Want advise on Tigers/A's (Tuesday Matchup)

[Cordoba25]

Looking ahead to Tuesday, line on game has opened w/ Det at -113 w/ David Price scheduled to start. I have to admit I the expected the line to be much higher for the Tigers. A's aren't hitting lefties well and facing them, are 27th in runs w/ just a .213 batting average. Against Price, the numbers stay along those lines w/ Oakland having a combined .210 batting average against him. He's been solid on the road this yr w/ a 2.24 ERA in 4 starts (including 2 which came against Min and KC; lefty killers) . And if not for 1 home bad outing, his overall numbers would be much better!

On the flipside, A's starter Chavez also has solid numbers this yr. But he's been hit well by the Tigers who combined, are batting just shy of .300 against him. And we all know how terrible that Oak pen is and how their defense is just as bad and how much either can cost them a win in a close game.. as it has many times this season. Sure, Oak has now won 3 straight for the first time all year but they still own the worst home record in baseball and Det is a solid road team (2nd best road record in league). And although Det is just 7-7 in their last 14, 5 of those 7 losses came at the expense of Lobstien and Sanchez who are by far the weakest links in the Tigers rotation this season.

Every single angle I look at this game I see Det having the edge. Want to go large in this game but want some reassurance from those in the know that Det is the right bet here. Is there anything I'm missing? Seems like a very solid pick for a small road fav here. Any advise for / against this pick? All comments are appreciated..

[R.P. McMurphy]

If you like Price I would say f5 that way you are leaving it in his hands and that pen can't get involved.

[FlyinAir]

Since Tigers lost today, Chase the Tigers to win until you profit.

So 1.1 to win 1 tmrw
And if they lose, double up the next day
As bettors we all should know what the chase system is I shouldn't have to explain it

[Cordoba25]

@ RP McMurphy

Comparing both pens Det still has the advantage.

Detroit pen has a collective 2.82 ERA while Oak sits at a 2nd worst 4.96 ERA.

And while the following information is a bit outdated as it's sourced from an article published 1 week ago, at the time, Oak had 8 blown saves and 12 relief losses (both worst in league).

Oak pen is really bad dude so if it's a play, thinking fg is still the way to go...

[Waterstpub87]

I have it capped at -110/110 vig free, which is pretty close to the line. Not many good games tommorow

[Cordoba25]

Do you mind explaining in brief why you have it so evenly matched?

Baseball is a tough market for me and this game, Det - for the reasons in my 1st post, seems like a very solid pick. It seems all the numbers support it.

[StatsKing]

It seems all the numbers support it.

i agree completely. im going to double check everything, but im pretty sure im about to pull the trigger...

[trobin31]

I think the line is low because Miguel Cabrera(Questionable?) and Victor martinez (15d DL) leave the Tigers in a pinch for scoring runs, hence the shutout today. Under ????

[Waterstpub87]

Do you mind explaining in brief why you have it so evenly matched?

Baseball is a tough market for me and this game, Det - for the reasons in my 1st post, seems like a very solid pick. It seems all the numbers support it.

Sure. So I run a completely math based system. Here are some of the highlights:

Price preforming slightly worse than Chavez.
Tigers better offense all around, but not by that much.
Tigers bullpen better.

None of the statistics really show Detroit to be that dominate over Oakland. Slightly better, sure. Its not like Detroit is playing Philadelphia. Oakland at home with a good pitcher, its a tight game.

[Cordoba25]

Thx for your input, Waterstpub. I guess I see the game as a bunch of tiny edges all contributing to one larger edge... Sure, not as large as a play against Philly.. and all the chalk associated w/ a game like that. But just a bunch of solid edges.

It's interesting cause your model favors Price as performing slightly worse than Chavez but advanced metrics (XFIP and SIERRA - the ones I rely on the most) show them as equal, in addition to the notion that had it not been for 1 really bad start - Price ERA would be a good deal lower. I don't know if your model includes how teams specifically fare against Righty/ Lefty pitchers in addition to past pitcher performances vs the current Team hitters they'd be facing but these are both areas I'm weighing heavily in the decision on this pick. Oak is at home but that hasn't meant much, if anything all yr.

Unless someone comes in here with someting convincing on why it's not a smart pick probly going w/ Detroit. Just debating how much to bet on this.

[Cordoba25]

Line steadily inching upwards. Close to -120 now. More I wait, more expensive it's getting. Could always go back down but MLB not my sport and I'm no Guru on line movement so fuk it. Firing away.

Go Detroit!

[Cordoba25]

I think the line is low because Miguel Cabrera(Questionable?) and Victor martinez (15d DL) leave the Tigers in a pinch for scoring runs, hence the shutout today. Under ????

Cabrera was given the day off. He should be back in the lineup Tuesday.

[Big Bear]

I almost played Tigers before seeing the lines....

then when i look at the line i'm WTF how is Price only -112 against the A's who CAN'T HIT LEFTIES??????

something aint right

line is fishy as hell

a fair line would be Tigers -135 or -140ish

[RollinDo]

Crazy to get Price at this price...on the road where he has a better win % than at home in recent seasons...vs a team that struggles vs lefties and pretty much has the last couple years...and really is not that good.
I'm even tempted to go Tigers +1.5...seems like a slam dunk at that at least.

[trobin31]

I agree, Price was -140 to -160 against Kansas city. I really think the concern is not so much as Price's pitching as Detroit lack of offense. Oakland might be worth a look if the value keeps up

[RollinDo]

We don't know fully what the line movement is for.
Going with Detroit ML...I have played Price last 3 games, so if he loses, stick with him...In good spots, which is most games.

