" Dog of the Day"

**RollinDo** · 05-12-15, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by posey

Look. A total starts at 7.0 with +120 on the over. Then the total moves to 7.0 and there's the over for +120. The old over is +100. That's nothing. Don't be fooled by the numbers. They look bigger than they are. The difference isn't even 5%. In soccer you sometimes have 25% difference or drops or increases.

I believe we don't understand why a line moves many times...could be a number of reasons as you said.
Let's just see how those plays I listed play out...not trying to prove anything...might be off on all....just trying to track more the validity of the movement...I have backed off a few bets because of it and I'm glad....and a few that I played ignoring it.
Thanks for your input Posey.

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 04:15 PM

coming next hour, Mr posey teaches blind kids to see!!

**44 Mag** · 05-12-15, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Let's track what happens tonight...biggest line moves I've seen in these today:

Cleveland ML
Houston ML
Philly Over
TB Under
Twins +1.5

Brother, this is "Dog of the Day" ???? I think. What's with the 5 picks ???? LOL. Or just sharing info????

**azsportswin** · 05-12-15, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i was all over mil ml, rl, and over8 last night, a lot of that was fading sharks terrible numbers against them tho. i tried to convince myself to play brew crew overnight but couldnt pull the trigger, kinda figured if anything i might get little better number if i slept on it. no doubt proving once again that "im no line movement expert guy".

Hey Bank...what are your thoughts on your Cardinals line moving to +127 in Cleveland tonight?

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Brother, this is "Dog of the Day" ???? I think. What's with the 5 picks ???? LOL. Or just sharing info????

next time he shares any info worth reading will be the 1st time, so that cant be it..

**jameski999** · 05-12-15, 04:44 PM

Banker what's your take on your Cards in this early game?

**o2manscot** · 05-12-15, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Let's track what happens tonight...biggest line moves I've seen in these today:

Cleveland ML
Houston ML
Philly Over
TB Under
Twins +1.5

FWIW, I have followed line movements for quite some time and enjoyed moderate success betting from a contrarian standpoint. Of these examples, Cleveland and the Tampa U have significant reverse line movement at this time since they both have less than 1/3 of bets on them. Of course this is not a stand-alone system and I always use in conjunction with my own handicapping, but it can identify where the sharp money is going.

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by azsportswin

Hey Bank...what are your thoughts on your Cardinals line moving to +127 in Cleveland tonight?

i thought it should have been there from the jump to be honest.. ive been high on carrasco since i can remember, played him as a dog in kc and would have loved to get that here. his splits vs lefties are very close to what they are against rhb in his career, actually better vs lefties so far this year.

on the other side lynn's splits are not what you would want to see against a tribe lineup loaded with lhb.

lynn vs lefties in his career

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Year-by-Year: vs LHB

Click year to see all splits · SHARE using Permanent Link

2011	16	55	48	6	11	2	0	2	0	0	7	17	2.43	.229	.327	.396	.723	19	0	0	0	0	1	0	.310	144	99
2012	35	370	309	39	84	14	5	11	3	5	53	69	1.30	.272	.384	.456	.841	141	5	4	3	1	3	2	.317	131	132
2013	33	380	317	36	82	16	6	6	5	4	49	71	1.45	.259	.361	.404	.765	128	6	5	3	6	0	0	.309	118	113
2014	33	378	336	28	82	21	2	6	0	1	39	65	1.67	.244	.325	.372	.697	125	3	2	0	1	0	9	.286	111	100
2015	6	66	57	8	15	5	1	2	0	0	7	12	1.71	.263	.354	.491	.845	28	0	1	1	0	1	0	.302	131	131
Career Total	123	1249	1067	117	274	58	14	27	8	10	155	234	1.51	.257	.355	.413	.768	441	14	12	7	8	5	11	.303	122

this year it been even worse. cards pen is starting to show signs of not being the greatest pen in history, lol. tribe pen has actually been getting better and i think the offense is getting close to being where it should. oh and cards have sucked on the road with a off day the last number of years, tends to be a flat spot for them it seems.

i lean strongly to the over but was little surprised when i saw cle pen has been much better of late. i still think 7.5 is too low, i have no problem saying tribe will get at least 3 off lynn and run him sometime in the 6th which outta leave a few more runs to be had against our pen. other side while i expect carrasco to be good i dont think it will be lights out shutdown good against our lineup minus a pitcher. when it all said and done i think we talking 5-3 tribe, although i wrote down 6-3 several times when doing this gm. either one would work for tribe and over which ill be on in some shape or form.

