2015 SDQL Baseball Thread

posey · 05-20-15, 11:56 PM

5/20

Diamondbacks @ Marlins, Diamondbacks +126, W, +1.26 u.
Diamondbacks @ Marlins, Diamondbacks +126, Push, +0.00 u.

1-0, +1.26 u.

Record: 33-23, +13.13 u.

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 08:36 AM

Season to date : 67-61 + 5.77 units
Yesterday's results : 3-2 + .65 units

Arizona came through and under, Giants under winner. Jays and Orioles losers.

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 08:39 AM

Today's plays:

Play Mariners even

AD and (SG = 1 or SG = 3) and playoffs = 0 and streak > -4 and -8 < o:streak < 6 and -7 < p:margin < 10 and -10 < op:margin < 9 and p:runs < 13 and op:runs != 0 and p:hits > 1 and 3 < op:hits < 15 and op:doubles < 6 and p:triples < 3 and op:triples < 2 and p:SO > 3 and 2 < op:SO < 17 and 3 < p:ground balls < 21 and 2 < op:ground balls < 24 and p:fly balls < 16 and 2 < op:fly balls < 16 and op:BPRA < 9 and 1.5 < p:SIP < 8.1 and 1.9 < op:SIP < 8.5 and 33 < p:SPT < 116 and 48 < op:SPT < 111 and op:SHF < 34 and 27 < p:batters faced < 46 and 28 < op:batters faced < 57 and p:at bats + p:walks < 48 and op:at bats + op:walks < 46 and 0 < p:TLOB < 12 and 0 < op:TLOB < 13 and (14 > site streak > 5 or -1 > site streak > -12) and (1 < o:site streak < 10 or -11 < o:site streak < -5) and (conference = AL or o:conference = NL) and op:RMAX < 8 and op:R1 < 5 and op:R2 < 4 and op:R3 < 3 and p:errors < 3 and op:errors < 4 and os:SHA < 12 and os:SRA < 7 and 0 < os:SWA < 5 and s:SPT > 83 and starter rest < 12 and s:SIP > 4.9 and s:SHF > 21 and s:SSO < 10 and op:BL < 8 and 2 < p:PU < 7 and -39 < tS(margin, N=10) - oS(margin, N=10) < 32 and oS(HR, N=10) > 4 and 3 < tS(HR, N=10) < 19 and oS(doubles, N=10) < 29 and tS(hits, N=10) > 63 and 65 < oS(hits, N=10) < 105 and line < 225 and day != Sunday and oss:SHA < 11 and oss:SHRA < 3 and game number > 24 and tS(margin, N=20) - oS(margin, N=20) < 43 and tS(hits, N=20) - oS(hits, N=20) < 27 (Bases )

ROI 37 %

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 08:43 AM

Play Blue Jays -115
Play Braves -130

starter rest - o:starter rest = 1 and (A or day != Monday) and (H or day != Friday) and 4 < starter rest < 11 and -2 < p:margin < 9 and -11 < op:margin < 8 and -10 < streak < 3 and -10 < o:streak < 6 and site streak < 8 and o:site streak < 8 and -29 < tS(margin, N=10) < 24 and -13 < oS(margin, N=10) < 15 and 15 < tS(hits, N=3) < 36 and tS(HR, N=10) < 14 and 18 < oS(hits, N=3) < 36 and 4 < oS(HR, N=10) < 17 and os:SSO < 10 and os:SWA < 5 and oS(margin, N=10) - tS(margin, N=10) > -15 and tS(hits, N=10) - oS(hits, N=10) > -23 and (game number > 139 or game number < 122) ( Bases )

I hate Dickey but he's gotta get a win sometime.

ROI 26%

bking79 · 05-21-15, 09:32 AM

bluejays burn me everytime i bet them im done with them

bking79 · 05-21-15, 09:33 AM

there bullpins awful they dont hit i would take angels its the rite side fellas

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 09:44 AM

Ya the fade query lists angels again. Me too but I'm still feeling Jays at home solid. Dbacks yesterday.

