MLB - Monday, 7/6/15

jeffjam_ · 07-06-15, 07:15 AM

LT, do you have ML/RL/Totals splits of your record? Do you expect some kind of regression given how well you've been doing? Thanks.

LT Profits · 07-06-15, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by jeffjam_

LT, do you have ML/RL/Totals splits of your record? Do you expect some kind of regression given how well you've been doing? Thanks.

Unfortunately no and I don't feel like taking the time to get the splits.

Instinctively I think I am doing well in totals. Also I do not think I have played more than three Run Lines all year, so that part of it is irrelevant. As for regression, I don't know because this is the first year after tweaking my model.

jeffjam_ · 07-06-15, 07:27 AM

All right, thanks. Anyway, for your own sake, I think it would be wise to start recording those splits, after all how else you would know in which department your model is flawed if that would happen.

44 Mag · 07-06-15, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Unfortunately no and I don't feel like taking the time to get the splits.

Instinctively I think I am doing well in totals. Also I do not think I have played more than three Run Lines all year, so that part of it is irrelevant. As for regression, I don't know because this is the first year after tweaking my model.

Gotta love these guys questioning success. LOL.

dirtycash66 · 07-06-15, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

6 MLB Plays Monday

Reds +138 (Heritage)
Padres +142 (Heritage)
Twins +104 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / White Sox UNDER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
Tigers / Mariners UNDER 7 +108 (5 Dimes)
Mets +141 (Heritage)

YTD: 296-271-14, +54.28

Under & Underdog monday. I'm all in. I can see a profit being made today.

Big Bear · 07-06-15, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by jeffjam_

LT, do you have ML/RL/Totals splits of your record? Do you expect some kind of regression given how well you've been doing? Thanks.

what a fukkin asshole you are for asking LT if he expects a regression.

dude WTF

44 Mag · 07-06-15, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

what a fukkin asshole you are for asking LT if he expects a regression.

dude WTF

Hey Bear, tell us how you really feel???

RavensFan2k3 · 07-06-15, 08:31 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Hey Bear, tell us how you really feel???

Lol you have to admit that was a pretty ignorant question to ask.

44 Mag · 07-06-15, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Lol you have to admit that was a pretty ignorant question to ask.

Didn't I allude to the same thing in post #5 ???? Just wasn't as "diplomatic" as Bear. LOL.

RavensFan2k3 · 07-06-15, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Didn't I allude to the same thing in post #5 ???? Just wasn't as "diplomatic" as Bear. LOL.

Lmao, didn't see that post

44 Mag · 07-06-15, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Lmao, didn't see that post

Hope you took the "reverse jinx" last night ??? I saw this morning a bunch of guys questioning that under wager in the LAA game after I signed off. You guys know damn right well I couldn't hit an under play if I had to. LOL. I even posted the same thing Friday and Saturday, when I wgare under, QUICK, go the other way.

PorkChop · 07-06-15, 08:47 AM

Padres have zero business being anything at +130 or over.

P.O.D. Padres +142

LT Profits · 07-06-15, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by jeffjam_

All right, thanks. Anyway, for your own sake, I think it would be wise to start recording those splits, after all how else you would know in which department your model is flawed if that would happen.

OK splits are on the way and you will see that unit-wise, it is just about an even split ignoring RLs.

LT Profits · 07-06-15, 09:31 AM

Because jeffjam_ asked for it

:

Code:

ML	166	171	3	27.10
Total	129	98	11	27.56
RL	1	2	0	-0.38
Total	296	271	14	54.28

Code:

Game	286	262	9	53.19
5-inn	10	9	5	1.09
Total	296	271	14	54.28

Code:

Game ML    	163	167	0	27.65
Game Ttl	122	93	9	25.92
Game RL     	1	2	0	-0.38
Total          	286	262	9	53.19

Code:

5-inn ML	3	4	3	-0.55
5-inn Ttl	7	5	2	1.64
Total          	10	9	5	1.09

jjgold · 07-06-15, 09:42 AM

I never realized LT a technician bettor

I thought this guy was just an action shooter

Great work LT

RavensFan2k3 · 07-06-15, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

I never realized LT a technician bettor

I thought this guy was just an action shooter

Great work LT

you can't be serious. He's the most technical of all technicians lol

Big Bear · 07-06-15, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

you can't be serious. He's the most technical of all technicians lol

BeanTownClown88 · 07-06-15, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by jeffjam_

All right, thanks. Anyway, for your own sake, I think it would be wise to start recording those splits, after all how else you would know in which department your model is flawed if that would happen.