**44 Mag** · 05-12-15, 04:58 PM

OK, when all is said and done, are you on Cleveland -1.5 for +155.???
when it all said and done i think we talking 5-3 tribe, although i wrote down 6-3 several times when doing this gm. either one would work for tribe and over which ill be on in some shape or form.

**Buckandadime** · 05-12-15, 04:59 PM

YTD
4-2 +1.6

5/12
Colorado + 180

**azsportswin** · 05-12-15, 05:01 PM

Thanks for the great info Bank.....over seems to be the way to go in this one. G/L tonight!

**44 Mag** · 05-12-15, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by Buckandadime

YTD
4-2 +1.6

5/12
Colorado + 180

Nice payday if she hits brother.

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by o2manscot

FWIW, I have followed line movements for quite some time and enjoyed moderate success betting from a contrarian standpoint. Of these examples, Cleveland and the Tampa U have significant reverse line movement at this time since they both have less than 1/3 of bets on them. Of course this is not a stand-alone system and I always use in conjunction with my own handicapping, but it can identify where the sharp money is going.

i had a stretch last season where i was crushing the number and beating close by 20 cents or more left and right. pretty much every play i did got beat to the point i stopped betting overnights and started fading 20 cent or more moves somewhat blindly and got really hot doing so. dont remember how long it lasted as im sure i didnt take it all that far, it was just a little hot pocket in the ebbs and flows of the mlb season.

that clown rollindouche seriously thinks because he noticed a few line moves and gm went that way he all a sudden on to something. lol.. what you doing is a lot more like actual handicapping of which he has no concept.

**mikmik** · 05-12-15, 05:04 PM

0-2 - 200 Jays +110

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

OK, when all is said and done, are you on Cleveland -1.5 for +155.???
when it all said and done i think we talking 5-3 tribe, although i wrote down 6-3 several times when doing this gm. either one would work for tribe and over which ill be on in some shape or form.

oh no. not for thread, i prefer to stick to dogs my man.. i have a smallish play on rl +160 and a normal play on ov 7.5.

**RollinDo** · 05-12-15, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by o2manscot

FWIW, I have followed line movements for quite some time and enjoyed moderate success betting from a contrarian standpoint. Of these examples, Cleveland and the Tampa U have significant reverse line movement at this time since they both have less than 1/3 of bets on them. Of course this is not a stand-alone system and I always use in conjunction with my own handicapping, but it can identify where the sharp money is going.

Good stuff...thanks man...just taking it all in and throwing out a little trash here and there.

**44 Mag** · 05-12-15, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

oh no. not for thread, i prefer to stick to dogs my man.. i have a smallish play on rl +160 and a normal play on ov 7.5.

Well, in that case best of luck on the play: Cleveland -1.5 and the over.

**mrginandtonic** · 05-12-15, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

5/11

cin -1.5 @ +155

ytd: 8-14 @ -2.14

Bad choice yesterday.....

I like a lot of the picks that you guys have for today.

MIN
TEX
BOS
TOR
MIL

I think I'm gonna do small parlay with them.

5/12

SFO @ +146

YTD8-15 @ -3.14

(Wish me luck)

**o2manscot** · 05-12-15, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i had a stretch last season where i was crushing the number and beating close by 20 cents or more left and right. pretty much every play i did got beat to the point i stopped betting overnights and started fading 20 cent or more moves somewhat blindly and got really hot doing so. dont remember how long it lasted as im sure i didnt take it all that far, it was just a little hot pocket in the ebbs and flows of the mlb season.

that clown rollindouche seriously thinks because he noticed a few line moves and gm went that way he all a sudden on to something. lol.. what you doing is a lot more like actual handicapping of which he has no concept.

