Stifler's MLB Modified 2015

[Stifler]

The biggest question is am I doing it right? He was pretty slick posting and I feel scatterbrained when incorporating streaks that are home and away.. Like BoSox fade today.. Streak started for them at home and now they are on road and then you have conflicting streaks that throw games out.. But when that streak ends like Oak winning yest because the game was thrown out yest cause they were on skid. does it activate then?

both systems S1/S2 are divided in home/road games. As for the Boston example they would have been a play as they went on a 3game losing streaks on the road and this streak gets broken on 10.05. If boston fits to the S2 system you would have start to fade them on their next game on the road. If they would fit to the S1 system you would have been skipped 2 games and start to fade them afterwards (which would have been yesterday).

But remember i didnt play all teams for those systems. I filtered out their system records and played only those teams who looked good on those systems. So i dont know if Boston fade would have fit to the S1 system this year.

No doubt his sys wins.. Because I followed him a long time. I don't want to F it up and maximize the potential for anyone who follows here.

i wouldnt go that far...even if past records are good for those systems that doesnt guarantee future winnings. Always keep that in mind...so if your playing any of those systems my advice would be to call it a season once you hit like 50 units, no matter what happens afterwards - its guaranted +money.

[imotiv8]

Thanks Stif!

[Rainemaker]

Right

That was another question I forgot about.. That you only used certain teams. But since Boston was brutal last year wouldn't they be a key team for a Fade sys on S1 and S2?

I started to see my interpretation of your sys was getting skewed the deeper I dug into it on my own.

So this is the perfect place for it.. Modified thread. I can't back up any plays with years of painstaking research you've done. But I will continue to track and play S2..

I think its a great theory to keep playing on though based on my experiences with MLB for years. Riding hot and fading cold streaks in a controlled manner should be a recipe for a winning season.

I appreciate all your hard work over the years Stifler and hope this variation of your sys wins for any followers.

In the meantime feel free to check out any of the bonus systems I've posted and will track here independently. I can't provide spreadsheets of success as you did, but now is a good place to start and maybe give you some ideas on anything you formulate in the future.

Thanks for all you've done and taking the Time : )

[Rainemaker]

S1 was 1-2 yest picking up a B winner but A's had 50 cents juiced for a 30 cent loss on day

6-5 +1.84

S2 was 3-2 with a 3 dog winners, one of which was a B on Twins since I don't play these unless I specify I don't have prices for it though.

6-6... Way up.. Will edit and calculate if I have time later

[Rainemaker]

plays du jour

S1

Sea bosox fade (b)
Jays (b)
Twins (a)

Nats (a) tomorrow
BoSox (a) tomorrow

S2

Dodgers (a)
Seattle (a)
Pitt (a)
Pitt phils fade (a)

Milw (a) tomorrow
Braves (b) tomorrow
Braves miami fade (a) tomorrow

Watchlist

Streaking Winners - Cubs

Streaking Losers - Rox, Mets

[Rainemaker]

my strategy for today

All S1 games are spread out.. So I can start with Twins.. Chase w Jays, and Chase w Mariners late.

Starting to win a U.. Looking to cash a U and will stop if I do.

S2..
Notice Pirates are a double A bet and so are Braves tomorrow. Will do the same chasing these today and tomorrow if necessary.. Trying to win U and hopefully the series will do just that.

If it loses I will likely chase the next time I see an S2 double play in a C bet - if that loses. I will cut my losses or play the next as a D if I like it.

[Rainemaker]

tough day at the office

0-5 for these streakers yest with some real close late game losses.

Gotta take bad with good. Hopefully Julio Teheran regains form against Fish tonight for a nice dog chase win.. Will try to catch up with tracking later in day or over weekend.

[Rainemaker]

scratch early game

Pirates as a B series cancels out by current Chubby win streak.

Ditto for Twins B in S1 as Tampax on win streak, not to mention really tough to fade Odorizzi right now.

So that leaves us with...

S1

Sea bosox fade (c)
Jays (b)
Nats (a)
BoSox (a)

S2

Dodgers (b)
Sea (b)
Milw (a)
Ariz phils fade (b)
Dodgers Rox fade (a)

Watchlist

Streaking winners - cubs, rays, reds

Streaking losers - NYY, mets


Hope this info helps you win... BOL on how you choose to play it : )

[Rainemaker]

how i am playing it today

Seattle and Nats should be solid plays on S1... Would be closest to Stifler actual sys cause BoSox blew LY and Nats were solid playoff team and vs losing team in SD LY albeit they are a much different team this year than last. Won't play Jays cause the pitching matchup is sick and the way their pen cornholed me yest I just can't back that. Knuckleballers like Dickey can dazzle or suck Dickey no need to gamble there.


