ESPN Streak For Cash MLB Evaluation

[Stokes36]

This is some really remarkable work you guys....Helluva damn job. Bravo!! Bravo!!!

[jakejd82]

Started 2013. Only got the first 2 weeks in, I will try and work on it more this weekend.

[McCarthyFam]

Started 2013. Only got the first 2 weeks in, I will try and work on it more this weekend.

Awesome, any help works! I just finished up July. Thats it for me today. I'll wrap up 2014 season tomorrow. If someone wants to work on it, be my guest.

[McCarthyFam]

This is some really remarkable work you guys....Helluva damn job. Bravo!! Bravo!!!

Thanks! Hopefully all this effort pays off and we find something!

[grey area]

Streak of winners is over if you ended up playing the Whitesox anyways like I did even when I was not feeling it much.

May
1st 3-1

[teecee]

3-1? What plays did you have?

[McCarthyFam]

2014 Season is complete!

[Optional]

2014 Season is complete!

I just fixed the sheet so the extra rows you added over 1000 now calculate properly.

I'll fix the otehr sheets so they have 1200 rows setup instead of 1000.

There are a bunch of hidden columns used for calculation data, if you need to add more rows you need to select the last empty row that is already setup and copy that entire row down as many extra rows as you need.


here's 2014 final results

[Optional]

If you had taken all picks with less than 10% support when the game was either warmer or hot you would have ended up +$5573 based on $100 flat bets in 2014.

That trend appears to be holding so far in 2015.

Interesting to see if it carries back to 2013 and 2012 too when that data is finsihed.

[McCarthyFam]

If you had taken all picks with less than 10% support when the game was either warmer or hot you would have ended up +$5573 based on $100 flat bets in 2014.

That trend appears to be holding so far in 2015.

Interesting to see if it carries back to 2013 and 2012 too when that data is finsihed.

I believe we will see this carry back into previous years! At least that is what i'm hoping! thanks for fixing it. i knew the bankroll chart didn't look right. just didn't know how to fix it. need excel for dummies..haha

[jakejd82]

I will continue on 2013 today.

[trendon]

Well, I really like the Phillies tonight and everyone - including nearly 98% of ESPN - is on Atlanta. Let's get this!

[Buckandadime]

That's a lot of work guys.. I hope it pays off for you in a big way!

[McCarthyFam]

ive decided to only play warmer and hot plays myself. but everyone can use the data however they want.

[Semper Fidelis]

If you had taken all picks with less than 10% support when the game was either warmer or hot you would have ended up +$5573 based on $100 flat bets in 2014.

That trend appears to be holding so far in 2015.

Interesting to see if it carries back to 2013 and 2012 too when that data is finsihed.

Great analysis, and thanks for the work! Can't quite tell (on my phone) - does it show the winning % as well as average odds? Trying to calculate the profit for standard Kelly criterion betting (i.e. betting specified % of bankroll each wager).

Great thread we have here - thanks to all contributing!

[ebbearsfb1]

nice thread.. missed the earlier plays but looks like cubs are a play since they are "warmer"

[ebbearsfb1]

Padres and angels to tonight

[Optional]

ive decided to only play warmer and hot plays myself. but everyone can use the data however they want.

Once you pick the angle/s you want to bet, we can do a sheet to break down those picks and maybe calculate a staking strategy to go with it to maximize returns.

Great analysis, and thanks for the work! Can't quite tell (on my phone) - does it show the winning % as well as average odds? Trying to calculate the profit for standard Kelly criterion betting (i.e. betting specified % of bankroll each wager).

Great thread we have here - thanks to all contributing!

It doesn't show the % but easy to add.

Sheet is here and easier to read: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I agree a staking plan is the second part of the puzzle. Rating each pick and using Kelly, or even something more basic. Maybe varying bet size between $50 and $150 based on play ratings with an aim to keep the $100 bet size average but bet more on the higher confidence picks.



I should correct myself too. The sheet is calculating betting as Risk/Win $100 per bet. Not flat betting $100 as I said. Personally I think flat betting is much smarter than risk/win but did the calcs that way as most Americans seem to bet that way.

[grey area]

3-1? What plays did you have?

Sorry just seen this now been out of town, plays are based on favorites left off the list of games available to pick on the streak for the cash.

Today we have eight off Was, Pit, Atl, Cws, Lad, Hou, Col and Laa

Not sure how last few days have turned out but will know after caught up back capping with my systems and filters.

Only Braves and Dodgers pass as playable so far to me

May:
1st 3-1
2nd 7-5
3rd 3-1
4th 1-2
5th 3-3

[grey area]

One game postponed and Laa/Sea game did not count in fact yesterday.

[teecee]

Oh, okay. Guess I just missed something. Sorry about that.

[grey area]

Oh, okay. Guess I just missed something. Sorry about that.

No worries, just something I noticed worth following and tracking.

In the red last two days, three times last month had B2B days in the negative

Today looks like some familiar sides from yesterday, Was, Pit, Cws, Kc and Oak for todays

[ebbearsfb1]

3 and 14 since i started... man im do do

[McCarthyFam]

3 and 14 since i started... man im do do

i'd recommend looking into all of the excel charts before placing your bets. it seems if you pick your spots, you'll come out profitable

[McCarthyFam]

thank you to who ever has been updating 2015. Haven't had much time the past few days to get around to a laptop. have just been on from my phone.

[McCarthyFam]

2015 is up to date.

Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gzg/edit#gid=0

[McCarthyFam]

the streak contest began on 8/25/2008. I am going to try and back test this to 2008. If anyone is interested in helping out, please feel free to! we are now back to August 2012. I am going to try and complete 2012 season today!

[McCarthyFam]

Record is up to date for 2015!

Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gzg/edit#gid=0

Overall
Win	Loss	$
141	151	$482.00

[trendon]

***Warning: Completely anecdotal and subject to confirmation bias!!!***

I've been paying attention to this thread since the beginning and it SEEMS that it works fairly well if you find a game 15% or below (regardless of warmth) that also has RLM if you go to a few of the other sites that are popular and tally percentages. Again, I could just be remembering the times I won games with this set of parameters, but I can't imagine it being a bad strategy. If the total squares at ESPN are on the same side as the kinda-square players on the various handicapper sites AND the line is moving the other way ... it can't hurt to at least take a peek.

For instance, based on this, I really like the Cubs tonight. You've got "everyone" on Washington, on the road, against a quality Cubs team at home, with a pitcher (Zimmerman) that has a short history of getting shelled at Wrigley. Gonna give it a whirl.

[dugdogg]

Record is up to date for 2015!

Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gzg/edit#gid=0

Overall
Win	Loss	$
141	151	$482.00

are there going to be any more updates to this doc?