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  • terrortwylight
    SBR MVP
    • 11-04-09
    • 3032

    #36
    holy shit man.

    Please keep doing this.
    Comment
    • nash13
      SBR MVP
      • 01-21-14
      • 1122

      #37
      I tried this with FM for soccer and NBA2k series. NBA2k sim mechanics were very shaky, ML winners made ok, but ATS and Totals were way off at times. FM15 was harder to accomplish. Maybe it was connected to the fact that the metrics in soccer are very dependent on one specific outcome like a red card, penalty injury etc.
      Comment
      • nktmpp
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-12-14
        • 401

        #38
        in no way, shape, or form would i advocate blind following on any of the picks. i was pleased with the first week of results, so i started betting every game with the "sim" reults. starting small, 1 unit = 5 dollars. i flat bet every game, but if the "sim" winner is -200 or more, i take the run line. I can see how basketball and European football might not have the best results....and its very possible thats where this is headed as well. i just liked it due to baseball being so statistically involved and really relies on a team instead of one or two people most nights. I'll keep doing this so no worries there. however, might miss a few days next week due to vacation...headed to draculas castle in Brosov Romania. So, between the beer and more beer...time might be a lil short. i'll do as much as i can.

        BOL to you all

        input and discussion always welcome!
        Comment
        • nktmpp
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-12-14
          • 401

          #39
          4/16 results:

          KC 5, Min 8 W
          Mil 0, Stl 4 L
          Phi 2, Was 5 W
          TB 4, Tor 2 W
          Mia 5, NYM 7 W
          Ari 7, SF 6 L

          today 4-2
          overall 80-59
          Comment
          • nash13
            SBR MVP
            • 01-21-14
            • 1122

            #40
            started tracking the totals results
            65-53 which is ok imo
            Comment
            • nktmpp
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-12-14
              • 401

              #41
              Originally posted by nash13
              started tracking the totals results
              65-53 which is ok imo
              Outstanding job nash13. if im not mistaken, thats right around 55%...small sample size but good info and something i'll keep an eye on. feel free to keep tracking em. i won't, i got my hands full just getting everything in order to sim the games...but its much appreciated!!
              Comment
              • nktmpp
                SBR Sharp
                • 11-12-14
                • 401

                #42
                4/17 sim results:

                CWS 2, Det 11
                SD 7, CHC 1 (bryant, 0-3 in ML debut w/ 1 K, 4 men LOB)
                Atl 7, Tor 5
                Mil 6, Pit 7
                Phi 3, Was 2
                Bal 1, Bos 9
                Mia 7, NYM 3
                NYY 0, TB 5
                Cle 7, Min 4
                LAA 6, Hou 10
                Oak 5, KC 4
                Cin 0, Stl 7
                Col 5, LAD 4
                Tex 3, Sea 5
                Ari 5, SF 2
                Last edited by nktmpp; 04-17-15, 05:57 PM.
                Comment
                • nash13
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-21-14
                  • 1122

                  #43
                  ok i will post the results here regularly. keep up the outstanding job.
                  Comment
                  • nktmpp
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 11-12-14
                    • 401

                    #44
                    Originally posted by nktmpp
                    4/17 sim results:

                    CWS 2, Det 11
                    SD 7, CHC 1 (bryant, 0-3 in ML debut w/ 1 K, 4 men LOB)
                    Atl 7, Tor 5
                    Mil 6, Pit 7
                    Phi 3, Was 2
                    Bal 1, Bos 9
                    Mia 7, NYM 3
                    NYY 0, TB 5
                    Cle 7, Min 4
                    LAA 6, Hou 10
                    Oak 5, KC 4
                    Cin 0, Stl 7
                    Col 5, LAD 4
                    Tex 3, Sea 5
                    Ari 5, SF 2

                    GL everyone
                    Last edited by nktmpp; 04-17-15, 05:57 PM.
                    Comment
                    • nash13
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-21-14
                      • 1122

