Thanx Skyscraper for posting these plays but I've made a wrinkle in your system by playing the fav to win by 2 (you still get underdog money) whenever the dog is a bad team up against a good team (I've defined a "bad team" as being in the bottom third in standings and bottom third in run differential). It's been working well for me (about 29 Wins to 22 losses) and is obviously the situation in most of these plays. The converse seems to work as well as Arizona proved last night (they were a "good" team as a big dog). I was wondering if you've ever looked at a system like that?
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Aug. 18 Tue.
(A) ARI 2.85Comment -
Fuking D-backs. Storm all the way back to tie and then lose in the 15th. What a tease.Comment -
ok nice same kind of results for the previous years?Comment -
Aug. 19 Wed.
(B) DET 2.60Comment -
Will update records later...
Aug. 20 Thu.
(A) MIN 2.50Comment -
(B) DET 2.60
(A) MIN 2.50
Both wins. Will update records tomorrowComment -
M/L Chase: (47-9) -11.91u
(A) 18-38
(B) 15-23
(C) 9-14
(D) 5-9
Season High: +23.49u
Season Low: -23.81u
Aug. 21 Fri
(A) ATL 2.64 - Already lost...(B) tomorrowComment -
Aug. 22 Sat.
(B) ATL 2.85Comment -
Aug. 23 Sun.
(C) ATL 2.95
3 straight days on the Braves.Comment -
Aug. 24 Mon.
(D) OAK 2.55Comment -
Even though (D) OAK won for us, officially Monday should be a no play. OAK no longer maintained biggest dog two minutes before gametime so for records' sake we're have a (D) bet on Tue.Comment -
Aug.25 Tue.
(D) SD 2.70
I've already won the (D) bet yesterday with OAK but it became a no play as it was no longer the biggest dog just before gametime so that means I won't be playing (D) SD today. It's only for tracking the system.Comment -
(D) SD 2.70 - LOSS -15u
Aug 26 Wed.
(A) BOS 2.95
Late PostComment -
(A) BOS 2.95 - WIN +1.95u
M/L Chase: (48-10) -24.96u
(A) 19-39
(B) 15-24
(C) 9-15
(D) 5-10
Season High: +23.49u
Season Low: -26.91u
Comment -
Aug. 27 Thu.
(A) CHC 2.75
Comment -
BumpComment -
If Cubbies today don't drop down below 2.99 again there will be no play todayComment -
Aug. 29 Sat.
(B) BOS 2.80Comment -
(B) BOS 2.80 - WIN +2.6u
M/L Chase: (49-10) -22.36u
(A) 19-40
(B) 16-24
(C) 9-15
(D) 5-10
Season High: +23.49u
Season Low: -26.91uComment -
Aug. 20 Sun.
(A) DET 2.85Comment -
Hope whoever is still following played this because I missed it today.
(B) CIN 2.97 - WIN +2.94u
M/L Chase: (50-10) -19.42u
(A) 19-41
(B) 17-24
(C) 9-15
(D) 5-10
Season High: +23.49u
Season Low: -26.91uComment -
Sep. 01 Tue.
(A) CLE 2.65Comment -
Fuking hate this shit. At 7:04pm, CLE went from 2.65 to close at 2.60. I already played CLE a few minutes before that so I lost. DET which became the official play today had won. So I lost and the system won...fuk...
(A) DET 2.65 - WIN +1.65u
M/L Chase: (51-10) -17.77u
(A) 20-41
(B) 17-24
(C) 9-15
(D) 5-10
Season High: +23.49u
Season Low: -26.91uComment -
Sep. 02 Wed
(A) DET 2.74
Comment -
Hey Sky have you researched this system at playing a chase with the opposite? I mean what is the record betting on the ML for the heavy favorites (and conversely their RL and/or the +1.5 RL for the dogs)? Of course the wagers would be ridiculously expensive chasing on heavy MLs of the biggest favorites of the day, but I'm very interested in seeing what the actual results would be for this system with all 3 different type of wagers (Fav. ML, Fav RL, and Dog +1.5 RL). Sorry if you've already hit on this in the earlier parts of this thread and I missed it. I really like what you're onto here and just trying to help see how we can maximize the potential profit for this type of system by tweaking it certain ways! Very interested in your thoughts (wouldn't be surprised if you've already looked at this before)! Thanks for consistently posting plays and keeping a meticulous record the entire season, and BOL on this and any other plays you have tonight my friend!
Comment -
Hey Semper how we doin? Unfortunately this year has been a little bit of a downer but still up a bit if I included the pre-season. I backtested 4 different ways of playing: Road Dog ML, Road Dog RL, Home Dog ML & Home Dog RL. Out of the four the Road Dog ML has been the better result than the other 3 hence that's the system I chose to play. Contrary to popular belief, home dogs just don't win as often to compensate for the lower odds that you get for home dogs vs. road dogs. In other words, you don't have to win as often when playing road dogs because the odds are much higher. As for the RL, every series win will only be 1 unit because every play would be <2.00 odds so that would be just a straight-up chase. Doesn't really work with this doubling-up system where a series win may net you between anywhere from 1.5 to 8 units.
I'm backtesting the NHL right now and the results are even better than MLB. It's a straight-up 3-game chase on the Road Dog Puck-Line instead of doubling-up on the Road Dog RL here. Stay tuned...Comment -
Sep. 03 Thu.
(B) DET 2.50Comment -
Sep. 04 Fri.
(C) ARI 2.86
Missed play but lost anyway.Comment -
Sep. 05 Sat.
(D) ARI 2.97Comment -
This is just getting ugly...
(D) ARI 2.97 - LOSS -15u
M/L Chase: (51-11) -32.77u
(A) 20-42
(B) 17-25
(C) 9-16
(D) 5-11
Season High: +23.49u
Season Low: -32.77uComment -
Damn!Comment -
Sep. 06 Sun.
Wasn't able to post this yesterday
(A) CWS 2.92 - WIN +1.92u
M/L Chase: (52-11) -30.85u
(A) 21-42
(B) 17-25
(C) 9-16
(D) 5-11
Season High: +23.49u
Season Low: -32.77uComment