Braves chasing to win a u from what I lost yest in S2 chase from pirate loss... If that fails will chase with Doyers late -1... Sick price but I will do ML/RL combo and hope Kershaw removes head from @ss even if its against Rox you never know. He still should have enough pride to at least give me push if need be.

[imotiv8]

Sea bosox fade (c)? What does that mean?

You're doing a good job posting but sometime you use a lot of acronyms and I have no idea what you're talking about ....ex LY?

[Rainemaker]

LY = last year

Sorry for the acronyms hopefully you get the hang of em soon I use same ones a lot.

But am always here to ask.

Yep Seattle bosox fade I put play first and that one is fading Sawks as you can see Bosox also a play so it conflicts but the other is only an A...

I could just play braves Doyers chaser hard just as well that is play I feel strongest about

[Rainemaker]

S1 was 1-2 yest picking up a B winner but A's had 50 cents juiced for a 30 cent loss on day

6-5 +1.84

S2 was 3-2 with a 3 dog winners, one of which was a B on Twins since I don't play these unless I specify I don't have prices for it though.

6-6... Way up.. Will edit and calculate if I have time later

S2 calculated to 7-5... +5.63 thru games ending 5/13

[Rainemaker]

record through 5/14 bad day...

Here's the record and total using ABC

S1... 6-8 -6,02
S2... 7-9 broke even

My casualties how I bet it that day

S1 chase -4.2
S2 chase -1.19

[Rainemaker]

record thru last night

S1 8-9.... -3.42

S2 10-10... +4.6

My bet record

S1 2-0 +2.08.. (shaved down to -2.12 u off losing day Thurs)

S2 chaser 1-0 +1.. Caught that monkey

So combined -1.12 u loser past 2 days. I can live with that for now and up my unit to cover it in days to come.

[Rainemaker]

5/16 plays

S1

Jays as a C removed as they are on 3 game skid
Dodgers (a)
Seattle (a)

Tomorrow..

Brewers
Ariz phils fade
Dodgers rox fade

S2

Ariz phils fade (b)
Rays (a)
Reds (a)

Watchlist

Streaking winners - chubbies, white Sox, angels, Philly, and houston

Streaking losers - mets, yanks, jays, pitt

[imotiv8]

Question-Why do you remove the Jays because they are on a 3 game skid, your rules or Stif's?

[Rainemaker]

Stifmeister cancels out games with conflicting skids from what I understand. But mainly if you have two different play on teams going head to head or two different fade teams going head to head.

The game today is not one of these situations.

But if you think about it.. Why play on a team who was hot when they suddenly went cold? You would be playing on team who is cold - that contradicts what we are trying to do since we fade teams on cold streaks too.

Think of it as a play on both sides saving yourself juice.

In the short time we've tracked here, throwing these games out saved further damage, there will be times when it won't.

[Rainemaker]

keep in mind

You will only have this contradiction with S1 plays.. I've been thinking maybe of just doing S2 just because it starts directly after a hot or cold streak is snapped. So playing on these only... you only lose when teams follow up a streak with a streak in the opposite direction back to back.

Plus its a lot easier to track and focus on one system rather than 2. Now that we know this will never be the true Stifler system without his filter he used but at least it uses sound logic that I believe will turn out positive results.

Not expecting it to make anyone rich quick so playing it as such.

[Rainemaker]

0-fer Sat.

Luckily all of them were A plays and we laid off Jays C

S1.. 0-2

YTD... 8-11... -6.95 u

S2... 0-3

YTD... 9-13... +1

For today..

Jays (D) removed due to Jays skid plus Astros streak
Dodgers (b)
Mariners (b)
Brewers (a)
Ariz phils fade (a) removed because Ariz on skid plus phils streaking
Dodgers rox fade (a)

S2

Ariz phils fade (c) removed because Ariz on skid plus phils streaking
Rays (b)
Reds (b)
Brewers mets fade (a)
KC yanks fade (a)

Streaking winners - chubbies, white Sox, angels, Philly, and houston, detroit

Streaking losers - jays, pitt, A's, Rangers, Ariz

[Rainemaker]

i stand corrected

Yesterday I said the situation we talked about with conflicting streaks couldn't happen with S2 plays.. Well here it is today...

Play it as you see fit. If you cap games, have a favorite tout on it, fade touts, fade public etc... Play whatever you like.. There is a reason I keep putting it up there, but for tracking purposes it doesn't count for or against.

I am flipping over to S2 plays since this is not true Stifler sys backed up by years of tracking.. but will keep tracking both versions of this modified one to see what both can do in longer term.

