MLB Leans ~ Easter Sunday ~ 4/12/09

[Dexter]

First off, Happy Easter to all out there. Hope you all have a safe and good day on Sunday. OK, enough of that, i'm playing my boy Sunday afternoon:

Tim Lincecum is coming off a weak game 1 loss, and he should be seeing red here in start 2. Not only will he be looking to bounce back from a bad first start, but the Giants ace will be looking to stop a 2 game losing streak for his team at a short price. he has been dominant in his short career vs the padres with a .95/1.13 era whip over 8 starts. in 3 starts last year in sd, lincecum gave up 1er in 22ip. the giants are 7-1 in games he has started vs the padres. the padres are 3-6 in games where young has faced the giants. gimme the world class ace to right the ship for his team.

-giants PK (big - 3x)

[jellobiafra]

Really like Tampa tomorrow as well as SFG. Probably going to parlay them with someone to eat the juice. Thinking Danny Haren should do in a rubber game. Randy Wolf - less than overwhelming - is opposing.

[Ticon18]

you my friend are crazy. but I like it

[Dexter]

i have a few small total leans that i may or may not play depending on the weather/wind direction tomorrow. the under mets/marlins is an obvious play, but i may still jump on it if the wind is blowing in. same for the over phils/rockies in coors - 10 seems like a bargain with park and cook both being very poor vs the opposing team over the years.

[Dexter]

Really like Tampa tomorrow as well as SFG. Probably going to parlay them with someone to eat the juice. Thinking Danny Haren should do in a rubber game. Randy Wolf - less than overwhelming - is opposing.

yeah, i was looking at arz and haren off a loss, but a little too much juice vs a very good dodger team.

you my friend are crazy. but I like it

who me, or jello?!

[The_Kid]

Alright, Dex. You already mentioned it but I have to play it.

Rockies/Phillies OVER 10

Aaron Cook got absolutely shelled in his first start of the season, giving up 9 hits and 8 runs in 2 1/3 innings. It won't get any easier tomorrow vs a Phillies lineup that is loaded with talented hitters. In his career vs the Phillies, Cook sports a whopping 6.14 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. His BAA is .338! Wow! On the other side, we have Chan Ho Park going for the Phillies. I think this is more of a spot start for Park because I don't think he's a 5th starter for any team. His best years are behind him even though he did have a pretty good year out of the bullpen with the Dodgers. He hasn't fared much better against the opponent than Cook. His career ERA against the Rockies is 4.63 and he also owns a WHIP of 1.58. His BAA is .283 as well. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Colorado. I expect to see a fireworks show tomorrow at Coors Field.

[Dexter]

you're a good salesman thekid. if i see that wind blowing anywhere but in, im with ya.

[Dexter]

in fact, i think sunday is the perfect day for a changeup with the avatar

[whatisit]

Where can you get the wind direction in relation to the stadiums?

[shoebox]

I have seen what I needed to see, baseball starts monday for me for those that care


Happy Easter

[pimike]

Hi Dexter, First this is not the same line up as last year, second Lincolm has been seen around the league and is not going to trick anyone like last year.

Thirdly I do believe he will have a good game, yet so will YOUNG. I see the safest play tomorrow between these two as the UNDER play.


Good Luck anyways and Happy Easter to you

[Pick'nParlays]

games 1 and 2 of this series clearly went over

[wangichu]

Josh Johnson looked sick in his first outting, and santana is more vulnerable in the early 1st half. He was solid, but shaky in his first outting and only the red hot blue jays have scored more than the marlins this year, who are coming off their first loss in a 3 game set at home. Sorry Johan, but i like the plus money on florida and johnson

FLA ML

the first 3 games were very well pitched by the royals (Meche, greinke, davies) and the rotation has reset just in time to prevent a sweep at the hand of the yankees, who they have played strangly well in recent years. Heavy Money on the yankees for those thinking they have a cheap price for the yankees to just win, but KC is set to pee in joba chamberlain's cheerios

KC ML

Arizona has only had one game go under this year and it was the game in which dan haren toed up against ubaldo jimenez. Haren is hardly hittable early in the year and should stunt the progress of a dodger offense off a season high 11 run performancek. He seems to get minimal run support at teams and the bad luck mantra could creep up on him. Similarly, randy wolf can put up zeros early in seasons when it's least expected. First two games in this series went over and now the O/U gets dropped telling me the game goes under.

ARI/LA Under 9

Jays are on fire while the tribe is ice cold. We saw purcey gem his first outing of the year and have yet to see whether or not reyes will be good to start the season out. Good payout for a 5-1 team playing an 0-5 team

TOR ML

[peterpan19]

final card for today:
cin -1 (big 2x)
harang wasreally good in his first start allowing only 1 ER in 5 Innings of work, he maybe struggled against Pit last year (6.35 ERA) but I believe that this pitcher today here on the mound is more like the one we saw in 2007 who had 3.52 ERA this year against Pit. Add that Snell is pitching today for the Pirates, who allowed 8 runs in his first start plus he had a 5.01 ERA vs Cin last year, give me the Reds in this game here today..