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 09:45 AM

Play Rays - 109

HF and p:A and -7 < p:margin < 0 and tS(W, N=12) > 6 and 0 < s:SRA < 5 and season > 2008 ( Bases )

ROI 24%

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 10:02 AM

Bonus NBA plays for us:

Houston at Golden St OVER 220 -- In game one, James Harden led the Rockets in scoring with 28 points with Ariza chipping in 20 on 7-of-10 shooting including 4-of-5 from the arc. When Ariza is making shots, he is not shy about focusing on offense. The Rockets are 6-0 OU in franchise history with less than two days rest after a game in which Ariza shot better than 65% from the field, flying over by an average of 21.6 ppg without the benefit of a single overtime. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Rockets and Trevor Ariza

:FGP>65 and rest<2

Also, Houston is 7-0 OU (11.50 ppg) since the start of the 2013 season on the road after a road loss in which James Harden was their high scorer. The SDQL text for this one is:

A and James Harden

oints=max

oints and p:AL and season>=2013

As a team, Houston is 7-0 OU as a dog with less than two days rest off a loss that was tied at least five times, going over by 15.2 ppg on the average. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:

team=Rockets and D and rest<2 and p:TT>=6 and p:L and date>=20131213

Golden St trailed by 16 points early in game one but came roaring back in the second quarter and ended up with the four-point win. The Warriors are 7-0 OU off a win in which they trailed by 15-plus points, with six of the seven games coming from this season. The SDQL text is:

team=Warriors and p:W and po:BL>=15 and date>=20140416

Looking only at the playoffs, the Warriors are 9-0 OU in the history of our database after a win in which they trailed by 8-plus points, eclipsing the OU line by an average of 21.9 ppg. The SDQL text is:

playoffs=1 and team=Warriors and p:W and po:BL>=8

Take the OVER.

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 10:03 AM

Houston +10.5 over GOLDEN ST -- The Rockets have been aeoONae in this spot, going 9-0 ATS since the start of the 2013 season on the road after a loss in which they scored at least 50 points in the paint. The SDQL text is:
team=Rockets and A and p:L and p:PIP>=50 and season >= 2013

Note that Houston has won every game straight up and they were favored in only three of the nine. In addition, Houston is 11-0 ATS (+11.45 ppg) as a dog off a game as an away dog in which three or fewer players scored in double-digits. In the series opener, Golden State was led by reigning MVP Steph Curry, who shot 6-of-11 from the arc, after shooting 8-of-13 from long distance in their series-clinching win over the Warriors. Many might use these data as a reason to play on the Warriors. However, Golden St is 0-8 ATS since the start of the 2012 NBA season at home with Curry shot better than 50% from the arc in each of their last two games. They are only 3-5 straight up with each of the SU wins coming as a favorite of at least a dozen points. Check it out by running this SDQL text:

H and Stephen Curry

p:TPP>50 and Stephen Curry

:TPP>50 and season >= 2012

Golden St should be a bit overconfident here. Grab the big number.

bking79 · 05-21-15, 10:21 AM

-120 <= t:line <= 120 and p:margin >= 3 and SG = SGS and season >= 2011 and month < 6 cardinals and giants

bking79 · 05-21-15, 10:23 AM

nice over it is nice info alex

Yons18 · 05-21-15, 03:09 PM

I love how this is the only thread on SBR that is taking ATL. Everyone is on MIL and I love it. ATL has a 15-0 trend going for them tonight.

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by Yons18

I love how this is the only thread on SBR that is taking ATL. Everyone is on MIL and I love it. ATL has a 15-0 trend going for them tonight.

Right on bud. Best of luck!