[TPruet87]

wish I knew RottingDo was on the Detroit ML prior to me betting it....
This dude makes leet look like a sharp. All he talks about is his under bets that lose 75% of the time. Only "under" he should worry about is living "under a bridge" after he loses all his $$ losing MLB bets.

Rant over.

[Cordoba25]

Crazy to get Price at this price...on the road where he has a better win % than at home in recent seasons...vs a team that struggles vs lefties and pretty much has the last couple years...and really is not that good.
I'm even tempted to go Tigers +1.5...seems like a slam dunk at that at least.

Please do not come into this thread (or anyone else's for that matter) and label anything as a slam dunk. I've seen you mush bets like this before. It's just dumb.. and rude.

Please stay away.

[Cordoba25]

Hmm.. line has come back down since overnight and now hovering around it's original opening mark.

I really don't get it. It's why baseball is a tough market for me. Everything I see here is Detroit as the solid pick w/ solid value.

Anyways, my bet's already made. Hope it works out.

[chipshipley]

GameDate	User/Phone	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:45302124 May 26 10:06 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 26 04:44 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [927] DET TIGERS -115 ( ACTION )	1150 / 1000
Ticket#:45302371 May 26 08:11 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 26 04:52 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [909] SFO GIANTS -137 ( ACTION )	1370 / 1000
Ticket#:45302372 May 26 08:11 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 26 04:52 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [926] MIN TWINS +130 ( ACTION )	1000 / 1300
Open Bets: 3				Total Amount: 3520 / 3300

I'm All Over it.

[Waterstpub87]

Thx for your input, Waterstpub. I guess I see the game as a bunch of tiny edges all contributing to one larger edge... Sure, not as large as a play against Philly.. and all the chalk associated w/ a game like that. But just a bunch of solid edges.

It's interesting cause your model favors Price as performing slightly worse than Chavez but advanced metrics (XFIP and SIERRA - the ones I rely on the most) show them as equal, in addition to the notion that had it not been for 1 really bad start - Price ERA would be a good deal lower. I don't know if your model includes how teams specifically fare against Righty/ Lefty pitchers in addition to past pitcher performances vs the current Team hitters they'd be facing but these are both areas I'm weighing heavily in the decision on this pick. Oak is at home but that hasn't meant much, if anything all yr.

Unless someone comes in here with someting convincing on why it's not a smart pick probly going w/ Detroit. Just debating how much to bet on this.

Just saw this now. Anyway, good luck with your pick if you made it.

I don't really like ERA prediction models like XFIP and Sierra. I don't think the earned run distinction makes alot of sense, when I am not betting on a pitchers earned run. Both of those models pull defense out, so if you don't have a way to estimate defense, it won't be counted. Estimating fielding by itself is challenging, I have yet to find a single or couple statistics to estimate it with.

I don't consider match ups against particular teams in the past at all. First, many times your sample size will be low. In this case, unless I am reading ESPN wrong, price has pitched 22 innings over the past three years against Oakland. Even if you look player to player, how many times have they really hit against price versus their career, and how much of that difference is randomness.

Left handed versus Right Handed: I don't consider this, perhaps I should. Why I haven't in the past is because your left is going to go 6 or 7 innings, maybe more, then your relievers will come in and it is difficult to estimate which handed they would. In addition, left handed pitchers are rare, so your sample size again is small. It 25% of the number of AB against right handers. To distinguish actual performance you would have to compare the skill of the left handers against the skill of the right handers they faced, to isolate the handedness factor.

[Cordoba25]

Interesting points. While I see where you're coming from about pitcher past performance vs teams and pitcher to hitter stats, I'm surprised you don't factor in how teams are performing against Righty/ Lefty starting pitchers. Yes, lefties are rare and sample size is small but I would think if a team is crushing lefties (ie; Min) it's worthing paying attention to. Same thing if it's the reverse and a team struggles against them (Boston easily comes to mind here).

Advanced metrics is something I'm new to. I like XFIP and Sierra b/c it helps w/ identifying value. Although I can't attest to it's predictive value in future ERA (I just introduced this yr in my capping) I'm sold on that it helps w/ identifying pitchers who are generally lucky/ unlucky in relation to their ERA and nothing more. Before I just used WHIP but I like this better since it includes HR rate and ground ball rate. So if a team is, let's say -150 with a starting pitcher w/ a 2.5 ERA against a so-so team but his xFIP is in the low 5s, that automatically tells me there potentially might be value on the opposite side since I would think the books are setting lines mainly on ERA and the line could potentially be inflated. He "should" be regressing to his mean at some point. Of course I still look at the game deeper and consider all factors so by no means is it end all/ be all but just another tool I use in capping.

As to the handedness factor, well... that's way out of my league. lol.

Thx for the insight. Always trying to learn from others in the know.

[Cordoba25]

Price pitched a gem as expected although A's left a ton of runners on bases. Hoped to get more runs off Chavez but he pitched a great game as well. Game a good sweat but glad she hit! yay.

[RollinDo]

Good to get 1 of 3 bets right tonight...rough night for me...seems that way cause I've been doing well lately.

[cmoney11]

GameDate	User/Phone	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:45302124 May 26 10:06 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 26 04:44 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [927] DET TIGERS -115 ( ACTION )	1150 / 1000
Ticket#:45302371 May 26 08:11 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 26 04:52 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [909] SFO GIANTS -137 ( ACTION )	1370 / 1000
Ticket#:45302372 May 26 08:11 PM	INTERNET / -1	May 26 04:52 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [926] MIN TWINS +130 ( ACTION )	1000 / 1300
Open Bets: 3				Total Amount: 3520 / 3300

I'm All Over it.

Good stuff!