OOTP 16 thread

**terrortwylight** · 04-16-15, 06:58 PM

holy shit man.

Please keep doing this.

**nash13** · 04-16-15, 07:21 PM

I tried this with FM for soccer and NBA2k series. NBA2k sim mechanics were very shaky, ML winners made ok, but ATS and Totals were way off at times. FM15 was harder to accomplish. Maybe it was connected to the fact that the metrics in soccer are very dependent on one specific outcome like a red card, penalty injury etc.

**nktmpp** · 04-16-15, 07:33 PM

in no way, shape, or form would i advocate blind following on any of the picks. i was pleased with the first week of results, so i started betting every game with the "sim" reults. starting small, 1 unit = 5 dollars. i flat bet every game, but if the "sim" winner is -200 or more, i take the run line. I can see how basketball and European football might not have the best results....and its very possible thats where this is headed as well. i just liked it due to baseball being so statistically involved and really relies on a team instead of one or two people most nights. I'll keep doing this so no worries there. however, might miss a few days next week due to vacation...headed to draculas castle in Brosov Romania. So, between the beer and more beer...time might be a lil short. i'll do as much as i can.

BOL to you all

input and discussion always welcome!

**nktmpp** · 04-17-15, 03:32 AM

4/16 results:

KC 5, Min 8 W
Mil 0, Stl 4 L
Phi 2, Was 5 W
TB 4, Tor 2 W
Mia 5, NYM 7 W
Ari 7, SF 6 L

today 4-2
overall 80-59

**nash13** · 04-17-15, 07:45 AM

started tracking the totals results
65-53 which is ok imo

**nktmpp** · 04-17-15, 08:56 AM

Originally posted by nash13

started tracking the totals results
65-53 which is ok imo

Outstanding job nash13. if im not mistaken, thats right around 55%...small sample size but good info and something i'll keep an eye on. feel free to keep tracking em. i won't, i got my hands full just getting everything in order to sim the games...but its much appreciated!!

**nktmpp** · 04-17-15, 09:01 AM

4/17 sim results:

CWS 2, Det 11
SD 7, CHC 1 (bryant, 0-3 in ML debut w/ 1 K, 4 men LOB)
Atl 7, Tor 5
Mil 6, Pit 7
Phi 3, Was 2
Bal 1, Bos 9
Mia 7, NYM 3
NYY 0, TB 5
Cle 7, Min 4
LAA 6, Hou 10
Oak 5, KC 4
Cin 0, Stl 7
Col 5, LAD 4
Tex 3, Sea 5
Ari 5, SF 2

**nash13** · 04-17-15, 09:16 AM

ok i will post the results here regularly. keep up the outstanding job.

**nktmpp** · 04-17-15, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by nktmpp

4/17 sim results:

CWS 2, Det 11
SD 7, CHC 1 (bryant, 0-3 in ML debut w/ 1 K, 4 men LOB)
Atl 7, Tor 5
Mil 6, Pit 7
Phi 3, Was 2
Bal 1, Bos 9
Mia 7, NYM 3
NYY 0, TB 5
Cle 7, Min 4
LAA 6, Hou 10
Oak 5, KC 4
Cin 0, Stl 7
Col 5, LAD 4
Tex 3, Sea 5
Ari 5, SF 2

GL everyone

**nash13** · 04-17-15, 09:55 PM

Calculated Profit with odds from Oddsportal.
Predictions through 15th April.
ML 77-56 17.64 Units
Totals: 65-53 9.89 Units

**Manuel Labor** · 04-17-15, 10:45 PM

Nice. Braves 4-0 now if I'm correct. Keep it going. Thanks and BOL to everyone!

**Manuel Labor** · 04-17-15, 10:50 PM

I need Colorado RL and Seattle ML to finish 9 team parlay. Figures I play them their bats freeze up

**Manuel Labor** · 04-17-15, 10:52 PM

BOOOOOOOMMMMM COLORADO!

**nktmpp** · 04-18-15, 03:33 AM

4/17 results:

CHW 1, Det 2 W
SD 5, CHC 4 W
Mil 3, Pit 6 W
Phi 2, Was 7 L
Atl 8, Tor 7 W
Mia 1, NYM 4 L
NYY 5, TB 4 L
Bal 2, Bos 3 W
Cle 2, Min 3 L
LAA 6, Hou 3 L
Oak 4, KC 6 L
Cin 1, Stl 6 W
Col 3, LAD 7 L
Tex 3, Sea 1 L
Ari 9, SF 0 W

today 7-8
overall 87-67

**nktmpp** · 04-18-15, 09:49 AM

4/18 sim results:

Phi 2, Was 3
CHW 5, Det 2
Atl 3, Tor 1
Cle 7, Min 2
Cin 2, Stl 3
SD 3, CHC 1
Bal 8, Bos 2
Mil 5, Pit 3
Mia 7, NYM 0
LAA 6, Hou 1
Oak 8, KC 6
NYY 3, TB 4
Ari 12, SF 4
Col 6, LAD 0
Tex 1, Sea 8

from now on, any dog that wins the "sim" game will be in bold. for my own tracking purposes

**Semper Fidelis** · 04-18-15, 01:02 PM

Nktmpp, I think I misunderstood this thread when I first posted the other day - are you using the OOTP stats and simulating all the games yourself? At first I thought you were saying they had a system model that was using software to spit out picks, but it's actually you doing all the work coming up with the picks yourself, based on the specific stats from their database? If so, that is a very arduous and time-consuming task, and very commendatory my friend! I'm currently trying to develop my own model from which to base my picks, and SIERRA, xFIP, etc. (all the statistics used in OOTP) certainly represent the core of everything. Very much looking forward to discussions here throughout the season!