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 03:47 PM

Play Indians vs White Sox under 8.5 -115

t:team=Indians and o:streak<=-2 and SG>1 and o:WP>42 and date>=20140700
(Dr.M )

0 and 16 under in this spot

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by bking79

nice over it is nice info alex

I try to share when I pick something up. Hope it hits for us!

JMon · 05-21-15, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

I try to share when I pick something up. Hope it hits for us!

Is that Dr. M's 5 star?

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Is that Dr. M's 5 star?

4.5 star on both
5 star was under in Atl hawk game last nite that hit but I didnt have a chance to post. These guys have been good though in playoffs.

terrortwylight · 05-21-15, 07:59 PM

Thanks for your hard work in this thread guys. Love checking in here and attempting to make sense of this stuff. Wish I understood SDQL. Seems like an awesome way of looking at the trends but I can not wrap my head around it.

Yons18 · 05-21-15, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by Yons18

I love how this is the only thread on SBR that is taking ATL. Everyone is on MIL and I love it. ATL has a 15-0 trend going for them tonight.

I don't understand people who neglect trends and focus only on stats. Baseball is a game of runs (literally). Anyways, cash this as well and make the trend now 16-0. Also, really like the research going on in this thread. I'm not too knowledgeable of SDQL, but I definitely understand the importance of it when making picks in baseball. BOL guys.

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 10:51 PM

Today's results : 4-1 + 3 units
Season to date : 71-62 + 8.77 units

Rays, White Sox under, Braves, Jays winners and Mariners losers.

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 11:29 PM

Tomorrow's plays :

Play Royals - 115
Play Indians -160
Play Royals under 7.5 -120
Play Indians Under 7.5 -115

conference=NL and o:conference=AL and A and 230>=line>-105 and month<8 and 9.5>=total>=7 ( JMon )

Alex Vaile · 05-21-15, 11:32 PM

Play Cubs -145

A and A(starter whip@starter and season, N=3)<2.50 and A(o:starter whip@o:starter and o:season, N=3)>=2.25 and 2012<=season and line<=160 and rest=0 and 9.5>=total>=8 and month!=8 ( JMon )

A little juicy and I have a conflicting query but this query has been hot so I'm going with it.

posey · 05-22-15, 01:35 AM

Record: 33-23, +13.13 u.

5/22

Padres @ Dodgers
Over 6.5 +104

A - tA(runs, N=5) <= 1 and DIV
OU: 27-16-1 (1.06, 62.8%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: +$990 / -$1,425 ROI: +20.8% / -28.9%

B - starter = Andrew Cashner and AD
OU: 8-3-0 (2.14, 72.7%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$490 / -$605 ROI: +41.7% / -48.4%

C - starter = Zack Greinke and HF and team = Dodgers and season > 2013
OU: 15-5-1 (1.45, 75.0%) avg total: 6.7 over / under: +$995 / -$1,150 ROI: +43.7% / -48.9%

D - team = Dodgers and HF and day = Friday and season > 2011
OU: 22-12-3 (1.62, 64.7%) avg total: 6.9 over / under: +$915 / -$1,275 ROI: +23.0% / -30.6%

E - team = Dodgers and streak <= -3 and season > 2012
OU: 13-6-1 (1.15, 68.4%) avg total: 7.2 over / under: +$630 / -$840 ROI: +28.6% / -38.1%

F - team = Padres and AD and SG = 1 and season > 2011 and total < 9
OU: 32-21-3 (1.72, 60.4%) avg total: 7.5 over / under: +$872 / -$1,475 ROI: +14.3% / -23.7%

G - team = Dodgers and HF and o:STR and season > 2013
OU: 52-21-3 (1.62, 71.2%) avg total: 7.0 over / under: +$2,990 / -$3,720 ROI: +36.7% / -43.3%

posey · 05-22-15, 03:13 AM

Rangers @ Yankees
Under 7.5 +102

A - starter = Michael Pineda and H
OU: 5-13-4 (-1.20, 27.8%) avg total: 7.1 over / under: -$895 / +$745 ROI: -37.8% / +30.1%

