with houston nipping at their heels. simply just parlay angels/astros and call it a day.

BOA12 · 07-23-15, 09:19 AM

amen on the explanation you can only try bol unusialsusp5

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by nickcruz60

LT what is your % on the yanks?

61% (-156)

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by Conqueror

Twins, I can understand. But Red Sox?

Miley is better than his record, McCullers may have begun a regression with his shaky last start.

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

absolutely do not want to bash, criticize or troll LT. understand that his model works over the long run. gives him value (on mainly underdogs, which you should only play in this sport) agree that LAA line is way too high to play today, but they're not going to lose this with houston nipping at their heels. simply just parlay angels/astros and call it a day.

If both favorites are -EV, parlaying them is not +EV.

Big Bear · 07-23-15, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

absolutely do not want to bash, criticize or troll LT. understand that his model works over the long run. gives him value (on mainly underdogs, which you should only play in this sport) agree that LAA line is way too high to play today, but they're not going to lose this with houston nipping at their heels. simply just parlay angels/astros and call it a day.

one thing LT's model does not account for is line-ups as many of his picks are made before line-ups are determined.

but its a good model for determing value no doubt

Big Bear · 07-23-15, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Miley is better than his record, McCullers may have begun a regression with his shaky last start.

McCullers is a future ace man. Check him out. He has phenomenal stuff. He is still young and has some kinks to work out but he has a special arm.

Big Bear · 07-23-15, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

I figured you for Seattle today with your buddy Iwa... pitching???

Seattle is looking mighty tempting today. In fact all 4 dogs in the early games might win.

stevenash · 07-23-15, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

McCullers is a future ace man. Check him out. He has phenomenal stuff. He is still young and has some kinks to work out but he has a special arm.

You're an idiot, Hinch has him on a strict innings/pitch count.

Big Bear · 07-23-15, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

You're an idiot, Hinch has him on a strict innings/pitch count.

what does that have to do with being a future ace?

in fact him being on a strict pitch count (if that is even true) means that the organization has big plans for him.

i never said anything about taking the Astros today. I was just responding to LT saying that McCullers might be due for a regression.... i didn't know if LT was implying that McCullers has been pitching over his head so far this year and that he didn't have the talent to sustain success at the big league level...

all i am saying is McCullers IMO will be a front of the line starter in MLB very soon. He has swing and miss stuff.

sportsjunkie3119 · 07-23-15, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

2 MLB Plays Thursday

Twins +161 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox +135 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 344-312-19, +63.60

Seems I am not the only one liking all dogs tonight. Odds seem off tonight. Any reason for the Twins and Red Sox pick? Thanks LT

stevenash · 07-23-15, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

what does that have to do with being a future ace?

in fact him being on a strict pitch count (if that is even true) means that the organization has big plans for him.

i never said anything about taking the Astros today. I was just responding to LT saying that McCullers might do for a regression.... i didn't know if LT was implying that McCullers has been pitching over his head so far this year and that he didn't have the talent to sustain success at the big league level...

all i am saying is McCullers IMO will be a front of the line starter in MLB very soon. He has swing and miss stuff.

Never should have attacked my wife idiot.

Biggest mistake you ever made in your life attacking my wife.

unusialsusp5 · 07-23-15, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Miley is better than his record, McCullers may have begun a regression with his shaky last start.

shaky start? yes, he lost on road gave up 4 hits in 6 innings and struck out 10. how about his last 3 home game starts. 3-0 IP21 H8 ER2 BB5 K's23 hardly regressing. you need to dig into pitchers logs more.

louisvillekid · 07-23-15, 10:29 AM

thoughts on CWS/Cle total. 9/9 under on season. Kinda stands out.
Also, Tor hittin almost .280 against lefties n scoring 5.5 runs, bad thing BP has blown so many saves. Was thinkin about it, but w/Hutch out n Dickey in, Dickey 0-7 on road, n over 5 runs avg.

BOA12 · 07-23-15, 10:44 AM

Toronto went from bad to worse taking them +2.5 on adjusted linr and have them for series. hope 2.5 runs is enough against Kazmir I have cle u7- also bol kid

unusialsusp5 · 07-23-15, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

If both favorites are -EV, parlaying them is not +EV.

you are correct about parlays. but this one is too easy to resist.

trobin31 · 07-23-15, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Never should have attacked my wife idiot.

Biggest mistake you ever made in your life attacking my wife.

Nasher u need to get over this and move on with your life, not healthy man, find your happy place. I come here everyday and see ppl making disparaging remarks agst my ethnicity and mental conditions of my family members on the daily, sometimes you just need to be comfortable in you're own skin man. Now give us a winner!

ithinkiamgood · 07-23-15, 11:26 AM

trobin in this mothafukah

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

shaky start? yes, he lost on road gave up 4 hits in 6 innings and struck out 10. how about his last 3 home game starts. 3-0 IP21 H8 ER2 BB5 K's23 hardly regressing. you need to dig into pitchers logs more.

I mentioned the regression (and said "may have begun") because his rest-of-season ZiPS only has him with a 5.08 ERA and 4.73 FIP. Now, I have no idea why that would be, but it is what it is. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...120&position=P

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 12:06 PM

3 MLB Additions

5 MLB Plays Thursday

Twins +161 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Angels OVER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / Athletics OVER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Red Sox +135 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Diamondbacks UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)

BlueJaysNation · 07-23-15, 12:06 PM

LT, how do you feel about the UNDER 7.5 at +100 in Yankees game with Tanaka and Ubaldo on the mound, and both teams having solid bullpens? ...and not to mention Yankees are hitting only .228 in day games

...Plus the UNDER has won in all 5 games at Yankee stadium after the all stars

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

I figured you for Seattle today with your buddy Iwa... pitching???

Not a big enough price to fade Price

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

one thing LT's model does not account for is line-ups as many of his picks are made before line-ups are determined.

but its a good model for determing value no doubt

Not quite true, model uses default lineups.

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by louisvillekid

thoughts on CWS/Cle total. 9/9 under on season. Kinda stands out.
Also, Tor hittin almost .280 against lefties n scoring 5.5 runs, bad thing BP has blown so many saves. Was thinkin about it, but w/Hutch out n Dickey in, Dickey 0-7 on road, n over 5 runs avg.

Model has 8.3 for CWS/Cle

LT Profits · 07-23-15, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by BlueJaysNation

LT, how do you feel about the UNDER 7.5 at +100 in Yankees game with Tanaka and Ubaldo on the mound, and both teams having solid bullpens? ...and not to mention Yankees are hitting only .228 in day games

...Plus the UNDER has won in all 5 games at Yankee stadium after the all stars

Exactly neutral on this one, model at exactly 7.5