                      #45
                      Calculated Profit with odds from Oddsportal.
                      Predictions through 15th April.
                      ML 77-56 17.64 Units
                      Totals: 65-53 9.89 Units
                      Comment
                      • Manuel Labor
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 03-29-15
                        • 36

                        #46
                        Nice. Braves 4-0 now if I'm correct. Keep it going. Thanks and BOL to everyone!
                        Comment
                        • Manuel Labor
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 03-29-15
                          • 36

                          #47
                          I need Colorado RL and Seattle ML to finish 9 team parlay. Figures I play them their bats freeze up
                          Comment
                          • Manuel Labor
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 03-29-15
                            • 36

                            #48
                            BOOOOOOOMMMMM COLORADO!
                            Comment
                            • nktmpp
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 11-12-14
                              • 401

                              #49
                              4/17 results:

                              CHW 1, Det 2 W
                              SD 5, CHC 4 W
                              Mil 3, Pit 6 W
                              Phi 2, Was 7 L
                              Atl 8, Tor 7 W
                              Mia 1, NYM 4 L
                              NYY 5, TB 4 L
                              Bal 2, Bos 3 W
                              Cle 2, Min 3 L
                              LAA 6, Hou 3 L
                              Oak 4, KC 6 L
                              Cin 1, Stl 6 W
                              Col 3, LAD 7 L
                              Tex 3, Sea 1 L
                              Ari 9, SF 0 W

                              today 7-8
                              overall 87-67
                              Comment
                              • nktmpp
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 11-12-14
                                • 401

                                #50
                                4/18 sim results:

                                Phi 2, Was 3
                                CHW 5, Det 2
                                Atl 3, Tor 1

                                Cle 7, Min 2
                                Cin 2, Stl 3
                                SD 3, CHC 1
                                Bal 8, Bos 2
                                Mil 5, Pit 3
                                Mia 7, NYM 0
                                LAA 6, Hou 1
                                Oak 8, KC 6

                                NYY 3, TB 4
                                Ari 12, SF 4
                                Col 6, LAD 0

                                Tex 1, Sea 8

                                from now on, any dog that wins the "sim" game will be in bold. for my own tracking purposes
                                Last edited by nktmpp; 04-18-15, 05:13 PM.
                                Comment
                                • Semper Fidelis
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-22-11
                                  • 1999

                                  #51
                                  Nktmpp, I think I misunderstood this thread when I first posted the other day - are you using the OOTP stats and simulating all the games yourself? At first I thought you were saying they had a system model that was using software to spit out picks, but it's actually you doing all the work coming up with the picks yourself, based on the specific stats from their database? If so, that is a very arduous and time-consuming task, and very commendatory my friend! I'm currently trying to develop my own model from which to base my picks, and SIERRA, xFIP, etc. (all the statistics used in OOTP) certainly represent the core of everything. Very much looking forward to discussions here throughout the season!

                                  BOL on these plays today, and thanks for all the work you are putting in!
                                  Comment
                                  • nktmpp
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-12-14
                                    • 401

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by Semper Fidelis
                                    Nktmpp, I think I misunderstood this thread when I first posted the other day - are you using the OOTP stats and simulating all the games yourself? At first I thought you were saying they had a system model that was using software to spit out picks, but it's actually you doing all the work coming up with the picks yourself, based on the specific stats from their database? If so, that is a very arduous and time-consuming task, and very commendatory my friend! I'm currently trying to develop my own model from which to base my picks, and SIERRA, xFIP, etc. (all the statistics used in OOTP) certainly represent the core of everything. Very much looking forward to discussions here throughout the season!