BOL on these plays today, and thanks for all the work you are putting in!

**nktmpp** · 04-18-15, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

Nktmpp, I think I misunderstood this thread when I first posted the other day - are you using the OOTP stats and simulating all the games yourself? At first I thought you were saying they had a system model that was using software to spit out picks, but it's actually you doing all the work coming up with the picks yourself, based on the specific stats from their database? If so, that is a very arduous and time-consuming task, and very commendatory my friend! I'm currently trying to develop my own model from which to base my picks, and SIERRA, xFIP, etc. (all the statistics used in OOTP) certainly represent the core of everything. Very much looking forward to discussions here throughout the season!

BOL on these plays today, and thanks for all the work you are putting in!

I've bought and played the game the past few years...this year, i was curious how it would compare to the actual games through out the season. i just started a new game...set all teams to controlled by me and i manually do all the changes as they come along. once lineups are announced for the day, i make any changes needed and simulate the game. the results of that sim are what i post here on the forum. None of what i post are my predictions, but those results from simulations i mentioned earlier. ive enjoyed the game for years and have loved baseball all my life. figured why the hell not. i was all kinds of interested in how the game measured up to what actually happens on the field.

**nktmpp** · 04-19-15, 04:04 AM

4/18 results:

Phi 5, Was 3 L
CWS 12, Det 3 W
Atl 5, Tor 6 L
Cle 4, Min 2 W
Cin 2, Stl 5 W
SD 6, CHC 7 L
Bal 4, Bos 1 W
Mil 2, Pit 6 L
Mia 4, NYM 5 L
NYY 9, TB 0 L
Oak 5, KC 0 W
LAA 0, Hou 4 L
Ari 1, SF 4 L
Col 3, LAD 6 L
Tex 1, Sea 3 W

today 6-9
overall 94-75

**nktmpp** · 04-19-15, 10:35 AM

4/19 sim results:

CHW 3, Det 0
Atl 5, Tor 3
Mia 2, NYM 6
NYY 8, TB 1
Mil 1, Pit 2
Phi 2, Was 8
Bal 6, Bos 5
Cle 6, Min 4
LAA 7, Hou 3
Oak 6, KC 3
SD 3, CHC 4
Ari1, SF 2
Col 4, LAD 2
Tex 0, Sea 5
Cin 1, Stl 5

**nash13** · 04-19-15, 10:38 AM

Results through 18.April 2015
ML:
94-75 +14.66 Units 8.67% Yield
Totals:
76-74 -0.54 Units

**nktmpp** · 04-20-15, 03:31 AM

4/19 results:

CHW 1, Det 9 L
Atl 5, Tor 2 L
Mia 6, NYM 7 W
NYY 5, TB 3 W
Phi 1, Was 4 W
Mil 2, Pit 5 W
Bal 8, Bos 3 W
LAA 3, Hou 4 L
Oak 2, KC 4 L
Cle 2, Min 7 L
SD 5, CHC 2 L
Ari 5, SF 1 L
Col 0, LAD 7 L
Tex 10, Sea 11 W
Cin 1, Stl 2 W

today 7-8
overall 101-83

**nktmpp** · 04-20-15, 08:22 AM

4/20 sim results:

Bal 2, Bos 4
CHC 2, Pit 1
NYY 0, Det 2
Cin 1, Mil 2
Cle 11, CHW 2
Min 3, KC 1
SD 0, Col 4
Oak 4, LAA 2
Hou 3, Sea 1

**nktmpp** · 04-21-15, 03:28 AM

4/20 results:

Bal 1, Bos 7 W
CHC 5, Pit 2 W
NYY 1, Det 2 W
Cin 6, Mil 1 L
Min 1, KC 7 L
Cle 3, CWS 4 L
SD 14, Col 3 L
Oak 6, LAA 3 W
Hou 7, Sea 5 W

today 5-4
overall 106-87

**nktmpp** · 04-21-15, 02:28 PM

Won't be simulating any games tonight and probably won't be able to again until Sunday. Once i'm back....i'll get everything in order and back at it. until then.....