B - team = Yankees and HF and day = Friday and season > 2010 and line < -130
OU: 8-20-2 (-1.18, 28.6%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$1,350 / +$1,110 ROI: -41.7% / +33.0%

C - team = Yankees and SG = 1 and date > 20110413 and HF and -210 < line < -117 and NGT and total < 10.5
OU: 20-41-3 (-0.78, 32.8%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$2,428 / +$1,905 ROI: -34.9% / +26.8%

D - team = Rangers and AD and date > 20140430 and 120 < line < 190 and C and total < 9.5
OU: 16-31-2 (-0.44, 34.0%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$1,800 / +$1,340 ROI: -33.5% / +24.7%

E - team = Rangers and p:runs + op:runs < 6 and A and p:A and date > 20130630
OU: 9-19-0 (0.07, 32.1%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$1,125 / +$900 ROI: -37.4% / +28.5%

Alex Vaile · 05-22-15, 08:36 AM

Play Yankees RL - 1.5 + 115

starter rest - o:starter rest = 1 and (A or day != Monday) and (H or day != Friday) and 4 < starter rest < 11 and -2 < p:margin < 9 and -11 < op:margin < 8 and -10 < streak < 3 and -10 < o:streak < 6 and site streak < 8 and o:site streak < 8 and -29 < tS(margin, N=10) < 24 and -13 < oS(margin, N=10) < 15 and 15 < tS(hits, N=3) < 36 and tS(HR, N=10) < 14 and 18 < oS(hits, N=3) < 36 and 4 < oS(HR, N=10) < 17 and os:SSO < 10 and os:SWA < 5 and oS(margin, N=10) - tS(margin, N=10) > -15 and tS(hits, N=10) - oS(hits, N=10) > -23 and (game number > 139 or game number < 122) ( Bases )

Alex Vaile · 05-22-15, 08:40 AM

Play Blue Jays + 135
Play Braves - 135

p:errors = 0 and op:errors = 1 and (H or SG > 1) and SG < 5 and SGS > 2 and SGS - SG < 3 and (H or day != Saturday) and ((H and -215 < line < 142) or (A and -200 < line < 175)) and (conference = AL or o:conference = NL) and op:HR < 3 and p:runs > 2 and p:margin > -2 and 12 > pp:margin > -9 and streak < 5 and -7 < o:streak < 3 and p:SO < 14 and game number > 13 and -21 < tS(margin, N=10) < 29 and -30 < oS(margin, N=10) < 26 and s:SHA > 1 and s:SWA < 6 and s:SSO < 11 and s:SIP > 1.9 and s:SHF > 21 and s:SPT < 121 and 4 < starter rest < 17 and os:SRA < 7 and os:SWA < 6 and 20 < os:SHF < 33 and os:SIP < 8.1 and o:starter rest < 10 and op:runs < 9 and opp:runs < 13 and oppp:runs < 11 and oS(runs, N=10) > 21 and tS(HR, N=10) < 19 and tS(walks, N=10) > 16 and 42 < tS(SO, N=10) < 86 and site streak > -10 and o:site streak > -8 and op:SII < 5 and p:RMAX > 1 and oss:SHF > 13 and oss:SPT > 73 and -5 < tS(W, N=10) - oS(W, N=10) < 6 and -8 < tS(errors, N=10) - oS(errors, N=10) < 6 and opp:RMAX < 5 ( Bases )

Alex Vaile · 05-22-15, 08:43 AM

Play Twins + 120

DIV and D and p:W and 40 <= o:WP < 48

Alex Vaile · 05-22-15, 10:00 AM

Today's NBA pick: Take Atlanta Hawks -1.5 (MTI)

Atlanta -1.5 over CLEVELAND -- The Cavs are a very good team, but not good enough to beat the Hawks twice in a row in Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Championship. We are on the Hawks.
Quality player-based trends abound for this one. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS (-9.88 ppg) off of a road game in which Tristan Thompson shot better than 65% from the field and 0-6 ATS (-12.75 ppg) after a road game in which Kyrie Irving had a positive plus/minus.