                                    BOL on these plays today, and thanks for all the work you are putting in!
                                    I've bought and played the game the past few years...this year, i was curious how it would compare to the actual games through out the season. i just started a new game...set all teams to controlled by me and i manually do all the changes as they come along. once lineups are announced for the day, i make any changes needed and simulate the game. the results of that sim are what i post here on the forum. None of what i post are my predictions, but those results from simulations i mentioned earlier. ive enjoyed the game for years and have loved baseball all my life. figured why the hell not. i was all kinds of interested in how the game measured up to what actually happens on the field.
                                    Comment
                                    • nktmpp
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 11-12-14
                                      • 401

                                      #53
                                      4/18 results:

                                      Phi 5, Was 3 L
                                      CWS 12, Det 3 W
                                      Atl 5, Tor 6 L
                                      Cle 4, Min 2 W
                                      Cin 2, Stl 5 W
                                      SD 6, CHC 7 L
                                      Bal 4, Bos 1 W
                                      Mil 2, Pit 6 L
                                      Mia 4, NYM 5 L
                                      NYY 9, TB 0 L
                                      Oak 5, KC 0 W
                                      LAA 0, Hou 4 L
                                      Ari 1, SF 4 L
                                      Col 3, LAD 6 L
                                      Tex 1, Sea 3 W

                                      today 6-9
                                      overall 94-75
                                      Last edited by nktmpp; 04-19-15, 10:39 AM.
                                      Comment
                                      • nktmpp
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 11-12-14
                                        • 401

                                        #54
                                        4/19 sim results:

                                        CHW 3, Det 0
                                        Atl 5, Tor 3

                                        Mia 2, NYM 6
                                        NYY 8, TB 1
                                        Mil 1, Pit 2
                                        Phi 2, Was 8
                                        Bal 6, Bos 5
                                        Cle 6, Min 4
                                        LAA 7, Hou 3
                                        Oak 6, KC 3
                                        SD 3, CHC 4
                                        Ari1, SF 2
                                        Col 4, LAD 2
                                        Tex 0, Sea 5
                                        Cin 1, Stl 5
                                        Last edited by nktmpp; 04-19-15, 04:24 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • nash13
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-21-14
                                          • 1122

                                          #55
                                          Results through 18.April 2015
                                          ML:
                                          94-75 +14.66 Units 8.67% Yield
                                          Totals:
                                          76-74 -0.54 Units
                                          Comment
                                          • nktmpp
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 11-12-14
                                            • 401

                                            #56
                                            4/19 results:

                                            CHW 1, Det 9 L
                                            Atl 5, Tor 2 L
                                            Mia 6, NYM 7 W
                                            NYY 5, TB 3 W
                                            Phi 1, Was 4 W
                                            Mil 2, Pit 5 W
                                            Bal 8, Bos 3 W
                                            LAA 3, Hou 4 L
                                            Oak 2, KC 4 L
                                            Cle 2, Min 7 L
                                            SD 5, CHC 2 L
                                            Ari 5, SF 1 L
                                            Col 0, LAD 7 L
                                            Tex 10, Sea 11 W
                                            Cin 1, Stl 2 W

                                            today 7-8
                                            overall 101-83
                                            Comment
                                            • nktmpp
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-12-14
                                              • 401

                                              #57
                                              4/20 sim results:

                                              Bal 2, Bos 4
                                              CHC 2, Pit 1
                                              NYY 0, Det 2
                                              Cin 1, Mil 2
                                              Cle 11, CHW 2
                                              Min 3, KC 1
                                              SD 0, Col 4
                                              Oak 4, LAA 2
                                              Hou 3, Sea 1
                                              Last edited by nktmpp; 04-20-15, 05:14 PM.
                                              Comment
                                              • nktmpp
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-12-14
                                                • 401

                                                #58
                                                4/20 results:

                                                Bal 1, Bos 7 W
                                                CHC 5, Pit 2 W
                                                NYY 1, Det 2 W
                                                Cin 6, Mil 1 L
                                                Min 1, KC 7 L
                                                Cle 3, CWS 4 L
                                                SD 14, Col 3 L
                                                Oak 6, LAA 3 W
                                                Hou 7, Sea 5 W

                                                today 5-4
                                                overall 106-87
                                                Comment
                                                • nktmpp
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 11-12-14
                                                  • 401

                                                  #59
                                                  Won't be simulating any games tonight and probably won't be able to again until Sunday. Once i'm back....i'll get everything in order and back at it. until then.....

