CK's Daily Baseball Thread Leans for Wednesday 4/8/09

wangichu · 04-08-09, 01:48 AM

4-0 yesterday to put me at 6-1 on the season, hoping i'm not jinxing myself by saying that but i'm on...

leans:

love cincy. Pelfrey has looked bad coming into the season and i think he regresses. Meanwhile, volquez just got tired last year, but i think he'll be be good. Either way, reds can outslug anyone at home, especially with a considerable pitching edge

CIN ML

leans on

LAA ML
LAD -1.5
MIN -1.5

Vince Carter · 04-08-09, 04:12 AM

i'm playing:
reds -102
brewers -108
twins -146
marlins -129
blue jays -126
pirates +152

7-4 +3.035

suicidekings · 04-08-09, 06:18 AM

Leans

NYY @ BAL (+154), UNDER 9.5 (-125)
- Koji Uehara makes his ML debut after playing for 10 years in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants. Excellent control with lots of strikeouts and 56 complete games in ~220 career starts. Watching some video of him pitch, he's got some devastating stuff (striking out Barry Bonds 3 times in a game in 2002).

ATL (-103) @ PHI
- Vazquez had a strong spring / WBC with a good K/BB ratio. ATL has looked good in this series and are definitely motivated to go for the sweep of the WS champions. RLM is also a factor.

PIT @ STL, OVER 8.5 (-125)
- Duke has performed well in the past as a big dog, but not against St Louis, and Wellemeyer had a rough spring. I think Duke will outperform Wellemeyer, but both will give up a lot of runs.

LA @ SD (+160)
- Walter Silva is making his ML debut for the Padres. He's a strikeout pitcher that has issues with command of his fastball, but facing a Dodgers team that has already managed to strike out 20 times in 65 at bats, it's not a bad spot to take a chance on him. He was pursued by both the Dodgers and the Yankees going into this season.
_______________________________________
MLB 2009: 1-2

pbateman · 04-08-09, 08:21 AM

I also noticed the RLM on the Braves game. What do you think about this pick CK? I'm thinking about tailing Suicide Kings here.

pbateman · 04-08-09, 08:26 AM

Also, does anyone know who this new Orioles pitcher is? Never heard of this guy.

cocknocker · 04-08-09, 09:34 AM

pbateman,

use CBSports.com to find out who that pitcher is. There is considerable RLM on the Braves, Blanton is a horse, but he never lived up to expectations when he was with the A's. It looks pretty grim for the Brewers and Giants to lock it up tonight. It's rainy and ugly out here in California today. If that is the case, then I will not be able to get the matchup that I want in this game which is Gallardo vs Johnson. But I will stick with my other two picks anyway

solobass · 04-08-09, 10:10 AM

CK let me tell you something brother. you want to talk to me about ugly weather hells bells we were "blessed" with 5 inches of effing snow on Monday! anyway some interesting data.

Favorites/Dogs this year are falling right around historical averages after 3 days of full action complete with dogs winning 43% of games SU

Home dogs (always a value in NFL!) are 3-2 SU so far.

Tigers bullpen has blown more than games, they blow massive chunks.

espn gamecast is not as cool as mlb gameday. mlb gameday does not have video advertisements.

Only 5 out of the 23 games have been decided by 1 run.

solobass · 04-08-09, 11:00 AM

Booked plays so far

Marlins runline +130
Marlins score first +100

cocknocker · 04-08-09, 11:02 AM

I just keep on punching those dog moneylines. I love crumbs!

repski · 04-08-09, 11:11 AM

Minnesota Twins -150

-Carlos Silva was 2-8 away from home last year with a 6.70 ERA.
-Silva threw just 10 innings this spring. He gave up 22 hits and 13 runs while striking out just 4 batters.
-Slowey 25 innings this spring and gave up just 6 runs and 3 walks while striking out 22.

repski · 04-08-09, 11:13 AM

lots of serious RLM out there today....

repski · 04-08-09, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by pbateman