I would not be surprised to see S1 take off now and S2 to go down.

BOL playing either sys or picking and choosing which ones to play or fade : )

[Rainemaker]

bonus plays

Under in cin/sfg... Adjusted era sys play under in game and or first 5 if you trust/don't trust BP (bullpens)

Under in chc/Pitt.. Same sys as above... By the looks of this line the wind must be blowing out at Wrigley. Will check umps and lineup to see if its worthwhile.

Orioles - Maiden Starter... The kid is ready says Showalter.. Trying to avoid sweep. This is a B if you played last weeks loser. If you are shaky on playing the kid I encourage the under as an alternative as Garret Richards has been sharp. But in my opinion this line is too good to be true for streaking Angels club vs no name. Plus Sundays are popular rest days for big name players so check your lineups always.

BOL on whatever you play or Fade

[Rainemaker]

not playing cubs under

Wind at 15 mph.. Over ump. Not touching that one.

[Rainemaker]

S1 for today

Can't lay off it...

Like both games for a variety of reasons. So I will parlay to cut down juice in Doyers game.

Kendrick one of the worst pitchers in NL so far this year and got pelted by doyers 1 month ago... so that game I played to have it win in 9 innings or less as action and the other is listed pitchers. Big pitching mismatch in sea/bos.. Sawk pitcher having control issues while the Paxton has been sharp.

Key injuries..

Troy Tulowitzki out.

David big sloppy Ortiz on bench.


2.5 u to win 4 u

[Rainemaker]

bonus bonus play

If you played the parlay that won above throw that on Cards -.5 first 5 even money.

[Rainemaker]

1-1 +1.1 (played wrong under)

Maiden won a B

Bonus sys thru these plays YTD +2.1

[Rainemaker]

Can't lay off it...

Like both games for a variety of reasons. So I will parlay to cut down juice in Doyers game.

Kendrick one of the worst pitchers in NL so far this year and got pelted by doyers 1 month ago... so that game I played to have it win in 9 innings or less as action and the other is listed pitchers. Big pitching mismatch in sea/bos.. Sawk pitcher having control issues while the Paxton has been sharp.

Key injuries..

Troy Tulowitzki out.

David big sloppy Ortiz on bench.


2.5 u to win 4 u

Close winner here cancelled out by close Loser in Cardinal game

Bonus Sys YTD +2.1

[Rainemaker]

yesterday's tally for 5/17

Avoided serious blackeyes cancelling out Jays and Ariz phils fade who would have lost a D and C...

S1

3-1 (2 B winners, 1 A loser, 1 A winner) YTD 11-12... -1.07 u

S2

2-2 (1 B winner, 1 B loser, 1 A winner, 1 A loser) YTD 11-15 +.69 u

[Rainemaker]

Todays plays 5/18

S1

Brewers (B)
Col phils fade (B) Phils stilll streaking so no play, plus Rox blow

tomorrow
Reds (a) on skid, will not play
Rays (a)


S2

Col phils fade (D) Phis still streaking so no play, plus Rox blow
Cards mets fade (B)
Angels (A)
Detroit (A)

Tomorrow
Reds (C) on skid, will not play
Cubs (A)
Minny pitt fade (A)
BoSox ranger fade (A)

Watchlist

Streaking winners - chisox, phils, astros, braves, nats, giants

Streaking losers - jays, A's, dbacks, marlins, reds, padres

[bking79]

so what ones do we follow we follow brewers b today?

[imotiv8]

i'm playing Brewers, Colorado, and Cardinals

[bking79]

ok cool im gonna ride then

[Rainemaker]

so what ones do we follow we follow brewers b today?

If you are doing S1 yes.. I am doing S2 making Tigs a play.. But why not just play Cards? Mets cant score and I am sure cards won't get thrown out at plate twice like last night..

They were talking last week how Harvey has tendency to overthrow at times.. He just can't do it all.

Cards are just too good. Its not even Fair.

[Rainemaker]

Scratch that.. Lackey ERA up over 5 on road and at night and Harvey hovering around 2 at home and at night..

Cards had to catch Red eye to NYC last night.. They are dogged for good reason.

[Rainemaker]

Sometimes it pays to look ahead at some of these series.. I think Cards have most upside.. Coming off first lost series of year.. If they don't win today I still dont see them getting swept by mets. If I were to lose a D with old Fat@ss throwing for mets on Wed. then I deserve to lose my money.

Mets can't hit RHP (right handed pitching) and you have 3 in a row Cards throwing at them. Lock it up.

[bking79]

Brewers b won so who is next