Cle 5 Innings
Reyes will make his first start of the year here today for the Tribe, he was lights out for them last year posting an 1.83 ERA... plus I dont like Purcey at all here today for Toronto... I think Reyes will give the Tribe 5 solid Innings and Cle should put some runs on the board early on, I am not quiet so sure about the whole game as the Triebs bullpen could go down in flames against a potent Blue Jays offense later in the game

TB -1
Shields will bounce back in this one here today after a medicore outing, he has 3.21 ERA against Baltimore and TB won all of his last 7 starts against the Orioles, that is also why I take this for the whole game... TB will win this one... and forget Eaton is itching today for Baltimore...

STL -1
Rodriguez is a great pitcher in my book and I like what I saw in his first outing this year, but I dont have any faith in the Astros Offense in this one as Lohse has a 2.42 ERA against them... I smell a clean sweep for the Cardinals here today...

SF 5 Innings (big 2x)
Lincecum should bounce back and turn in at least 5 solid Innings here today (he allowed 3 ER runs in 43.1 Innings last year against SD !!!), add in that Young is on the other side today and he pretty much struggled against SF in his career (4.01 ERA)... dont know if the bullpen can hold a lead here but 5 Innings should be ok

CHC 5 Innings (big 2x or 3x, depending on the early games)
I really like Dempster here today as he always pitched great against the Brewers, going 4-0 with an 2.40 ERA last year ... add in that Fielder only hits .250 against Dempster, hell I like the Cubs in that game here today...

GL

[jellobiafra]

Hi Dexter, First this is not the same line up as last year, second Lincolm has been seen around the league and is not going to trick anyone like last year.

I don't see Lincecum as a "trick" anybody pitcher. The kid is just filthy. Don't let the size fool you. He's a pure power pitcher. He doesn't have to rely on guile or deception. He just dominates you. He has the longest leg drive in the game which has him releasing the ball closer to the plate than any other pitcher. Add that to his mid 90's velocity and the devasting motion on his pitches and you've got what Dex referred to him as - a world class ace. I don't care how many times you've seen him. Bob Gibson didn't get any easier to hit after he'd been through the league for 2 seasons, did he?

[RkD KiD]

I don't see Lincecum as a "trick" anybody pitcher. The kid is just filthy. Don't let the size fool you. He's a pure power pitcher. He doesn't have to rely on guile or deception. He just dominates you. He has the longest leg drive in the game which has him releasing the ball closer to the plate than any other pitcher. Add that to his mid 90's velocity and the devasting motion on his pitches and you've got what Dex referred to him as - a world class ace. I don't care how many times you've seen him. Bob Gibson didn't get any easier to hit after he'd been through the league for 2 seasons, did he?

I totally agree with this write up...dead on

[Dexter]

Where can you get the wind direction in relation to the stadiums?

http://www.scoresandodds.com/weather.html

*check back a few hrs b4 first pitch

[Dexter]

Hi Dexter, First this is not the same line up as last year, second Lincolm has been seen around the league and is not going to trick anyone like last year.

Thirdly I do believe he will have a good game, yet so will YOUNG. I see the safest play tomorrow between these two as the UNDER play.


Good Luck anyways and Happy Easter to you

the core lineup for the padres is exactly the same with gonzalez, giles, kouz - where do you feel the lineup has changed so much or gotten better for that fact? of course all lineups change from year to year, but if the core lineup is still pretty much the same, i still like to use that data. its not only the players, but also pitching in that certian stadium - some guys hate certain places, and others love some. thats information i like to try and identify.

trick? Lincecum is probably the best pitcher in the game and his arsenal has nothing to do with tricking the opposition, but rather overpowering them. he sits 93-95, dials up to 97-99 when needed. on top of that, he has a crazy 12 to 6 hammer, and a devestating split/circle change that has become his strikeout pitch.

6.5 is a bit low for my taste.

happy easter bro...

[Dexter]

this is one of my favorite sites being that im a pitching phreak. it breaks down a pitchers velocity and frequency of pitch selection. nice way to see if a pitcher may be hiding an injury. no data yet for 2009 - but be sure to check out cole hamels.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5705&position=P

[kmarinouofm]

Hey everybody... i haven't been really making picks..just trying to get situated in this forum..

i would like to make three picks for the Mafia

Toronto +109
Atlanta -170
Rangers +105

[Dexter]

wind blowing in @ 15mph in col, and in at 10mph in florida.

i think i'm gonna lay off the totals and play just the giants and the pc.

[joanapoker]

Dexter do you track your mlb picks?
If so, how is that going?