                                                  BOL to everyone
                                                  Comment
                                                  • nktmpp
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 11-12-14
                                                    • 401

                                                    #60
                                                    Ok, I made it back and will be continuing the sim starting with tonights games. Spent what little time i had yesterday updating all the teams disabled list and 25 man rosters. Once lineups come out for tonights games, business as usual

                                                    BOL everyone
                                                    Comment
                                                    • nktmpp
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 11-12-14
                                                      • 401

                                                      #61
                                                      4/28 sim results:

                                                      Tor 5, Bos 6
                                                      KC 4, Cle 5
                                                      TB 10, NYY 1
                                                      Was 2, Atl 1
                                                      NYM 2, Mia 3
                                                      Mil 10, Cin 5
                                                      Pit 4, CHC 3
                                                      Sea 7, Tex 1
                                                      Det 7, Min 4
                                                      Phi 5, Stl 2
                                                      Col 6, Ari 4
                                                      LAA 1, Oak 2
                                                      SF 7, LAD 3
                                                      Hou 4, SD 2
                                                      Last edited by nktmpp; 04-28-15, 05:46 PM.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • nktmpp
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 11-12-14
                                                        • 401

                                                        #62
                                                        4/28 results:

                                                        Tor 11, Bos 8 L
                                                        KC 11, Cle 5 L
                                                        TB 2, NYY 4 L
                                                        Was 13, Atl 12 W
                                                        NYM 3, Mia 4 W
                                                        Mil 2, Cin 4 L
                                                        Pit 2, CHC 6 L
                                                        Sea 2, Tex 1 W
                                                        Det 2, Min 3 L
                                                        Phi 5, Stl 11 L
                                                        Col 5, Ari 12 L
                                                        LAA 2, Oak 6 W
                                                        SF 2, LAD 1 W
                                                        Hou 14, SD 3 W

                                                        today 6-8
                                                        overall 112-95
                                                        Comment
                                                        • nktmpp
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 11-12-14
                                                          • 401

                                                          #63
                                                          4/29 sim results:

                                                          Mil 8, Cin 3
                                                          TB 6, NYY 10
                                                          Det 7, Min 1
                                                          CHW 3, Bal 7* (can't simulate no crowd...so who knows what will happen)
                                                          Hou 4, SD 2
                                                          KC 4, Cle 2
                                                          Tor 5, Bos 6
                                                          NYM 1, Mia 2
                                                          Was 7, Atl 6
                                                          Pit 7, CHC 10
                                                          Phi 4, Stl 3
                                                          Sea 2, Tex 5
                                                          Col 0, Ari 2
                                                          LAA 6, Oak 3
                                                          SF 0, LAD 2


                                                          FYI...BOLD is the underdog winning the simulated game. I do this for my own tracking
                                                          Last edited by nktmpp; 04-29-15, 05:54 PM.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • nktmpp
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 11-12-14
                                                            • 401

                                                            #64
                                                            4/29 results:

                                                            Mil 8, Cin 3 W
                                                            TB 3, NYY 2 L
                                                            Det 10, Min 7 W
                                                            CHW 2, Bal 8 W
                                                            Hou 7, SD 2 W
                                                            KC 5, Cle 7 L
                                                            Tor 1, Bos 4 W
                                                            NYM 3, Mia 7 W
                                                            Was 13, Atl 4 W
                                                            Pit 8, CHC 1 L
                                                            Phi 2, Stl 5 L
                                                            Sea 5, Tex 2 L
                                                            Col 1, Ari 9 W
                                                            LAA 6, Oak 3 W
                                                            SF 3, LAD 7 W

                                                            today 10-5
                                                            overall 122-100
                                                            Comment
                                                            • nktmpp
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 11-12-14
                                                              • 401

                                                              #65
                                                              4/30 sim results:

                                                              Phi 1, Stl 8
                                                              LAA 2, Oak 6
                                                              Cin 6, Atl 4
                                                              Tor 4, Cle 2
                                                              Was 6, NYM 2
                                                              CHW 3, Min2
                                                              Det 1, KC 12
                                                              Sea 7, Hou 3
                                                              Last edited by nktmpp; 04-30-15, 03:44 PM.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • nktmpp
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 11-12-14
                                                                • 401