Also, does anyone know who this new Orioles pitcher is? Never heard of this guy.

did you even read the post 2 above yours??

solobass · 04-08-09, 11:27 AM

well at least the first inning prop cashed....nats up 1-0

cocknocker · 04-08-09, 11:43 AM

This ain't nothin' solo. Just wait until the weather warms up and the real results start coming throgh. I think everyone is now at least a little alarmed at how frequent a run scores in the 1st inning now. A lot of the detractors thought that my system was a joke before the season began. But I don't like to play them in April as it seems to be a break even month. I like those months when you get 50 or more of them to come back as winners over losses, and pick up a cool 15 dimes with no homework involved.

suicidekings · 04-08-09, 12:14 PM

CK: What's your opinion on the NYY/BAL game? I feel like the price given on Uehara is generous considering his history and Wang's relatively high ERA vs Baltimore in his career.

laxdjock · 04-08-09, 12:23 PM

The Yanks pen is going to struggle against the O's. Unless Wang goes 7, the O's are going to hang some runs.

SlicWilly3 · 04-08-09, 01:04 PM

Loving the under fella's in the Atl/Philly game. I don't see this game going over 8 runs. Both previous games were low scoring, and with Vazquez and Blanton on the mound.....And Philly's bat silent. I don't expect any different.
I also really like the Cubs tonight with Lilly on the mound.

cocknocker · 04-08-09, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

CK: What's your opinion on the NYY/BAL game? I feel like the price given on Uehara is generous considering his history and Wang's relatively high ERA vs Baltimore in his career.

The over looks like the correct call to me. There are 64% on the under yet the total line has stayed stiff . I also think that any bet against a -200 line is a good bet, because if you win it you erase two losses with one play. Baltimore is a great play. I may throw some crumbs on them as well.

SamsNCharge99 · 04-08-09, 01:26 PM

cocknocker · 04-08-09, 01:42 PM

Rolling with Biggie and the Rockies 1st 4.5 innings.

TheLemonDropKid · 04-08-09, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Rolling with Biggie and the Rockies 1st 4.5 innings.

I'm rollin' with you on this one.....you are due to hit.

repski · 04-08-09, 02:40 PM

Phils give up runs again in the top 1st.....what a way to open in front of the fans....let the booing start

cocknocker · 04-08-09, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid

I'm rollin' with you on this one.....you are due to hit.

I'm going to hit a lot today. I played all of the 1st innings today just for the hell of it. 3-0 so far already

BmoreBucco · 04-08-09, 02:43 PM

Prop of the day:

Inflated line here. I really like Doug Davis so I think he will keep the Rockies in check, so that may be enough right there.

Clorado/Arizona under 31 runs/hits/errors (-120)

khaliagent · 04-08-09, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Leans

NYY @ BAL (+154), UNDER 9.5 (-125)
- Koji Uehara makes his ML debut after playing for 10 years in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants. Excellent control with lots of strikeouts and 56 complete games in ~220 career starts. Watching some video of him pitch, he's got some devastating stuff (striking out Barry Bonds 3 times in a game in 2002).

ATL (-103) @ PHI
- Vazquez had a strong spring / WBC with a good K/BB ratio. ATL has looked good in this series and are definitely motivated to go for the sweep of the WS champions. RLM is also a factor.

PIT @ STL, OVER 8.5 (-125)
- Duke has performed well in the past as a big dog, but not against St Louis, and Wellemeyer had a rough spring. I think Duke will outperform Wellemeyer, but both will give up a lot of runs.

LA @ SD (+160)
- Walter Silva is making his ML debut for the Padres. He's a strikeout pitcher that has issues with command of his fastball, but facing a Dodgers team that has already managed to strike out 20 times in 65 at bats, it's not a bad spot to take a chance on him. He was pursued by both the Dodgers and the Yankees going into this season.
_______________________________________
MLB 2009: 1-2

I like em all except for the baltimore pick.
I never go against my man wang he will only have 5 losses on the year and this wont be one of them but best of luck, no play for me on the yanks game

TheLemonDropKid · 04-08-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I'm going to hit a lot today. I played all of the 1st innings today just for the hell of it. 3-0 so far already

Sweet! Well I'm gonna be playing everything you post today, so I hope you keep rollin' baby!

