Braves Friday

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 06:44 AM

Locked and loaded already. It's also a "B" bet on a run line chase system we are testing in another thread. Premise is the biggest Money Line favorite on the board will win on the Run Line at least once before they lose 6 in a row. Performed very well last season. Only one chase went to 6 games and that one cashed. Adding a M/L hedge bet where available - when the R/L offers plus odds - and you work the math on the split bet so that a push will occur if your team wins by 1. Using that feature the chase never went past 3 games last season.

lego21 · 04-10-09, 08:52 AM

Braves have shown some power and i like this play. The ML looked a bit deep but RL is the play for today.

Nice call Machine.

coreygman · 04-10-09, 09:36 AM

Go Braves, Chipper should be back after his day off also, had a bruised thumb

Plus Nats Pitcher Martis has pitched 20 innings of Pro ball, gave u 5 dingers and 13 Earned Runs

gambit718 · 04-10-09, 10:22 AM

Locked in but thinking about playing the under 8.5 as well.

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 10:59 AM

Carefull with the big chalk and the braves..These type of games will burn your roll if you play this big of chalk throughout the season. BOL

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 11:20 AM

The run line is even money.

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 11:23 AM

Have to win by 2 which also translates the same

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 11:45 AM

Well the run line is the same size chalk throughout the season. It's always 1.5 runs. Like I said, I guess you would never like that bet anyway.

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 11:46 AM

Lay big on the braves so i can get a better number on the nats

Dfjay9 · 04-10-09, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by schaapattack

Lay big on the braves so i can get a better number on the nats

are you really going to put this in every thread where someone is on the braves?

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 12:25 PM

Besides, I don't think bets on the run line have any effect on the M/L movement. I think they are completely different pools. Schaap you seem a little confused here to me.

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 12:42 PM

Not confused at all. Not everyone bets the runline sir

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by Dfjay9

are you really going to put this in every thread where someone is on the braves?

sure why not

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 12:46 PM

Not everyone does, indeed. But the play we are all referring to in this thread and the other thread is a run line bet. Has nothing to do with people paying for chalk or moving the M/L further in the Nats favor.

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 01:08 PM

finally u are paying for giving 1.5....im pointing out there are better plays out there that are plus money thats all. thanks for your input gl

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 01:09 PM

GL to you as well

whatisit · 04-10-09, 01:09 PM

This game looks like it might be rained out or delayed...ATL expecting rain later on tonight around 8.

The_Kid · 04-10-09, 01:10 PM

Nationals have to win SOMETIME so why not take them as huge underdogs?

patsfan2727 · 04-10-09, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by The_Kid

Nationals have to win SOMETIME so why not take them as huge underdogs?

please tell me this is not the way you handicap a game...

and +185 doesn't seem to be a HUGE underdog to me. Huge underdogs (in any sport) are +200 or above, IMO.

just for your knowledge, you can parlay two -135 favorites, and get a payout of like +210.

please don't bet the nats. unless you have a better reason than "gosh darn it thats a nice group of guys who deserve to win SOMETIME"......

SportsChic · 04-10-09, 01:20 PM

I agree with you pats...Atlanta will take this game easily with Lowe on the mound and it being opening night for the team. I agree that the Nats arent really that bad of a team and could take a game in this series, but not tonight...to many things working against them.

The_Kid · 04-10-09, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

please tell me this is not the way you handicap a game...

and +185 doesn't seem to be a HUGE underdog to me. Huge underdogs (in any sport) are +200 or above, IMO.

just for your knowledge, you can parlay two -135 favorites, and get a payout of like +210.

please don't bet the nats. unless you have a better reason than "gosh darn it thats a nice group of guys who deserve to win SOMETIME"......

I don't do that blindly because I do agree that I won't take a team just because I think they're "due" for a win. I know the words probably came out the wrong way. I don't think their offense is that bad. The Nationals have a lot of young, good talent. I know Lowe pitched an outstanding opener but Turner Field is not a pitcher's ballpark. Plus, it's not like the Braves hitters have faced Martis a lot and know what to expect.

tyler36 · 04-10-09, 01:33 PM

Hopefully no let down in this spot, i'm going huge on Atlanta!!!

patsfan2727 · 04-10-09, 01:35 PM

I won't lie, I pretty much blindly bet against the nats on the RL every game. I live about 30 min from DC and watch all their games, even been to a few (to see the Mets play, not the nats). They are the MOST depressing team with the least hope of a postseason berth. Please reconsider your wager!

The_Kid · 04-10-09, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

I won't lie, I pretty much blindly bet against the nats on the RL every game. I live about 30 min from DC and watch all their games, even been to a few (to see the Mets play, not the nats). They are the MOST depressing team with the least hope of a postseason berth. Please reconsider your wager!

Well, I for the last two games against Florida but it would be 3-0 for the season. Maybe you should start tracking a thread about this, patsfan.

pimike · 04-10-09, 01:48 PM

gl nats are bad

khaliagent · 04-10-09, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by tyler36

hopefully no let down in this spot, i'm going huge on atlanta!!!

dont do it

i know alot of us got burned by not taking the nats with this much value last year as they came through time and again.

Its a no play or nats all the way

Dexter · 04-10-09, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by schaapattack

Carefull with the big chalk and the braves..These type of games will burn your roll if you play this big of chalk throughout the season. BOL

another guy with the "be careful" posts....lol - you're hilarious schappy.

people who know how to manage their money dont get burned schappo. machine choice seems to be pretty solid with money mgmt

Dexter · 04-10-09, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by schaapattack

sure why not

wow, you're amazing schaap.

why do you feel the need to act like such a wise ass?

you're so transparent.

Dexter · 04-10-09, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Besides, I don't think bets on the run line have any effect on the M/L movement. I think they are completely different pools. Schaap you seem a little confused here to me.

Originally posted by schaapattack

Not confused at all. Not everyone bets the runline sir

thats exactly correct jello.

but schaap - the posts you keep replying to today involve people betting the RL on atl. you keep making these wiseass comments that we should keep betting the braves so you get more money on the nats. when in actuality, you're not getting any help on your ML. do you understand how baseball odds work? if not, shoot me a pm.

Machine Choice · 04-10-09, 06:34 PM

Game time.

Machine Choice · 04-10-09, 07:27 PM

Boom

whatisit · 04-10-09, 07:30 PM

Hope they can get through 5 before rain picks up

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 07:32 PM

Is this one going to make it 5 innings though? It's pouring in Atlanta. I think we'll get a long delay and lose Lowe. Maybe Cox comes back with Bennett or Carlyle. I trust those two in long situations. I hope he doesn't send Campillo out there for extended innings.

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 07:38 PM

Rain delay and it's dumping.

I almost want this to get called. If it goes more than an hour he won't send Lowe back out there. And I don't trust the Braves bullpen to hold both these runs for us.