For the Hawks, we note that they are 7-0 ATS (7.79 ppg) at home after a loss in which Demarre Carroll scored fewer than 10 points and 7-0 ATS (5.57 ppg) after Kyle Korver a loss in which had a negative plus/minus.

Also, Atlanta is 10-0 ATS at home off any game in which Jeff Teague was their high scorer and had an assist-to-turnover ratio of less than 8. The SDQL text is:

H and Jeff Teague

oints=max

oints and Jeff Teague

:ATR<8 and date>=20141128

Note that all of the games are from THIS season and Atlanta won every game straight up by at least seven points.

Our most compelling exhibit is a league-wide, multi-season, playoff-only system that really makes good handicapping sense. In the playoffs, teams with less than two days rest off a regulation loss by more than three points as a favorite in a game that was tied at least five times are 24-3 ATS. Here is the SDQL for your use:

playoffs=1 and rest<2 and p:TT>=5 and p:OT=0 and p:F and p:margin<=-3 and date>=20110426

Note that this system is 10-0 ATS its last ten and 5-0 ATS THIS playoffs.

We can tighten this one up by looking only at the top two seeds. So the situation is: One and Two seeds with less than two days rest off a regulation loss by more than three points as a favorite in a game that was tied at least five times. The SDQL text is:

seed<3 and playoffs=1 and rest<2 and p:TT>=5 and p:OT=0 and p:LF and p:margin<=-3 and date>=20100600

These teams are 16-0 ATS winning straight up by an average of 15.9 ppg. Wow. This month there has been two active dates: The Hawks 106-90 win over the Wizards and the Warriors 101-84 win over Memphis.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that teams led by Lebron are 1-6 ATS in the second game of a playoff series after winning the first -- including 0-3 ATS with the Cavs. Lay the small number.

JMon · 05-22-15, 01:10 PM

Thought I'd share a NHL play if you wish to play or not...

Lightening..

Home favs (on 1 or 2 days rest) of 100 to 150 keeping momentum off an overtime win; holding their oppts of 2.55 or less goals on the season ( by adding playoffs=1 we see this spot hit 80%).

H and -150 <= line <= -100 and tA(o:goals) <= 2.55 and p:W and p

vertime > 0 and 0 < rest < 3

Alex Vaile · 05-22-15, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Thought I'd share a NHL play if you wish to play or not...

Lightening..

Home favs (on 1 or 2 days rest) of 100 to 150 keeping momentum off an overtime win; holding their oppts of 2.55 or less goals on the season ( by adding playoffs=1 we see this spot hit 80%).

H and -150 <= line <= -100 and tA(o:goals) <= 2.55 and p:W and p

vertime > 0 and 0 < rest < 3

Right on JMon. I'll play it thanks.

Alex Vaile · 05-22-15, 05:39 PM

Braves a no play due to pitching change.

Alex Vaile · 05-23-15, 01:19 AM

Rough day in here. Cubs blew it late twice.
Today's results : 3-5 - 2.6 units
Season to date: 74-67 + 6.17 units

Royals, Royals under, Indians winners and Yankees RL, Twins, Jays, Cubs and Indians under losers and Braves no play due to pitching change. Tomorrow is going to be a better day!

posey · 05-23-15, 02:45 AM

5/22

Padres @ Dodgers, Over 6.5 +104, L, -1.00 u.

Rangers @ Yankees, Under 7.5 +102, L, -1.00 u.

0-2, -2.00 u.

Record: 33-25, +11.13 u.

posey · 05-23-15, 04:03 AM

Wasn't there a command to show all results of a query on one page as opposed to only the last 100? I've forgot it and haven't saved it on my new laptop.