BOL to everyone

**nktmpp** · 04-28-15, 04:46 AM

Ok, I made it back and will be continuing the sim starting with tonights games. Spent what little time i had yesterday updating all the teams disabled list and 25 man rosters. Once lineups come out for tonights games, business as usual

BOL everyone

**nktmpp** · 04-28-15, 02:41 PM

4/28 sim results:

Tor 5, Bos 6
KC 4, Cle 5
TB 10, NYY 1
Was 2, Atl 1
NYM 2, Mia 3
Mil 10, Cin 5
Pit 4, CHC 3
Sea 7, Tex 1
Det 7, Min 4
Phi 5, Stl 2
Col 6, Ari 4
LAA 1, Oak 2
SF 7, LAD 3
Hou 4, SD 2

**nktmpp** · 04-29-15, 03:23 AM

4/28 results:

Tor 11, Bos 8 L
KC 11, Cle 5 L
TB 2, NYY 4 L
Was 13, Atl 12 W
NYM 3, Mia 4 W
Mil 2, Cin 4 L
Pit 2, CHC 6 L
Sea 2, Tex 1 W
Det 2, Min 3 L
Phi 5, Stl 11 L
Col 5, Ari 12 L
LAA 2, Oak 6 W
SF 2, LAD 1 W
Hou 14, SD 3 W

today 6-8
overall 112-95

**nktmpp** · 04-29-15, 10:06 AM

4/29 sim results:

Mil 8, Cin 3
TB 6, NYY 10
Det 7, Min 1
CHW 3, Bal 7* (can't simulate no crowd...so who knows what will happen)
Hou 4, SD 2
KC 4, Cle 2
Tor 5, Bos 6
NYM 1, Mia 2
Was 7, Atl 6
Pit 7, CHC 10
Phi 4, Stl 3
Sea 2, Tex 5
Col 0, Ari 2
LAA 6, Oak 3
SF 0, LAD 2

FYI...BOLD is the underdog winning the simulated game. I do this for my own tracking

**nktmpp** · 04-30-15, 02:49 AM

4/29 results:

Mil 8, Cin 3 W
TB 3, NYY 2 L
Det 10, Min 7 W
CHW 2, Bal 8 W
Hou 7, SD 2 W
KC 5, Cle 7 L
Tor 1, Bos 4 W
NYM 3, Mia 7 W
Was 13, Atl 4 W
Pit 8, CHC 1 L
Phi 2, Stl 5 L
Sea 5, Tex 2 L
Col 1, Ari 9 W
LAA 6, Oak 3 W
SF 3, LAD 7 W

today 10-5
overall 122-100

**nktmpp** · 04-30-15, 10:19 AM

4/30 sim results:

Phi 1, Stl 8
LAA 2, Oak 6
Cin 6, Atl 4
Tor 4, Cle 2
Was 6, NYM 2
CHW 3, Min2
Det 1, KC 12
Sea 7, Hou 3

**nktmpp** · 05-01-15, 02:19 AM

4/30 results:

Phi 3, Stl 9 W
LAA 6, Oak 5 L
Was 8, NYM 2 W
Cin 5, Atl 1 W
Tor 5, Cle 1 W
CHW 2, Min 12 L
Sea 2, Hou 3 L
Det 1, KC 8 W

today 5-3
overall 127-103

**nktmpp** · 05-01-15, 11:15 AM

5/1 sim results

Mil 4, CHC 2
TB 1, Bal 2
NYY 3, Bos 1
Phi 3, Mia 5
Tor 7, Cle 2
Was 2, NYM 6
Cin 9, Atl 4
Oak 3, Tex 6
CHW 8, Min 6
Det 10, KC 11
Sea 1, Hou 6
Pit 3, Stl 6
Ari 2, LAD 4
Col 1, SD 7
LAA 4, SF 3

**nktmpp** · 05-02-15, 02:57 AM

5/1 results:

Mil 0, CHC 1 L
TB 2, Bal 0 L
Was 0, NYM 4 W
Phi 3, Mia 4 W
NYY 3, Bos 2 W
Tor 4, Cle 9 L
Cin 3, Atl 4 L
Oak 7, Tex 5 L
Sea 3, Hou 4 W
CHW 0, Min 1 L
Det 1, KC 4 W
Pit 1, Stl 2 W
Col 3, SD 14 W
Ari 0, LAD 8 W
LAA 2, SF 3 L

today 8-7
overall 135-110

**nktmpp** · 05-02-15, 09:58 AM

5/2 sim results:

NYY 3, Bos 4
CHW 0, Min 14
Pit 2, Stl 3
Mil 4, CHC 3
LAA 1, SF 4
Phi 0, Mia 5
Tor 1, Cle 3
TB 2, Bal 4
Cin 3, Atl 1
Det 3, KC 2
Sea 7, Hou 2
Was 13, NYM 7
Oak 5, Tex 2
Col 2, SD 3
Ari 6, LAD 7

**nktmpp** · 05-03-15, 03:10 AM

5/2 results:

NYY 4, Bos 2 L
CHW 3, Min 5 W
Pit 1, Stl 2 W
Mil 6, CHC 1 W
LAA 4, SF 5 W
Phi 0, Mia 7 W
Tor 11, Cle 4 L
TB 0, Bal 4 W
Was 1, NYM 0 W
Cin 8, Atl 4 W
Det 2, KC 1 W
Sea 4, Hou 11 L
Oak 7, Tex 8 L
Col 2, SD 4 W
Ari 4, LAD 6 W

today 11-4
overall 146-114