He's up 50+ units..maybe he should just focus on what he's doing lol

dirtycash66 · 07-06-15, 11:09 AM

What I'm trying to figure out is why all you pole smokers and chicken lickers are so damn interested in LT's formula

just sit back, tail him and make this money……Too easy, thats what i'm doing.

44 Mag · 07-06-15, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

What I'm trying to figure out is why all you pole smokers and chicken lickers are so damn interested in LT's formula

just sit back, tail him and make this money……Too easy, thats what i'm doing.

NIce talk !!! I liked your Halle Berry avatar better than this one. LOL.

ridindirty · 07-06-15, 11:39 AM

Hey Lt, how about Houston. Keuchel has been a beast in his last few starts

LT Profits · 07-06-15, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by ridindirty

Hey Lt, how about Houston. Keuchel has been a beast in his last few starts

I get Cleveland 52% (-108) at home so really see no value either way.

James Marques · 07-06-15, 12:08 PM

Nice work LT!

dirtycash66 · 07-06-15, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

NIce talk !!! I liked your Halle Berry avatar better than this one. LOL.

lol i just might bring her back, i think this new avatar brings out the worst in me.

44 Mag · 07-06-15, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

lol i just might bring her back, i think this new avatar brings out the worst in me.

ridindirty · 07-06-15, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I get Cleveland 52% (-108) at home so really see no value either way.

Ok

How about the Tigers? I know Simon has been shacky last couple of sharts but there has to be some sort of value at +150ish?

PaperTrail07 · 07-06-15, 01:16 PM

Please dont bet the Reds LT...there is no Value there at +138....Dont say i didnt try to warn you lol

PaperTrail07 · 07-06-15, 01:17 PM

Against Seattle....100%.....they dont see him often

Originally posted by ridindirty

Ok

How about the Tigers? I know Simon has been shacky last couple of sharts but there has to be some sort of value at +150ish?

Matty Mo · 07-06-15, 01:32 PM

I'd stay away from the Padres... take a look at Shields last couple starts on the road and get back to me. Pirates all day, but will be a close one most likely.

Alex Vaile · 07-06-15, 01:46 PM

Hey LT question for you. What's up with Eric Surkamp being -225? What does your model say about the Dodgers tonite?

RavensFan2k3 · 07-06-15, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Please dont bet the Reds LT...there is no Value there at +138....Dont say i didnt try to warn you lol

Yeah I see alot of people on Reds, and I just don't get it all. I'm actually leaning Washington

44 Mag · 07-06-15, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by ridindirty

Ok

How about the Tigers? I know Simon has been shacky last couple of sharts but there has to be some sort of value at +150ish?

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Against Seattle....100%.....they dont see him often

PLus, I posted in my thread, don't get the 7 for a total??? If these guys keep pitching that way, the over looks like a gift, unless someone thinks Seattle can't hit ??? I don't know, it looks awful appetizing, of course LT is smarter than I am ???? Maybe he will weigh in on the subject for us.
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LT Profits · 07-06-15, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by ridindirty

Ok

How about the Tigers? I know Simon has been shacky last couple of sharts but there has to be some sort of value at +150ish?

Model favors Seattle heavily at 65% (-186), Iwakuma grades out light years better than Simon. So Mariners actually show a bit of value in the -160s, but I do not lay those kinds of odds.

LT Profits · 07-06-15, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Please dont bet the Reds LT...there is no Value there at +138....Dont say i didnt try to warn you lol

Washington is now -125 at Pinny so I crushed the line as of now. Let's see what happens.