                                                                #66
                                                                4/30 results:

                                                                Phi 3, Stl 9 W
                                                                LAA 6, Oak 5 L
                                                                Was 8, NYM 2 W
                                                                Cin 5, Atl 1 W
                                                                Tor 5, Cle 1 W
                                                                CHW 2, Min 12 L
                                                                Sea 2, Hou 3 L
                                                                Det 1, KC 8 W

                                                                today 5-3
                                                                overall 127-103
                                                                Comment
                                                                • nktmpp
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 11-12-14
                                                                  • 401

                                                                  #67
                                                                  5/1 sim results

                                                                  Mil 4, CHC 2
                                                                  TB 1, Bal 2
                                                                  NYY 3, Bos 1
                                                                  Phi 3, Mia 5
                                                                  Tor 7, Cle 2
                                                                  Was 2, NYM 6
                                                                  Cin 9, Atl 4
                                                                  Oak 3, Tex 6
                                                                  CHW 8, Min 6
                                                                  Det 10, KC 11
                                                                  Sea 1, Hou 6
                                                                  Pit 3, Stl 6
                                                                  Ari 2, LAD 4
                                                                  Col 1, SD 7
                                                                  LAA 4, SF 3
                                                                  Last edited by nktmpp; 05-01-15, 05:59 PM.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • nktmpp
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 11-12-14
                                                                    • 401

                                                                    #68
                                                                    5/1 results:

                                                                    Mil 0, CHC 1 L
                                                                    TB 2, Bal 0 L
                                                                    Was 0, NYM 4 W
                                                                    Phi 3, Mia 4 W
                                                                    NYY 3, Bos 2 W
                                                                    Tor 4, Cle 9 L
                                                                    Cin 3, Atl 4 L
                                                                    Oak 7, Tex 5 L
                                                                    Sea 3, Hou 4 W
                                                                    CHW 0, Min 1 L
                                                                    Det 1, KC 4 W
                                                                    Pit 1, Stl 2 W
                                                                    Col 3, SD 14 W
                                                                    Ari 0, LAD 8 W
                                                                    LAA 2, SF 3 L

                                                                    today 8-7
                                                                    overall 135-110
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • nktmpp
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 11-12-14
                                                                      • 401

                                                                      #69
                                                                      5/2 sim results:

                                                                      NYY 3, Bos 4
                                                                      CHW 0, Min 14
                                                                      Pit 2, Stl 3
                                                                      Mil 4, CHC 3
                                                                      LAA 1, SF 4
                                                                      Phi 0, Mia 5
                                                                      Tor 1, Cle 3
                                                                      TB 2, Bal 4
                                                                      Cin 3, Atl 1
                                                                      Det 3, KC 2
                                                                      Sea 7, Hou 2
                                                                      Was 13, NYM 7
                                                                      Oak 5, Tex 2
                                                                      Col 2, SD 3
                                                                      Ari 6, LAD 7
                                                                      Last edited by nktmpp; 05-02-15, 04:50 PM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • nktmpp
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 11-12-14
                                                                        • 401

                                                                        #70
                                                                        5/2 results:

                                                                        NYY 4, Bos 2 L
                                                                        CHW 3, Min 5 W
                                                                        Pit 1, Stl 2 W
                                                                        Mil 6, CHC 1 W
                                                                        LAA 4, SF 5 W
                                                                        Phi 0, Mia 7 W
                                                                        Tor 11, Cle 4 L
                                                                        TB 0, Bal 4 W
                                                                        Was 1, NYM 0 W
                                                                        Cin 8, Atl 4 W
                                                                        Det 2, KC 1 W
                                                                        Sea 4, Hou 11 L
                                                                        Oak 7, Tex 8 L
                                                                        Col 2, SD 4 W
                                                                        Ari 4, LAD 6 W

                                                                        today 11-4
                                                                        overall 146-114
                                                                        Comment
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