So far it's MIL (game)
MIL (1st 4)
CIN
CLE/TEX Over 10.5
UTAH +3
IND -5.5
MEM/ORL UNDER

Am I missing any?

SlicWilly3 · 04-08-09, 03:14 PM

Sorry to anyone who listened to me with the under in the Philly's game

We'll sticking with my Cubs tonight, and also like the Reds.

ragiche · 04-08-09, 03:16 PM

My only play for today folks.Nyy -1.5 VERY HEAVY(Wang will come through in this game because he wants a comeback performance from last year cause of a foot injury.As i see uehara's pitching last year he gave up alots of walks while playing in japan(I also watch some japanese baseball last year,because i was in japan last august).I know this will be his debut but wang dominate's the orioles going 3-1.I can smell blowout in this game.I'm gonna give a chalk on this game CK).

wangichu · 04-08-09, 03:38 PM

booked:

CIN ML
(write up above, post #2)

MIN -1.5
twins squeaked one out last night and this is the first time so far that they have had not only a pitching matchup in their favor, but one decidedly in their favor. They're due to put a smack down on the mariner's who's bullpen will be needed tonight, even after being exposed and worn down last night

also, i'm really looking for a runline or ML to parlay with TAMPA +1.5 because of the way kazmir handles the red sox, i just want the security of a runline on that one because of the fact that it's in boston, who i think wins that division this year. When i parlay in baseball i like -130's to -160's that i feel are as close to locks as one can find.

wangichu · 04-08-09, 03:50 PM

adding LAD -1.5, I remember thinking that the dodgers needed a padres killer going into last year to combat peavy and the padres' propensity to beat on my dodgers, and that's about the time that billingsley stepped up and struck out 12 pads in a dominating effort to salvage a 3 game home stand against the pads. Dodgers outclass the padres this year and are coming off a loss to the padres' #2 ace. Now they get fresh meat in a rookie pitcher making his first start. Dodgers may strike out a lot, but they do have batters that work counts and make quality at bats. Plus there will be a lot of teams that put up K's against the padres quality 1 2 punch of peavy and young, but those are two seasoned pitchers with a few years of experience under their belt. This is a first time pitcher going against the dodgers ace in waiting (though if kershaw starts getting off, chad will likely be their number 2).

LAD -1.5

also like the money i can get on the baltimore runline. I don't like fading wang because he's one of the few pitchers from the yankees who doesn't struggling with the concept of being a yankee, but baltimore seems like they start out hot a lot and especially play well at home early. Also, at this point i think they have the better line up with all kinds of youth and potential. Late game theatrics are always possible in Baltimore even if they're down early. Just as much so, yankees have struggled out the gate early in the past couple years.

BAL +1.5

cocknocker · 04-08-09, 04:01 PM

Finally, the Rockies came through in the first 4.5 innings. I as beginning to wonder what the hell is going on. Thanks BigMoney!

peterpan19 · 04-08-09, 04:55 PM

no writeups today just plays:
CWS 5 Innings
Mil (fading the big unit here)
Cubs -1

GL

mcbaseball10 · 04-08-09, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by wangichu

reds can outslug anyone at home, especially with a considerable pitching edge

The Reds offense is abysmal this year. I am a huge Reds homer and see no spark in their lineup. I hope you are right, but would only bet because of Volquez not because "they can outslug anyone at home."
BOL with all your picks.

TheLemonDropKid · 04-08-09, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Finally, the Rockies came through in the first 4.5 innings. I as beginning to wonder what the hell is going on. Thanks BigMoney!

Thanks BigMoney via CK!!!! Or CK via BigMoney!!! Whatever.....thank you both!