I have been at this for quite some time (don't let my post count sway anyone's opinion LOL) I have been following this thread and a couple others on here and believe me when I say I have definitely figured out which members to pay close attention to and whose opinions to take more lightly.

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Good stuff...thanks man...just taking it all in except a little trash here and there.

your post are the trash.. bunch of ignorant "theories" and hyperbole trying to be disguised as informative when they nothing of the sort. lets not forget the post you waste when yo post a play you may or may not count. great job.

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by o2manscot

I have been at this for quite some time (don't let my post count sway anyone's opinion LOL) I have been following this thread and a couple others on here and believe me when I say I have definitely figured out which members to pay close attention to and whose opinions to take more lightly.

well welcome aboard my man. the more good post we can get the less i notice the ignorant. you gonna start making a play?

**44 Mag** · 05-12-15, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by o2manscot

I have been at this for quite some time (don't let my post count sway anyone's opinion LOL) I have been following this thread and a couple others on here and believe me when I say I have definitely figured out which members to pay close attention to and whose opinions to take more lightly.

Well in that case, we would love you to join us. Everybody in here value's intelligent opinions and insight. You can share with us and still play a D-O-D, or just give us info. You must see quite a few good handicappers in here??? "Banker" : "Posey" : "Mitch"; "Twestacott" "HoldinAces" our board leader, and on & on. I do not include myself in their category, but do read their insight's.

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Well in that case, we would love you to join us. Everybody in here value's intelligent opinions and insight. You can share with us and still play a D-O-D, or just give us info. You must see quite a few good handicappers in here??? "Banker" : "Posey" : "Mitch"; "Twestacott" "HoldinAces" our board leader, and on & on. I do not include myself in their category, but do read their insight's.

your so modest, yet when say "dumb luck" to describe my record yo wont hear any of it! lol

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 05:25 PM

holy cow is that sea line getting out of hand. i had no intention of playing pads but im gonna have to take another look cause they have shot up another bracket for me. lol.

**poirot86** · 05-12-15, 05:26 PM

NYM +129 for today.

I'm 11-10 +0.67

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 05:29 PM

swisher is such a bum. that pitch looked incredibly hittable to me.

**Broncos** · 05-12-15, 05:37 PM

5/12

SF +146

DOD: 3-2 (+1.37u)

**o2manscot** · 05-12-15, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

well welcome aboard my man. the more good post we can get the less i notice the ignorant. you gonna start making a play?

I may have to throw my hat in the ring one of these days, but I am not of the caliber some of the cappers in here are!!

**Holdin Aces** · 05-12-15, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

holy cow is that sea line getting out of hand. i had no intention of playing pads but im gonna have to take another look cause they have shot up another bracket for me. lol.

Once it got to +140 I had to bite for $100.

**44 Mag** · 05-12-15, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by o2manscot

I may have to throw my hat in the ring one of these days, but I am not of the caliber some of the cappers in here are!!

Well, I'm not and I am still here. Give it a shot. Of course, you are welcome anytime you choose, should you decide later on.

**BamaCBass** · 05-12-15, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Holdin Aces

16-8 +12.40

Today's pick - Texas Rangers +117

Really wanted to go with the Marlins here but that bullpen scares me. Good luck tonight fellas.

How about Marlins first five? Sorry if already posted

Edit: I realize this thread is for one favorite Dog of the Day, so sorry if off track here... GL everybody!

**44 Mag** · 05-12-15, 06:00 PM

[QUOTE=Holdin Aces;23998435]Once it got to +140 I had to bite for $100.[/QUOTE]

"Board Leader" is on this, quick grab it !!!!!!!!!

**twestacott** · 05-12-15, 06:05 PM

Mets +136

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by Holdin Aces

Once it got to +140 I had to bite for $100.

that would be exactly my thoughts on where pads worth a play. my dod coming out of the late gms, not gonna be this one as i like several doggies late but i just grabbed pads+141..gl tonight..

**2daBank** · 05-12-15, 06:06 PM

would have loved if that bomb santana hit was fair. tribe need to cash one of these opportunities.