Excuse me for asking this, but I thought (since I know nothing about baseball) that for you - good cappers - it was really easy to pick out winners at baseball, and for what I've seen so far (Machine, CK etc etc) are all in the red.....
I am not trying to throw anyone down or denigrate the work of someone, only want to understand better baseball picking!

thx

[delijaworld]

Hi Bettors

Hope you're fine and ready for Baseball betting...
Putting your money into something only makes sense if you have a plan to succeed.
here is my Selection:
Florida Marlins
Josh Johnson - R +1½ +120 -(Johnson, who signed a one-year, $1.4 million contract with the Marlins in the offseason, is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA lifetime
against the Mets, whom he beat twice in 2008.)
Houston Astros
Wandy Rodriguez - L +1½ +115-(Rodriguez (0-0, 1.50 ERA) is 37-40 with a 4.76 ERA in four major league seasons, but he started to show signs of improvement in
2008, posting a career-best 3.54 ERA in 25 starts.)
Washington Nationals
Scott Olsen - L +1½ +160 -(The Nationals got a two-run homer from Ryan Zimmerman and two hits from Cristian Guzman, but had just three other hits and
couldn't make a 3-0 lead stand up on Saturday.)
P.s. Good luck to all...

[jellobiafra]

joanapoker -

It's more difficult to pick baseball early in the season. You just don't know who's going to be what. Look at Tampa Bay last year. They came out of nowhere. The lines are based on what everyone assumes will be the favorite, but in 2 months we may look back at some of these lines and laugh. We'll settle into a groove once everyone has a firm grasp on who's who this year. You'll see these records improve.

[Dexter]

Dexter do you track your mlb picks?
If so, how is that going?

Excuse me for asking this, but I thought (since I know nothing about baseball) that for you - good cappers - it was really easy to pick out winners at baseball, and for what I've seen so far (Machine, CK etc etc) are all in the red.....
I am not trying to throw anyone down or denigrate the work of someone, only want to understand better baseball picking!

thx

started out hot then went cold. down 5.3 units ytd with bets ranging from 1-3 units.

is cocknocker in the red? i know hes hit a few heavy plays..

ps - if it were easy i would not be ironing my shirt for work in the am

[Jimbo42]

Booked:
Pittsburgh +132

Value play...Pirates offense woke up last game...

[joanapoker]

started out hot then went cold. down 5.3 units ytd with bets ranging from 1-3 units.

is cocknocker in the red? i know hes hit a few heavy plays..

ps - if it were easy i would not be ironing my shirt for work in the am

In the red, assuming that all bets are played to get the same amount when winning(eg $300)! But I know he plays his heaviest plays for more than 1K.... so he's probably up (in money) but not in picks!

[Dexter]

In the red, assuming that all bets are played to get the same amount when winning(eg $300)! But I know he plays his heaviest plays for more than 1K.... so he's probably up (in money) but not in picks!

well, i hope you've learned from hanging out here that records mean nothing. they are for bs touts who want to look attractive to suckers who's eyes light up when they see %'s.

very few handicappers can even hit 60% over the long haul when dealing with spreads. obviously when talking baseball and moneylines, %'s can be higher due to taking huge ML fav's.

weighted gambling is the way to go.

[joanapoker]

Dexter,

I know that, obviously that in baseball (much like soccer, because of heavy favourite ML) track records can be huge in the % side! But for what I've seen so far, many cappers are missing totally the picks (even CK, Machine, yourself, this is = solid cappers) and I just wanted to understand why that is happen. And Jellobiafra already told a good solid reason why!

[cocknocker]

Alrighty, boys and girls

Tigers-117
Astros+104
Florida+117

[Dexter]

i have another reason - shit happens

this is gambling and there are MANY ups and downs when you bet consistently day in and out over the long haul. thats why i think its foolish when i watch people tail others and basically try and ride the hot hand switching to different cappers every other day. you're better off finding someone who you agree with their theory of making plays, and stick with them for an extended period of time.

[cocknocker]

I made one single play on the Cardinals for 4 dimes that wiped my losses away and put me far into the black. Then the same went for yesterday. I lost my small wagers and wiped the books up with a clean $1600 win with the Pale Hose. I don't know how many times I have to say it, but if ou look at my record for the big ones you'll start to understand how I do things and how I stay so far in the black. Who cares about the $200 plays when you have a play for 4 dimes hit?

I am playing all of these small today, but I am playing the Hornets for 3.5 dimes, and then the Sixers for 3. If I win those do you honestly think that I would care about losing these three fun bets? Guys need to start paying attention to how they are doing things and stop playing all of their bets for the same amounts. If you hav a good wager, you lay the hammer down. Even touts know the difference between heavy hits and daily plays, you get my drift?

When my system kicks in I will play be making my plays evenly however, an I will play much less straight games. You guys should pay attention t how I do things and not the daily record. A record don't mean shit when you know HOW to wager.

[peterpan19]

joanapoker

did you get my pm ?

GL today

forgot to post the lines I got for my games so far:
cin -1 -115
cle 5 Innings -133
TB -1 -124
stl -1 +112

sf and chc to follow, not booked yet...

[peterpan19]

ck
good to see you on the sixers too, no, sixers and mem were my plays today for nba

GL

[cocknocker]

Memphis is the wrong call peterpan19. The Lakers are fighting with Cleveland for home court advantage throughout. It will get ugly in the 2nd half.