MLB - Monday, 7/6/15

[RavensFan2k3]

Model favors Seattle heavily at 65% (-186), Iwakuma grades out light years better than Simon. So Mariners actually show a bit of value in the -160s, but I do not lay those kinds of odds.

Yeah I was gonna say I like Seattle here. But can you explain the Reds pick?

[LT Profits]

I'd stay away from the Padres... take a look at Shields last couple starts on the road and get back to me. Pirates all day, but will be a close one most likely.

Pirates now -123 at Pinny.

[LT Profits]

Hey LT question for you. What's up with Eric Surkamp being -225? What does your model say about the Dodgers tonite?

Not a damn thing. I have no data on Surkamp, couldn't find ZiPS Projections on him and didn't want to waste more time looking.

[LT Profits]

PLus, I posted in my thread, don't get the 7 for a total??? If these guys keep pitching that way, the over looks like a gift, unless someone thinks Seattle can't hit ??? I don't know, it looks awful appetizing, of course LT is smarter than I am ???? Maybe he will weigh in on the subject for us.
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Iwakuma is studly when he is healthy. And Mariners struggle offensively at home vs. average pitching.

[LT Profits]

Iwakuma is studly when he is healthy. And Mariners struggle offensively at home vs. average pitching.

Also, McClendon said there will be no restrictions on Iwa, so it sounds like he is fine and you can toss the three April starts.

[Conqueror]

Not a damn thing. I have no data on Surkamp, couldn't find ZiPS Projections on him and didn't want to waste more time looking.

It doesn't even matter whatever the model says. It makes little sense to lay -200ish on a team struggling at the plate.

[LT Profits]

It doesn't even matter whatever the model says. It makes little sense to lay -200ish on a team struggling at the plate.

Model has Dodgers with 4.3 runs though, O'Sullivan has been awful on the road. Also if I just plug in Average Lefty for Dodgers, it spits out LA -213.

[44 Mag]

Iwakuma is studly when he is healthy. And Mariners struggle offensively at home vs. average pitching.

Also, McClendon said there will be no restrictions on Iwa, so it sounds like he is fine and you can toss the three April starts.

Thanks for the info, the guys were waiting to here from you.
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[mth61]

My system play has value on St Louis at +112, yours? 57% favored

[Alex Vaile]

Not a damn thing. I have no data on Surkamp, couldn't find ZiPS Projections on him and didn't want to waste more time looking.

Ok cool just seems crazy. He was with the Giants last season and was up and down to the minors. Thanks.

[RavensFan2k3]

Pirates now -123 at Pinny.

More reason to take Pit in my opinion

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Additions

9 MLB Plays Monday

Reds +138 (Heritage)
Reds +115 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Padres +142 (Heritage)
Padres / Pirates OVER 7 +105 (Heritage)
Padres / Pirates OVER 3.5 -110 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Twins +104 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / White Sox UNDER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
Tigers / Mariners UNDER 7 +108 (5 Dimes)
Mets +141 (Heritage)

[No coincidences]

6 MLB Plays Monday

Reds +138 (Heritage)
Padres +142 (Heritage)
Twins +104 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / White Sox UNDER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
Tigers / Mariners UNDER 7 +108 (5 Dimes)
Mets +141 (Heritage)


YTD: 296-271-14, +54.28

Congrats on killing the closing numbers with these two.

Now you're fvcked.

[$FSUGAMER$]

LT: Why are all of Bovada's baseball lines scratched?

[jeffjam_]

Because jeffjam_ asked for it :

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Thanks LT, that's about as even as it gets. Hope your success will continue. After the season, try to come up with real vs. estimated edge comparision, that would be interesting.

[PaperTrail07]

nice call on the over...7 was low low

PLus, I posted in my thread, don't get the 7 for a total??? If these guys keep pitching that way, the over looks like a gift, unless someone thinks Seattle can't hit ??? I don't know, it looks awful appetizing, of course LT is smarter than I am ???? Maybe he will weigh in on the subject for us.
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[PaperTrail07]

Nice call by you....horrible call to the BP by wash...

Washington is now -125 at Pinny so I crushed the line as of now. Let's see what happens.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Seems like 20 to 30 cent moves are the best. 40 or more never win. I think 40 or more happened twice this year and both lost.